@bchesky@benhylak I think there is a limit to autonomy especially for Airbnb which makes discovery part of the joy. Not every online decision is treated equally.
@cperruna Organic growth decelerating to the high teens which isn’t huge for a young growth company. Convenience is also an embedded need in modern life so valuable despite environment. Regardless, I’m a fan of Tony and the team, they genuinely care about customer experience
Likely the exact reason the line exists. People are tied of optimization (and the extra costs associated) and hungry for a break from the artificial, exactly the solution a line solves. I’d argue people are waiting for the break just as much as the ice cream. This is why you see big reactions to new things, not because people think they are going to get their minds blown but because it’s a solution to forced presence
Two critical metrics in f&b retail to focus on are:
Sales Growth: more important than the actual figure is seeing strong MoM growth. Especially as a new business focusing on growth is more important than anything. You may start out with low sales but that may be for a variety of reasons. Worry more about sales not growing than the actual sales figure.
Usage Growth: this is growth in the amount of customers who visit one or more times per month (or per week depending on the nature of your product). For example, if you have 100 customers visiting at least one or more times per month you want to see that number grow every month.
If you’re growing both top line sales and retention/usage, things are likely working. The key however is long term orientation. Marketing blips can create a lot of noise but the real signal is in these metrics.
A great product feels simple. But simplicity isn’t where you start, it’s the result of the right thinking and the right work. The path from a hunch to a quality outcome is an act of controlled chaos: you follow an instinct into uncertainty, experiment until the shape of the thing becomes clear, then cut everything that doesn’t belong. The mess isn’t a detour from simplicity. It’s the only road to it
If your business cannot raise prices by a meaningful amount without suffering a disproportionate drop in demand, then you likely either: Are deliberately pursuing an everyday-low-price strategy or lack a truly durable competitive moat.
F&B is oversaturated in many cities. Ai won’t help with demand but maybe margins. Incremental f&b innovation is getting stale quickly. Young consumers already know this but they go for the accessible outing. Going to get tough out there unless you’re truly special.
The wrong type of losing is standard reduction while attacking the aspirational standard you were once striving for.
The right type of losing is when you investigate why you lost and reenergize yourself to try again with this edits.
Follow your interest. If you don’t think you have a strong interest in something that pulls you in, expand your circle of exposure, learning new things, connecting to new environments and people until you find that thing that pulls you in like gravity. Ideally, you find something that has a strong enough pull that you build some obsession around it.
The difficult thing is to find an interest so strong and then to trust that that’s the interest you should follow…
Coaching unmotivated people is not a wise use of time. There is also an overemphasis on coaching as the primary driver of developing people. Most people develop from within, and a robust incentive system is superior to coaching for influencing behavior. Ultimately, growth is the responsibility of the individual. While coaching should be available for those driven to seek it, the rest is up to them
Prediction: Ai and robotics will likely result in raising the human-premium effect. “Automated” will be the new "Budget," and "Human-Made" will be the new "Luxury."
The health and wellness craze in F&B is misunderstood. The majority want to feel virtuous but will always prize indulgence and affordability when the choice is real. The Erewhon crowd doesn’t go for the calories. They go for the status, which falsely reads as a trend. The core is mostly a small, high-income cohort whose spending gets mistaken for a mass market signal. It’s not that people don’t want to eat better, it’s that it’s often times not satisfying enough + overpriced.
Embracing randomness as much as possible is important. A busy, rigid schedule prevents opportunities to discover, learn, and connect with ideas and people who can have a monumental impact on your trajectory. Far more than your next meeting ever could.
The resistance to this is that the odds feel low, but they’re often worth it. Worst case, it refreshes your perspective. Randomness does not mean lazy. It means intentionally putting yourself in new environments.