Former MI6 chief, Sir Alex Younger gives some Brexit truths.
“Putin would’ve been absolutely delighted by our decision (to leave the EU) and so would Xi.”
“Particularly since I've left office and I've travelled around Europe, I'm profoundly depressed.
“Just nobody mentions the UK. We've made ourselves irrelevant. And this is extraordinary. The beginning part of this century, we were the dominant force. France has effectively eclipsed us and you just don't hear a discussion of us.”
“I think Brexit has Brexit has marginalised us. It was kind of intended to do exactly that.”
That’s a new variation of the “NATO promised it wouldn’t expand” myth.
Undeterred by Gorbachev himself calling it a myth, the promise not to border russia is now claimed to be from when NATO was founded. These people have apparently never heard of Norway, a NATO founding member that borders russia.
As it happens, that’s also when the Baltic countries signalled their desire to join NATO in 1949, pointing out that only the temporary soviet occupation prevented them back then. Their letters were officially acknowledged.
The reality is that every country has the right to choose its own defence alliances. This is a basic sovereign right in international law. russia has repeatedly signed international agreements pledging to respect this. And Putin did not oppose the Baltics joining NATO.
The idea that russia has been perpetually aggrieved by countries joining NATO is relatively recent revisionism to justify russia’s descent back into authoritarianism, imperialism, and its complete failure to offer anything else to its citizens.
International law - and the right of our countries to exist in friendship with other democracies- is not going to be suspended just to feed the contrived grievance narrative of a genocidal terrorist state.
With Covid receding, another pandemic stalks humanity. I’m referring, of course, to the scourge of awful takes by IR specialists on Ukraine.
Their harebrained calls for “peace” betray an embarrassing ignorance of the subject, and they need to stop.
My latest in The Detox 🧵
Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
This is going to hurt me, more than it hurts you, but here's a deliberately provocative 🧵 on the aftermath of the G7 and NATO summits. TL;DR: The West is at war, but it doesn't really know why.
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