Amazing event tonight at @iealondon in Westminster. 🇬🇧
Book launch and panel discussion on the topic of “The Great Stagnation: Why Britain Stopped Growing”. Featuring shadow chancellor @griffitha
Lots of talk about the Bank of England (BoE) unwinding its Quantitative Easing (QE) program these days, but the real story is the toxic addiction to public debt and the inevitable failure of money printing.
Here's what’s happening:
1️⃣ The original sin: QE should never have happened. It was a reckless monetary experiment that distorted price signals and served as a giant credit card for big government, enabling politicians to rack up massive public debt and predictably ignite inflation.
2️⃣ The mechanics: Under Quantitative Tightening (QT), that printed cash is finally being destroyed. Because interest rates have rightly risen to fight inflation, the gilts bought during the cheap-money era have naturally fallen in value, and the variable interest rate paid by the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) on its reserves has sharply increased.
3️⃣ The active vs. passive dilemma: There is a fierce debate over how to unwind this mess. "Passive QT" means holding the bonds until they mature. This avoids selling them now and crystallising capital loss, but it leaves excess fiat sloshing around in the economy for years and bleeds daily interest. "Active QT" (this is the current approach of the BoE) rips the band-aid off by selling bonds immediately to shrink the money supply faster, but it locks in catastrophic financial losses at the absolute worst time.
4️⃣ The Bill Comes Due: Regardless of the method chosen, the Treasury now has to cover these massive trading and interest losses. For years, politicians happily treated the artificial "profits" of QE as free revenue to fuel state expansion. Now that the cycle has turned, the state is forced to face the harsh reality of its liabilities.
Bottom line: We are now debating which is better between the slow interest bleed of passive QT and the immediate taxpayer hit of active QT -- but this entire dilemma is a trap of the government's own making. If the state didn't rely on reckless borrowing and artificial money-printing to fund a bloated public sector in the first place, we wouldn't be paying the price for it today.
Insight #3
Workers in the most exposed professions are more likely to be older, female, more educated, and higher-paid. We find no systematic increase in unemployment for exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed
Insight #2:
AI is far from reaching its theoretical capability: actual coverage remains a fraction of what's feasible. Occupations with higher observed exposure are projected by the BLS to grow less through 2034.
Insight #1:
We introduce a new measure of AI displacement risk, observed exposure, that combines theoretical LLM capability and real-world usage data, weighting automated (rather than augmentative) and work-related uses more heavily.
📚By Jordan B. Peterson @jordanbpeterson in 12 Rules for Life:
➡️”But if it’s uncertain that our ideals are attainable, why do we bother reaching in the first place? Because if you don’t reach for them, it is certain you will never feel that your life has meaning.” 💡
“A career portfolio is a never-ending source of discovery and fulfillment. It represents your vast and diverse professional journey, including the various twists and turns, whether made by choice or by circumstance.”
-> https://t.co/LQ2lfU0NYD
#career#developement#learning
“The journey is the reward.” - Chinese proverb
Don’t get so caught up in the destination that you forget to enjoy the process.
The process is where you learn, grow & have fun.
The process is where you find meaning and purpose.
Sleduji online sčítání hlasů prezidentských voleb v v ČR a je to napínavé! Rád bych, aby příští prezidentské volby v ČR byly elektronické, aby bylo mnohem snadnější hlasovat i z ciziny. Doufám, že se nám to brzy podaří! #prezidentskevolby2023#volby2023#prezident2023#cz#cze
💡"If you want to be sustainably forever employable for years to come, you've got to be agile and constantly keep your finger on the pulse of what your market wants and then make adjustments accordingly." ~ @jboogie#ContinuousLearning#Improvement#Reinvention#SelfConfidence