Jacobin

Family(wife/kids), guitars, pounding iron(gym), science(geek), hiking, aviation,traveling. Huge “Dolfan” and PSG fan. BMW's(own) & Boeing 777's-don't own..LOL!

[Mother Of Eagles 🦅 @CCknockout]

@GregAbbott_TX But forcing Bibles on kids in public schools is absolutely appropriate? Bigot on wheels.

[PhotographyAndShhh @ScanticAntiques]

@GregAbbott_TX "Government-owned schools cannot favor one religion over all others" oh wait...

https://t.co/VLXmx6kKDI

[Darius Simmons @kid_keviin]

DFW already has interfaith chapels with Christian services and existing wudu stations. Adding practical washing facilities in restrooms so people don’t flood the floors isn’t “favoring one religion.”

You’ve spent years pushing Christian symbols into public schools. Suddenly the Establishment Clause only applies one way?

[POWERBACK.us @PowerbackApp]

@GregAbbott_TX Does this mean you're against the 10 Commandments in Texas classrooms, too?

[Stephen @Stephen1427529]

@GregAbbott_TX Hey Greg, why is it illegal for businesses to boycott Israel in Texas? They can literally boycott the United States of America, but not Israel. You pathetic clown.

[HOUmanitarian ™ @HOUmanitarian]

@GregAbbott_TX @GovAbbottPress Election year dog whistle from the Governor who had no issue putting the 10 Commandments in public schools. When will Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist and other faiths be required to put up their own posters in ALL public schools too?

[George Noble @gnoble79]

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history

SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.

Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:

SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.

At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.

30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.

But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.

The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that kills the scarcity is what kills the price.

Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.

The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.

Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:

The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.

In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.

Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.

Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.

Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.

All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.

This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?

Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.

First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.

When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.

And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.

Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.

Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.

I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.

Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it.

SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.

This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.

[BlackSabbath @BlackSabbath]

Recorded: June 10, 1978
“Children of the Grave” Live at Hammersmith Odeon, London, England

[AIPAC Tracker @TrackAIPAC]

59 years ago today, Israel attacked the USS Liberty, killing 34 crew members and wounding 171 more:

[Jacobin @Jacobin777]

@RupertLowe10 You're just a bumbling idiot who like predecessors before you rely on ignorance, bigotry and racism.

[Gavin Newsom @GavinNewsom]

For so many years people have been saying that Patrick Bateman and I look alike. Now this pic has been going all over the place. What do you think?

[Ana Kasparian @AnaKasparian]

Sure, I might be untalented. Up to others to decide.

But I can deduce that voting “no” on legislation that would cut arms to Israel amounts to supporting U.S. funded arms to Israel…as they carry out war crimes and atrocities daily.

Those crimes are committed with zero fear of blowback thanks to the defensive capabilities Americans are forced to bankroll.

In addition to voting no on that legislation last year, in 2021 you originally (and correctly) voted “no” on a bill to funnel an extra $1 billion to Israel on top of the $3.8 Billion we already send them every year. You got a little pressure from your corrupt colleagues, changed your vote to “present” and then wept about it…literally. Is that what political “talent” looks like?

Israel was enjoying an economic surplus that year. We, on the other hand, were not.

As for cashing checks, I’d respectfully ask you to remember who pays yours. It’s the people you’re lying to right now.

[BlackSabbath @BlackSabbath]

March 29, 1971
Sam Houston Coliseum
Houston, Texas

[Jimmy Page @JimmyPage]

As a footnote to Physical Graffiti, I thought you might like to hear the original home demo, recorded in my studio at Plumpton Place of a piece of music that was going to surface as 10 Years Gone.

I presented this rough mix to the band at Headley Grange in order to do this for real. Robert Plant came up with some lyrics for my music that were extraordinary and then we arrive at the song 10 Years Gone.

https://t.co/8ltVNK2LbF

[Polymarket Football @PolymarketBlitz]

Malik Willis - 4.37
De'Von Achane - 4.32
Jaylen Waddle - 4.37
Tutu Atwell - 4.32

The Dolphins are even FASTER without Tyreek Hill.

[Jacobin @Jacobin777]

@mtgreenee As a Left Leaning Centrist, even though I disagree with you on a number of items (which is perfectly fine), I believe you have shifted to become one of the more rational Republicans. Please reconsider!

[Drunk Journalist @drunkJournalist]

Chaos in Emirates flight at SFO Airport. Delayed by 3 hours after many Indian H1B holders bound for India disembarked from the plane after hearing the news of $100K fees for H1B.

Many Indian passengers apparently left the aircraft after receiving calls from their employers not to leave the US.

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

Global investors anticipate two rate cuts from the Fed this year and more next year. This is a reasonable forecast and consistent with my baseline, but I don’t hold it with any confidence. It is increasingly likely the Fed will sit on its hands and not change monetary policy in 2025.

[Araquel Bloss @AraquelBloss]

You are advocating for war crimes against a civilian population - half children - and you do so from your government X account.

@CIJ_ICJ
@xIsraelExposedx
@FranceskAlbs
@UN
@realDonaldTrump
@RealCandaceO
@SecRubio
@marcorubio
@RepThomasMassie
@JDVance
@CNN
@FoxNews
@AJEnglish

[Suppressed News. @SuppressedNws]

@RepFine What a scumbag. May you receive everything you wish for Palestinians, tenfold.