James Loughridge

Economics & strategy @PwC_AU // Former @PwC_UK
Views expressed are my own.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@TMFScottP Fundamentally it all comes down to who you think should decide how you individuals can spend their money - the government or the person who earned it.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist .. much more important to consumption and economic outcomes over the next 12 months IMO. 2/2

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist I'm hesitant to conclude how the wealth effect will play out even if we hit -10% nationally. Growth in real consumption is coming from older demographics with paid off mortgages... If assets drop 10% will it materially impact their spending? Probably not. Unemployment rate 1/x

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist Great analysis as always.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist Hope that's a typo... Shouldn't

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@AvidCommentator A real chart crime to start the y axis at 40... but the substance of the point still stands.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@TheKouk I agree there are a multitude of factors beyond tax policy that impact prices. But to claim whether there is/isn't an impact requires comparison of each respective market against a base case projection in the absence of policy change - not a cross jurisdiction comparison.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@TMFScottP Enjoy your break Scott

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist Frustrates me to no end when I hear "it's a supply issue." Prices are set at the intersection of supply and demand - it can never just be one sided.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@DrCameronMurray @vetementsiaga Adjusted based on CPI I assume? Not WPI which matters much more to wage earners.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@AvidCommentator Fiscal capacity, economies of scale, global influence - all reasons headline growth does matter. But it shouldn't be pursued at the expense of impacts on the lives of everyday people, which has been the problem in the UK and Aus.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@peter_tulip My point stands: it’s not just about room size, it’s about boarding vs apartments. The court found the need for boarding was so great that even non-compliant rooms outweighed new luxury units. Framing it as small vs large ignores the difference in purpose.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@peter_tulip Because if prices crash and there is a systemic wave of defaults - the two entities involved in the transaction (mortgagee and bank) won't wear the cost, the taxpayer will.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@TMFScottP Scott, NDIS will cost $52B+ next year alone! Tax cuts will cost $3.4B on average over 5 years.

I can't understand your fixation with measures that make our tax system (albeit marginally) fairer and more efficient at relatively low cost - whole ignoring the elephant in the room.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@SHamiltonian A political reckoning only if the bubble doesn't pop first...

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@IFM_Economist This easing phase *should* be gradual and modest - I can easily see a scenario where central banks around the world chase 0 rates again in the medium term, all because structural reform for growth is hard and cutting the cash rate isn't. Hope I'm wrong.

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@AvidCommentator Every responsible angle - as long as it continues to pump prices

[James Loughridge @JamesLoughridge]

@TMFScottP Agreed but it was a tax reform already on the table. I will convince you yet!