I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this. California will hit tank bottoms for jet and diesel by July 4th.
The Asian import arbitrage is dead, local refining is tapped, and none of this is reversible for 12-18 months.
Could this be the Energy Crisis' Lehman moment?
Intertwining our defense technological development w/the Israelis, or any foreign nation, is foolish & dangerous.
Section 224 of the NDAA must be rejected.
My 1st article for @RStatecraft explains why: https://t.co/HUtS2qNITX
New @joekent16jan19 for RS: Israel's supporters know the jig is up and the American people don't want to fork over billions for its wars anymore, so they are going to try to do this in the darkness. Not America First.
https://t.co/JnRF3K3Glf
NEW @blaise_malley: Trump taps Bill Pulte to lead US spy agencies
“[Pulte] has zero experience in the IC and no formalized training, which is troubling considering how volatile the world is right now," says @JamesWebb_16.
https://t.co/6C9LswZTzQ
MORE RE YESTERDAY'S LEAK ABOUT THE PHONE CALL BETWEEN POTUS AND BIBII
Barack Ravid at Axios should be fired. Reason: his story was largely fabricated by those leaking anonymously leaking to him. The media need to take seriously the accuracy of what they report and these media companies need to clean up their messes. Axios should issue an immediate correction and apology, and the DOJ/FBI should open a criminal investigation today. A criminal investigation is warranted because of the nature of the leak and the purpose, which was to damage relations between our country and Israel, give aid and support to the enemy, and influence the course of the war/negotiations in a way that is harmful to our country.
I have already commented on the actual substance of the call: Israel must be free to destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah continues to rain thousands of missiles and drones against Israel, at the direction of its Iranian regime masters. Israel is a sovereign nation that must and will protect its people. Let's recall that Hezbollah has killed hundreds of Americans, including Marines, over the years. They are doing us a favor as well by taking on Hezbollah, which we've refused to do for decades.
Moreover, Iran must not be able to dictate terms of any agreement, including its demand to protect Hezbollah should any deal be struck (and, obviously, I've made my opposition to any deal known -- the regime needs to be eliminated if we, in our country, as well as the rest of the world, are to be finally free of the Islamist nuclear and terror threat -- see my monologue last Sunday on Fox).
@awbitcoin@joekent16jan19 Hard pass. Just give me some new blood who understands collection, analysis, and how to stiff arm attempts at foreign manipulation
To say he’s woefully unqualified is still a massive understatement. This guy isn’t even qualified enough to tie Tulsi’s or @joekent16jan19 ‘s shoelaces.
https://t.co/Tpg1oMSZUp
One of these heads of state is communicating in an authoritative way, and it isn't the one who heads a superpower.
What Trump needs to say is something like, "I have told the Israeli's that they will cease combat operations in Lebanon so that a regional cease-fire can take hold, or else we will stop giving them aid."
That is the kind of leadership the American people expect, deserve, and that will end the conflict.
שוחחתי הערב עם הנשיא טראמפ ואמרתי לו שאם חיזבאללה לא יחדל לתקוף את ערינו ואזרחינו - ישראל תתקוף מטרות טרור בביירות.
עמדתנו זו עומדת בעינה.
במקביל, צה״ל ימשיך לפעול כמתוכנן בדרום לבנון.
Another reason to just walk away.
Does America benefit at all from playing referee between Israel & Lebanon?
Prior to the war, Iran couldn’t dictate terms in Lebanon, but their control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them the ability to do so.
Cut our losses & just leave.
Everyone should read what Senior Vice President of Exxon Neil Chapman says about the oil price surge coming in 2-3 weeks
The next wave of the energy shock is approaching fast
Artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain, do not mature through relationships, and do not know from within what love, work, friendship or responsibility mean. Nor do they have a moral conscience, since they do not judge good and evil, grasp the ultimate meaning of situations, or bear responsibility for consequences. They may imitate or even simulate, but they do not understand what they produce, for they lack the affective, relational, and spiritual perspective through which human beings grow in wisdom. #MagnificaHumanitas
Something I think people don't fully understand is that global oil inventories don't need to hit zero to cause massive price havoc.
If the system dips below ~7 billion barrels, circulation seizes up and the energy system fails.
Markets will push up prices to avert systemic failure *before* that happens.
Trump's war brought us from >8 billion barrels in Feb to ~7.6 billion today.
At these prices, if Hormuz stays closed into September, we'd be at ~6.8 billion barrels -- which is below critical levels.
Thus, oil prices will spike *before* September to destroy demand and keep inventories intact.
That level of spike -- to $150 or even $200/barrel -- will cause "severe economic contraction" in 3Q2026 according to Rapidan, a top-notch shop.
In other words, if Trump doesn't make concessions to reopen Hormuz imminently -- and perhaps even if he does! -- we're looking at a global recession.
https://t.co/dV1KSCE7Dy