Jacob’s Analysis

Counterterrorism & Counterinsurgency Analysis.
War is complicated; I try to explain it.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

https://t.co/Jt2oQuDEVj

[Benjamin Strick @BenDoBrown]

Devices carried by Colombian mercenaries were tracked moving from Colombia to Sudan, via UAE, Somalia, Chad and Libya, placing them in El Fasher during the RSF's violent takeover last October.

New report from @just1nlynch at CIG shows how they got there and what they did.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Strikes on Yemen must be coming at some point; I wonder what the price of oil will be then.

[Israel Defense Forces @IDF]

⭕️ Following missile launches by the Iranian regime, the IDF has identified a missile launched from the Houthis toward Israel.

This is just another example of how far the Iranian regime has extended its terror across the Middle East.

[Disclose.tv @disclosetv]

NEW - Striking footage reportedly captures the moment an Iranian ballistic missile explodes right next to U.S. troops as they take cover at an American base on March 30.

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

Here are the confirmed casualties across the countries that have been targeted by US-Israeli and Iranian attacks as of March 26, 11:30 GMT.⁠

🔗: https://t.co/SPItGzmgYF

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

MBS & Saudi Arabia were arguably a driving force behind the attacks in the first place

Hopefully this will lead to crushing the Houthis in Yemen

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are "inching toward" joining the US/Israeli war against Iran, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. Gulf countries are "getting tougher" following persistent attacks

2. Saudi Arabia has agreed to let American forces use its King Fahd air base

3. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is "close to a decision to join the attacks"

4. "It is only a matter of time before the Kingdom enters the war," insider sources say

Gulf countries are being "pulled deeper" into the Iran War.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@BRICSinfo It’s really unfortunate that the secular government holds 0 power in comparison to the IRGC, and whatever they say regarding what Iran ‘wants’ also matters exactly 0

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Huge for Ukraine, they now "hold some cards" when it comes to negotiations with Trump for additional support.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to BBC, citing officials from the Ukrainian Air Force, Ukrainian counter-drone operators have already carried out successful shoot-downs of Iranian drones launched against Gulf nations. Ukraine sent roughly 230 specialists to Gulf countries to aid in air defense efforts against Iranian drones.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@ShehuSani Define "withstand"

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@WarMonitor3 Situation is purposefully vague, whatever commanders are left of the IRGC are certainly running the day-to-day operations.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Nice way of signaling to other Arab states you are not completely in bed with the West.

MBS has aims of regional hegemony and that requires regional support.

[Foreign Ministry 🇸🇦 @KSAmofaEN]

#Statement | The Foreign Ministry expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation in the strongest terms of the blatant Israeli aggression targeting military infrastructure in the south of the Syrian Arab Republic, in a flagrant violation of international law and Syria’s sovereignty.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

France has been positioning itself as the answer to 'what happens if America leaves NATO'

Macron seems to think a 13% increase in French defense spending is enough to fill the gap...

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

We remain resolute.

This morning in the Mediterranean, the French Navy intercepted and boarded another vessel from the shadow fleet, the Deyna.

The war involving Iran will not deflect France from its support for Ukraine, where Russia’s war of aggression continues unabated.

These vessels, which evade international sanctions and violate the law of the sea, are profiteers of war. They line their pockets while helping finance Russia’s war effort.

We will not allow it.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@KobeissiLetter Modern Monetary Theory posits governments cannot default on debt denominated in their own currency, and that seems to be the lie most members of U.S. Congress have sold themselves !

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Yemen's civil war is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran for hegemony in the MENA region.

Iran wants its proxy on the doorstep of its biggest rival, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The Kingdom and the Emirates want a moderate Sunni ruler, friendly to them and not Iran.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Over 30% of global energy flows through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb combined, Houthis have been absent from the conflict so far, either fearing a Saudi/U.S./Israel response or are waiting for IRGC commands to join the fray.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

In an interesting report, according to Tasnim News Agency, citing Iranian officials, if the U.S. conducts a “military attack” (1) on the strategically and economically important Kharg Island, Iran will threaten shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. This is notable as the Houthis, who Iran used as their primary executor of their strategy to threaten shipping in the strait and the Red Sea in the past, have yet to enter the conflict.
1: Assuming this means a ground operation, as the U.S. has already conducted strikes on the island.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Yesterday, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a ceasefire after nearly three weeks of "open war."

4 days ago, Pakistan blew up a drug rehab center in Kabul, killing & injuring hundreds of people.

Since February 27, Pakistani airstrikes (81 in total) have displaced roughly 115,000 Afghanis.

That is to say, the PM & Army Chief may be a bit busy at the moment.

[Baba Banaras™ @RealBababanaras]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has reportedly asked Pakistan to repay a USD 6.3 billion loan after Pakistan failed to honor the bilateral defense pact, under which an attack on one is considered an attack on both. Saudi officials are reportedly unable to reach Pakistan’s PM & army chief.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@unusual_whales So we’ve solved homelessness !?!?

[Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 @DefenceHQ]

Update on UK operations in the Middle East, 20 March 2026.

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

@WarMonitor3 Where the troops land will be very revealing concerning the overall strategy of the US

[Jacob’s Analysis @JacobsAnalysis]

Very interesting considering the downed KC-135 and six servicemembers on board were all based out of MacDill AFB. Coincidence?

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Shelter-in-place has been ordered due to a threat made against MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, which houses the Headquarters of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).