🌁📦🚛 AMAZON VS SF:
In 2021, Amazon was planning on a 650,000 SF distribution facility at 900 7th St. in SOMA. This property’s zoning specifically allows distribution.
The property is currently a vacant, dilapidated Recology truck yard. Ripe for enhancement and development in an industrial neighborhood.
💰Amazon paid $200mm for the land, & were planning on investing an additional $400mm into the project & neighborhood.
👷♂️💵 This distribution center would add 400 new jobs & gross receipts tax to city revenue. Not to mention the additional businesses and subcontractors in the area that would benefit from the development.
This project has been on hold since Supervisor Walton voted to block the allowable use on the spot in March 22’
🚫This means if the BOS doesn’t like your project for any reason, even if the project is fundamentally allowable, they can shut it down.
What company would want to enter such a hostile and unpredictable political market? We need to encourage development in our industrial neighborhoods, not discourage it!
#Amazon #SanFrancisco
Congratulations to @Scott_Wiener 🗳️Chakrabarti’s politics of hate — Hasan Piker rally, hiring antisemitic staff, demonizing Israel, attacking Scott’s identity — were forcefully rejected by San Francisco. Not a single precinct for Saikat.
🌁 IPO Breakout: The next Bay Area housing surge coming from IPO liquidity...
OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX (Engineering HQ, Figma, and Cerebras could create a historic wave of new Bay Area wealth...and home buyers.
Bay Area Millionaire Injection:
OpenAI: 1,500 to 2,500 Bay Area millionaires
Anthropic: 1,200 to 2,000 Bay Area millionaires
SpaceX: 150 to 500 Bay Area millionaires
Figma: 400 to 900 Bay Area millionaires
Cerebras: 250 to 600 Bay Area millionaires
Total impact: 3,500 to 6,500 new Bay Area millionaires
Bay Area $100 Millionaires:
OpenAI: 40 to 100
Anthropic: 50 to 125
SpaceX: 5 to 25
Figma: 10 to 30
Cerebras: 5 to 20
Total impact: 110 to 300 Bay Area $100 Millionaires
I went to @CasaAnalytics and the data already shows SF demand is TIGHT:
Parkside: 17 days on market
Central Sunset: 20 days
Cole Valley: 20 days
Ashbury Heights: 20 days
Inner Sunset: 21 days
Eureka Valley: 24 days
Noe Valley: 30 days
Pacific Heights: 12 days
Cow Hollow: 18 days
Average days on the market will compress, and home prices are about to SURGE.
Other US markets are suffering...
🎬 Los Angeles: High prices, high rates, and rising insurance costs are crushing affordability.
🤠 Austin: Too much inventory and weaker demand are forcing sellers to cut prices.
🗽 New York: Buyers are cautious as affordability worsens and some residents worry Zohran Mamdani’s policies could push wealth out of the city.
My prediction:
1) The strongest SF neighborhoods could compress from 20 to 30 days on market down to 12 to 20 days.
2) Prime neighborhood pricing could move 8% to 30% higher.
(Keep in mind IPO liquidity ramps on a 3-10 month horizon, bc of lockup periods)
3) Keep in mind most of these employees are at a family growth age -> more movement, more transaction volume,
4) San Francisco will overtake new york as the #1 housing market on earth before the end of 2026.
Interest rates, IPO liquidity, continual ideal weather are going to surge housing prices here in SF.
Casa is tracking all of this in real time, here in San Francisco.
Visit us at https://t.co/O6WQ8d1lGB
#HomeSearch #Housing #California #SanFrancisco