Olivia
Online
Jade Sparkle ✨
@JadeSparkle39
🏀🍻🍲✈️🎵📸🎮♣️♦️♥️♠️📈📉
My stock trading journal, thoughts, and ideas. Occasional rants in various topics. Not financial advice.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined February 2012
773 Following
137 Followers
605 Posts
Pinned Tweet
Safe to say Trump's pick for new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is the main catalyst today (Friday 1/30/26)?
$XLU (Utilities): -0.08%
$XLB (Materials): -1.46% $GLD $SLV Scary 👻
$XLF (Financial): -0.21%
$XLI (Industrial): -0.25%
$XLP (Consumer Staples): +1.68% 👈 This sector has been heating up and I don't think it's stopping anytime soon. I see monthly breakout and it may start the next leg? $KO $KMB $PG
$XLV (Health Care): +0.60%
$XLY (Consumer Discretionary): -0.02% $TSLA doing the heavy lifting with Space X news
$XLRE (Real Estate): +0.15%
$XLE (Energy): +1.07% 🛢️ $XOM
$XLC (Communication Services): +0.24% I guess $META is doing the lifting
$XLK (Technology): -2.04% 💩
$IGV (Expanded Tech-Software): -2.12% 🤖 $APP Ouch. At least $NOW is looking better (that's what my leap contract is telling me 😉 )
$ESPO (Gaming and eSports): -4.51% 👺 $TTWO got pwned (pun intended). Why the big drop? I guess it's profit taking. Looking at weekly, I think it's going to keep going down.
$VIX: +3.32% 😟 closed at 17.44 and now above EMA 50
Buckle up...
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh:
1. Youngest Fed Governor in history during 2008 Financial Crisis
2. Said the Fed waited too long to raise interest rates in 2022
3. Said the Fed lost credibility by overstimulating post-COVID
4. Said QE inflates asset bubbles and worsened inequality
5. Claims to support a rules-based Fed, not discretionary policymaking
6. Wants a smaller Fed balance sheet and more focus on price stability
A new era of monetary policy is ahead of us.
NOT SURE why people dog my $VIX signal.
This thing is right almost 90% of the time in conjunction with $SPY.
It was right Thursday July 23rd, up 10% and called for a rally within two days, we got it.
It was right this last Wednesday, up 10% and called for a rally. We got it Thursday.
It was right yesterday, down 10% and called for the sell off within two days, so far getting it.
When the $VIX moves up 10% or down 10% or more within a single day, it typically indicates a reversal on the #SP500 within two days.
This is insane.
Every single time the S&P 500 was within 3% of all time highs while the Nasdaq was down 8% or more, the market rallied.
This has only happened 10 times since 2000. We're in one right now.
QQQ forward returns after this divergence:
• 1 month: +4.5% median (78% win rate)
• 3 months: +8.0% median (89% win rate)
• 6 months: +11.1% median (89% win rate)
• 1 year: +13.3% median (100% win rate)
SPY forward returns:
• 3 months: +6.0% median (100% win rate)
• 6 months: +7.4% median (100% win rate)
• 1 year: +14.3% median (100% win rate)
SPY has never been lower 3 months, 6 months, or 1 year after this signal. Not once in 26 years.
When the broad market is near highs but tech is selling off, that's rotation, not recession. Tech always catches up.
So what should you do? Buy low when people are scared.
100% Accurate!
Midterm years since 1950.
This is the 5th time ever QQQ has
▪ Had a 6d losing streak
▪ With a total return of -5% or worse
▪ While not already in a bear market
Want to guess how many of those fell into a bear market before hitting a new all time high?
ZERO.
$VIX - A few hours later finally closes above 20. Market finally doesn't feel confident that this is just a dip.
Semis now pushing deeper into fear and approaching capitulation. Just like euphoria drove prices higher panic will drive them irrationally lower which will create value and opportunity again.
This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.
Market seems to be reacting to a few things:
- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand
- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular
- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing
- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway
Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.
Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.
As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.
Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?
$MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD
$SNDK
Tech always innovates
to think that memory prices are going to continue to rise means that you think Tech is going to stop innovating and not come up w/ a work around imo
Just some TLDR news:
- $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory.
- Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments.
- Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b
- $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr.
- SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory.
- SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER).
- $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing.
- $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion
- Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B)
- 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing
- $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations.
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck).
- $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market.
Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar).
- $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract
- JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
- Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production.
- From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages.
- Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others.
- Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
My history career as a trader
I've made my living trading futures contracts since I was 29 years old. I am 80 next year. I love trading. It is why I still do it and write about it. I cannot imagine life without market speculation, but I suppose that day will come.
I was not profitable immediately. I left the advertising agency business in 1975. I worked for one of the largest ad agencies in the world and had serious reasons to believe I would have named VP while still in my 20s.
The story of how I ended up at the Chicago Board of Trade is a two to three chapter story, I won't take it up in this post.
By the way, I hate X because serious engagement no longer happens. If you enjoy my "old stories" please let me know who you are. If there is enough interest I would post some of the book I am writing about my life as a commodity trader.
In 1981 when I started Factor LLC as a self-funded trading firm. It was profitable from the start although the firm has had four losing years. The average of the four was -8%. Minor, but losses nevertheless. Last losing year was 2013 at -15% or so.
But during the first four years I cannot even remember how many accounts I blew. Some blew up quickly. Others lured me into think I was on to something only to have the account bleed to death slowly.
Continental Grain wanted us to open accounts of our own with at least $10,000 to $20,000 -- that way we would take our trading seriously. That was serious money for me at the beginning.
So I would open an account and try trading grains with fundamentals or livestock with cycles.
Back then hardly anyone kept charts except point and figure charts, so when a friend bought me a 5th edition of the Edwards and Magee book in early 1978 my life changed. Suddenly I had a frame of reference with which I could understand price discovery.
So my next account was looking for classical chart patterns. But with this I struggled at first, but at least I did not blow up that account.
Yet it was not until mid-1979 that I became meaningfully profitable. This was five years after my first trade -- and that time spent working for the world's most prominent FCM at its Chicago headquarters.
But slowly I kept solving problems. That is what trading really is -- a huge problem solving game. Those that break even until they figure it out stand a chance.
1980 was hugely profitable
As was the first half of 1981.
That is when I decided it was time. I sold my commercial business to a good broker friend, quite customer business and incorporated Factor Research and Trading as a proprietary self-funded account at the Board of Trade.
There have been struggles along the way. Problem solving never ends. When one is kind of solved the next one pops up. Being a self-funded professional commodity trader is not easy work or everyone would be doing it.
There was about a decade I too a hiatus in the late 1990s/early 2000s to devote myself to charitable non-profit work, including becoming an NGO with the United Nations.
When I came back to trading in 2006 everything had changed. Trades were made on a computer using a computer. I was used to calling my orders into the pits.
I dramatically changed my risk management protocol in
I actually seriously wondered whether I could remember how I traded and whether my style would still work.
2007 was profitable, and 2008 was my last triple digit annual return. My style still worked.
But my challenges were not over. 2013 was the worst of the four losing years I've had in my 46 years of trading.
The why is a whole long story I won't get into here. It's too long a story.
But the episode resulted in the most dramatic changes in risk management I had even taken. This too is another story unto itself.
Anyway, here I am, still trading cause I love it. And because it has been very profitable for me.
I totally disbelieve that us average humans can run $10,000 into $1 million in a few years. I've done and a lot more, but that by trading in six different decades - the 1970s through the 2020s. I hope I can someday claim seven decades.
My main measure of success has not been ROR for years and never was win rate. All the changes I have made since 2014 have been aimed at cutting asset volatility to the nubs. I feel fortunate that I have been able to this, not have but a few small losing months in a decade.
ROR has not been my concern. From the early 1980s I believed that if I sought excellence in the things I could control that the profits would work themselves out.
This has been the case.
My observation of the Z gens is that they have expectations in trading that are 3 to 4 standard deviation affairs. Good luck with that one, Zers.
Thank about it. Renaissance Technology is the single most profitable trading firm in the world with an average ROR in the high 40s, low 50s.
Stan Druckenmiller is the best independent trade alive IMO. He averages in the 40s.
Back when Jack Schwager included me in a Market Wizards book he did extensive verification. I provided something like 18 years of documented performance using monthly statements reconciled with a CFTC performance table and IRS statements. Jack calculated that my average compound ROR was in the low 50s.
I do not accept Jack's numbers. In the first place, prop traders should NEVER use compound growth. We are always taking money out of accounts.
My stats put me in the low to mid 40s. But that is with only millions of AUM. Stan does his 40s with billions. There is a huge difference, some of you understand this, some of you don't, yet.
Why am I telling you all of this? Perhaps I am not talking to you, but to those Z and M gens who aspire to be career speculators.
Tame your expectations. There are massive data that conclusively places the odds of success for an aspiring trader becoming a career trader at 3 in a thousand.
You can be one of those 3 -- but believe me there will be reasons why that you might not yet understand.
There are a few things you need to do to have career trading become you.
I recommend futures, not equities. The leverage is magic, but know it is also dangerous.
Do not expect to be profitable for four or five years. If it is three, then great. Your job in the meanwhile is to learn how to lose. Great traders only become great traders because they became skilled at losing. Lose your capital and game over for you.
Next, get rid of social media. It is a trap. Follow me if you must, but turn your eyes and ears away from anyone claiming big profits of knowing where some markets is going.
You need a starting point. Put together some rules, if that is your thing, and commit to them. Bet far less than 1% of your capital on any given trade. Don't day trade. Learn to hold positions overnight and for days.
The biggest crock I hear from some of you is that you need to day trade to make enough money to become serious hold traders. The faulty logic of this idea is massive.
You don't want to do it the way I suggest? That's fine. Everyone needs to find their own way, so welcome to the landmine.
Trading is a math problem to solve. Price is all that matters. Fundamentals are meant to decisive you. Everything you could possibly know about a market is already reflected in price. Price is king.
When I started at the CBOT there were local traders and pit brokers who had fought on Omaha Beach in WW2. It was my father's generation who owned most of the memberships.
They all had the same advice. Cut your losses really quickly and have some technique that allows you to let profits grow. Small losses and much larger profits is the only math that works. Ignore me on this at your own peril.
Seriously, if I am not boring you to death but instead you find my history as a trader told in story form to be interesting, let me know. If I happen to follow you, DM a message.
I am slowly bringing together so many stories I have as a trader. Being a career trader, especially one that traded at an exchange and for the famed Commodities Corp., my life has been crazy. It has been one interesting event after another.
The people I have known and still know. The crazy trades I have been in. The places I have been. I sometimes ask my wife to pinch me so that I can wake up from this life as a full time commodity futures contracts for my own risk.
$QQQ with an AVWAP from the ceasefire gap up day - everyone on average is underwater from that day now.
VIX guide to make best decisions.
At 30: You start smiling
At 50: You say work overtime
At 80: You buy and go away for a month
If you're serious about Investing. Now is the best time to look at this VIX chart.
Every year we get few pops to 30
Every few years we get a pop to 50
Every five years or so we get a pop to 80
You will see this play out over and over.
11 years in a row July finished green for the S&P 500. We are on pace to break a decade long winning streak.
Everyone knows momentum trades eventually unwind, but differentiating between a prolonged unwind, and a brief pullback in momentum is always challenging, as they look similar technically, at first. Even more challenging, is transitioning a portfolio from momentum into cash and/or other categories at the perfect time, at the perfect speed. Hindsight is always 20/20 in markets, and most of the reflective opinions you see in times like this are pure hindsight.
This market has, for 3-years straight, rewarded trend + momentum riding. The best performers have attached themselves to that trend for years, rightfully so. Instead of managing risk on dips, traders & investors (including myself) have gotten conditioned to double-down on risk in these moments. This is the first momentum sell-off over that extended period where that risk has not been rewarded.
I've given back a huge amount of gains from this year, now down to just +160% YTD, but perspective helps. My past 1-year performance at +584%, and my past 2.5-year performance (since I started sharing the consolidated portfolio publicly) is still at +3,000%. This gives me confidence in my ability to recalibrate and adjust if the market regime does change for a longer period. My biggest mistakes over this period were A) violating simple technical rules about single-stock risk (which I usually follow) and B) getting increasingly greedy with leverage during the best 1-year sprint of my career. In a way, both of those mistakes are intimately related.
If you've been struggling these past 2 months, just know you're not alone! Yes, the S&P-500 has barely budged, but most of us on this platform are trading & investing single stocks, the best of which have seen absolute carnage over the past 4-8 weeks. This is the biggest 1-month drawdown for momentum stocks in history, according to both the Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs momentum indexes. It's important to remember that momentum stocks are the inherently the best performing stocks in bull markets, but they bite back hard when sentiment & speculative enthusiasm roll over.
The bottom may be near for several stocks (at least temporarily), but the volatility will likely continue until we get a more stable macro backdrop. In the background, yields are pushing 5%, oil is pushing $100/barrel & tariffs are resurfacing. In the foreground, we have live recalibration of strategy & rethinking of narrative happening in the most important industry in the world (and the market).
I appreciate all of you who take the time to read & engage with my posts, and listen to my Spaces. It sincerely means a lot to me to have earned your ear over the years. But, I know a big part of that is transparency, and so I don't want to be one of those who hide or go quiet during times like this. Markets are not easy, and fast regime-changes and steep pullbacks are when the important lessons are learned, and when transparency is most important of all!
Keep your head up! Have a great weekend friends. and get some rest. Cheers 🍻
Very orderly. $QQQ
Steve Goldstein: Why Looking at Your P&L Destroys Your P&L. I highly recommend this read! ( i did not check it to see who wrote it but who cares...)
https://t.co/k4W0piOnVU
$META just closed below its 200-day moving average 🚨 The last time META went from a close above the 200-day to a close below it, the stock went on to plunge 21% over the next 9 weeks 📉 📉
Level of interest = AVWAP from April high, just ahead in #Bitcoin
Last Seen Users on Sotwe
おこめ
Seen from Japan
The_dissented_angel
Seen from Brazil
Coco Line 🔞 / FUREAST 2026
Seen from United States
Ozza
Seen from Indonesia
lesbians only 🥰💦😜
Seen from Oman
Top trans all the time!!!
Seen from Switzerland
Carlos Barbi
Seen from Mexico
monica.
Seen from Italy
🇵🇸 Matías Bryan O. (Tochiトチ) ❁
Seen from United States
Moms With Boys
Seen from Turkey
Trends for you
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
241.1M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119.1M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
112.5M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.8M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
107.1M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
98.2M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.2M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
91.4M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
88.8M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
82.7M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
74.2M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
71.6M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
70.3M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.7M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
64.5M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
64.5M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.4M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.8M followers
Selena Gomez
@selenagomez
61.8M followers
X
@x
60.8M followers