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@ScottKennaird@reggiedunlopno4 @aprilevent @BBCNews https://t.co/gmcZQYbnW2
This is a link to the data, the first orange line is the date of the lockdown, and the second is when we can expect to see effects on the death rate due to lockdown.
@ScottKennaird@reggiedunlopno4 @aprilevent @BBCNews This means the rate in change was decling before this, national lockdown was on March 23rd and it takes about 23 days for any effect to be felt from this. So lockdown had no effect on when the deaths started to come down and there was no increased rate of decline after lockdown.
@ScottKennaird@reggiedunlopno4 @aprilevent @BBCNews Having conducted my own analysis using government data to show the rate of change of the daily deaths, it shows this has been steadily reducing since late September/ early October. you can see this in attached spreadsheet. the second orange line is when lockdown effects are felt
@ScottKennaird@reggiedunlopno4 @aprilevent @BBCNews You have to understand the turning point isn't when the cases top out. The important statistic is the rate of change of increase. And this was decreasing before lockdown 1 and lockdown 2.
@TheRealGavRoss@the_carr_fan@ladbible Lockdown stopped the spread and it will spread again as soon as usual life is resumed. If a vaccine isn't successful then there's no option but to let everyone out again eventually. If they're older when they catch it, they're more likely to die
@TheRealGavRoss@the_carr_fan@ladbible A biochemical engineer and a virologist are closely linked fields and both require a high knowledge of eachothers field.