Jacob Segal

Political Science Community College Professor and current Department Chair, father, life-partner

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@EdMorrissey @SenWarren do you vouch for attemped election stealer Trump?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@SeanTrende how can one "get" a country of 340 million people? So ridiculous

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@RichardHanania that post is just a list of insults

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@mdubowitz what about those captured?

[Rev. Benjamin Cremer @Brcremer]

Then Jesus said unto the sick, “you better have insurance.”

Then Jesus said unto the stranger, “are you here legally?”

Then Jesus said unto the hungry, “my taxes better not be paying for these loaves and fishes.”

Then Jesus said unto the poor, “this is your own fault.”

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@Heminator I wonder how many times he passed a cognitive test.

[Thunder Trip @ThunderTrip]

I can. I actually do the type of analysis that Mark is asking for.

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil. It also carries 35% of the world's seaborne urea and phosphate- the fertilizer that feeds the developing world.
When the Strait closed, the fertilizer didn't reroute. It stopped. 150+ tankers anchored outside the Gulf, unable to get war-risk insurance. The physical supply vanished.

What happened next:
Fertilizer: Urea jumped 30% to $550/ton. Ammonia breached $900/ton. Those aren't numbers that matter to Americans. Those are numbers that determine whether a smallholder farmer in Bihar applies fertilizer to her rice paddy or skips this season and prays. 300 million smallholders across Asia and Africa are making that calculation right now.

Food: The FAO Food Price Index hit 128.5 in March, climbing, not stabilizing. The World Food Programme projects an additional 45 million people facing food insecurity by end of 2026 if the conflict continues.

Fortune ran a headline: "Half the world's calories at risk."
Countries most exposed: India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Egypt. The countries that can least afford a food shock are the ones absorbing the worst of it.
The planting season: This is the part that's already locked in. Northern Hemisphere spring planting decisions were made in March and April, when the Strait was closed and fertilizer wasn't arriving. Farmers who couldn't afford $900/ton ammonia planted fewer acres or planted without fertilizer. Those decisions are now in the ground. The 2026 harvest is already compromised regardless of what happens with the deal.

The FAO's chief economist: "This logistics bottleneck has no viable workaround in the short term."

The International Crops Research Institute: "The war in West Asia is already being felt far beyond the region. It is reflected in rising fertilizer prices in rural India and in the shifting planting decisions of farmers across Africa."

The feedback loop: lower yields → higher grain prices → higher livestock feed → higher meat and dairy prices → food inflation everywhere, including the US.

This war was sold as an Iran problem. The fertilizer data says it's a global food problem.

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@CGasparino @AdamKinzinger maybe you rob banks

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@CGasparino he brought it up himself

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@mdubowitz can you comment on the effect of this war on the developing world in regard to shortages of oil, fertilizers etc.

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@shipwreckedcrew why would the DOJ not make an appearance when the federal government is being sued for 10 billion?

[Hollis Robbins @anecdotal]

@OrinKerr Specifically? The contours of the debates about use at the very least. Enough to work alongside an AI czar. https://t.co/sbnsG8hLB3

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@charlescwcooke @DrewSav partisanship is zealotry?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@JeffClarkUS has there been any weaponization in Trump's second term?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@RichardHanania define socialism

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@RandyEBarnett did clemson do that?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@omriceren fingers crossed?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@byelin can virginia try again?

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@SeanTrende @byelin or declare it the 52nd state after Canada

[Jacob Segal @JacobSegal1]

@GinsbergStuart @RealEmirHan