Jasmine

into crypto and stocks // sharing my knowledge and opinions on finance

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

@Cointelegraph 16 safeguards on paper. $3.84 billion already moved through one exchange. the number that matters is the second one.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

electrical cost dropping to $47,500 while spot trades above it means miners are still profitable - but the margin is getting thinner every day the price stays suppressed.

if spot price meets the electrical cost floor, the weakest miners start capitulating and selling into the market.

that's historically both the most painful and most reliable bottom signal Bitcoin produces.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

the largest asset manager in the world hiring a Head of Digital Assets after years of publicly dismissing crypto is the institutional adoption signal that doesn't need a press release to be significant.

Vanguard's index fund philosophy applied to tokenized assets is a very different product than anything currently in the market.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Oppenheimer initiated at $190.

Morgan Stanley calling $300.

Goldman says multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.

the analysts who couldn't touch SpaceX for years are now racing to see who can print the highest target.

the IPO didn't just open a stock — it opened a research coverage arms race.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

@DefiWimar "99% of people will miss this" followed by a post explaining it to everyone simultaneously.

the alpha evaporates the moment it's a Twitter thread.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

the ceasefire that was supposed to reopen Hormuz is producing drone strikes on vessels instead.

the $40B annual toll booth Iran was pricing just got a very different kind of enforcement mechanism.

oil above $70 with attacks continuing means the peace deal timeline and the kinetic timeline are still running on completely different tracks.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Polymarket saying 20% chance of $70K Bitcoin in July is actually the more interesting signal than the number itself.

That means the market is pricing an 80% probability Bitcoin stays above $70K through the month. With BTC currently trading well above that level, this isn't a bearish call - it's a floor probability on a level that's already support.

Polymarket prediction markets have been more accurate than most analyst price targets over the past 18 months. Not because they're smarter - because they aggregate real money behind real beliefs.

The number worth watching isn't the 20%. It's what happens to that probability if the FOMC dot plot shifts hawkish this month or the Iran deal falls apart and oil spikes back above $100.

Those two events are the actual variables. The Polymarket number just tells you where consensus sits today.

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 UPDATE: There's only a 20% chance Bitcoin hits $70K in July, per Polymarket.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Anthropic is on track for its first profitable quarter with $10.9B in revenue.

OpenAI burned $38.5B on $13.1B in revenue, paying Microsoft more than it earned in total sales.

Zitron is describing one company and pretending it's the whole industry.

the WeWork comparison lands on OpenAI's unit economics.

it doesn't land on Anthropic's.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Michael Burry shorting Nvidia, AMAT, and SOXX while the median S&P stock grows earnings 25% is the broadening trade and the concentration trade playing out simultaneously.

the dot-com parallel has one key difference - in 2000 the AI revenue wasn't real yet.

this time it is.

but 19.7% concentration with Nvidia beats compressing from 18% to 4% means the market is pricing perfection into a sector that just started showing its first signs of normalization.

Burry was early on the housing short too.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

10 straight days of outflows ended with the largest single-day buy in 59 days.

the institutional floor just showed up at exactly the level the on-chain signals were pointing to.

$221M in one session doesn't reverse the trend - it starts the conversation about whether the trend reversed.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Taiwan just passed the Virtual Asset Service Act. Here's what it actually means - past the headline.

The law requires all crypto service providers to obtain a license from the Financial Supervisory Commission before operating. Cybersecurity standards, client asset segregation, and internal governance are all mandatory.

The part most posts will skip:

Operating without a license carries up to 7 years in prison and fines of $3.14 million. Fraud and market manipulation bring 3-10 years plus fines up to $6.28 million. Taiwan isn't just regulating crypto - they're treating violations like financial crimes.

The stablecoin framework is the most detailed piece - domestic issuance is limited to banks only, tokens must be pegged to fiat, and 1:1 reserves must be segregated from company funds. Foreign stablecoins like USDT and USDC will be treated as regulated commodities and require FSC approval for exchange listings.

Traditional financial institutions will now be allowed to operate crypto services for the first time - meaning existing crypto firms will soon face competition from players with far stronger compliance capabilities.

Companies already registered under AML rules get 12 months to file license applications and 21 months to achieve full compliance.

The global picture: Japan, EU, U.S. and now Taiwan all moving toward compatible frameworks in the same month. The coordination that was theoretical six months ago is becoming real infrastructure.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇹🇼 Taiwan's legislature passes law establishing a regulatory framework for the Bitcoin and crypto industry.

"We're officially entering a new era of digital finance." 🚀

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

@BullTheoryio $170B added in a single session because Zuckerberg gave the capex a revenue model.

the spending was never the problem.

"we're building excess capacity and selling it" is the sentence that turned infinite capex anxiety into a cloud business story.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

@DeItaone BofA's flow data showed historic institutional selling in tech two weeks ago.

now their CEO is dismissing recession fears.

the research desk and the CEO podium are telling different stories and one of them is client-facing.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Deutsche Bank joining Mastercard, Hong Kong's central bank, Japan's three largest banks, and Allfunds in the same tokenization narrative within the same month is no longer a trend.

it's a coordinated industry rebuild happening in public while crypto Twitter watches Bitcoin price.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

South Korea just committed $520 billion to AI chip infrastructure. The crypto mining world should be paying attention.

That capital isn't just building chips for data centers. It's building the manufacturing base that determines GPU supply, HBM memory pricing, and the compute availability that underpins both AI and crypto mining economics.

The connection most crypto accounts are missing:

The RAMageddon trade - DDR5 up 297% since September - gets more complicated if South Korean fab capacity expands faster than expected. More supply eventually means lower memory costs, cheaper mining rigs, cheaper AI inference

Kioxia dropped 8% today on the Nikkei before recovering - that's the market pricing in competitive pressure on existing chip players from a $520B state-backed buildout

Nintendo surging 5.3% in the same session shows the Japanese market isn't just reacting to chip news - it's repricing the entire tech ecosystem around who controls compute

The yen strengthening is the wildcard. A stronger yen makes Japanese chip exports more expensive, which actually protects Korean manufacturers competing for the same contracts.

For crypto specifically: cheaper compute in 2027-2028 as this capacity comes online means mining economics improve and AI inference costs drop. Both are tailwinds for on-chain activity.

The Nikkei recovered. The $520B story is just starting.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

market cap briefly falling below Bitcoin holdings is the stress test Saylor's entire capital structure was built to survive.

the $2B buyback and higher STRC dividend is the response that says "the structure holds."

the Rosen Law investigation is the part that doesn't get fixed with a capital framework announcement.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

4.7% of ETH supply in one treasury while altcoins face the worst selling pressure in 5 years and ETH underperforms BTC by 35% this cycle.

Tom Lee is either the most convicted contrarian in crypto or the most expensive bag holder.

$62,000 requires ETH to do roughly 35x from here.

the Saylor comparison gets harder to make every week the relative performance gap doesn't close.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

lowest weekly close in 21 months with monthly RSI at second lowest ever, 50%+ of holders underwater, and the 200-week MA nearby.

every long-term signal says the same thing the 4-year cycle says.

none of them tell you whether $50K comes before October or whether October comes first.

three months is a long time when leverage keeps rebuilding and getting flushed every week.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

Every time this headline drops, the same misread follows.

BlackRock didn't "sell" $182M in Bitcoin. A large institution redeemed their IBIT shares. BlackRock sold the underlying BTC to return cash to that investor. That's how ETF mechanics work - it's settlement, not a directional bet.

BlackRock has no view on Bitcoin price when this happens. They're a passive custodian executing a redemption. The decision to exit was made by whoever held those IBIT shares - a pension fund, a hedge fund, a family office rotating into something else.

The number that actually tells you something: net weekly flows. One $182M redemption inside a fund with $54B+ in AUM is 0.34% of total assets. Noise.

What would actually be worth watching: if IBIT sees sustained net outflows across multiple consecutive weeks. That's institutional sentiment shifting. One redemption on a risk-off day is portfolio management.

On-chain data shows BTC moving off Coinbase Prime custody - not onto an exchange order book. If BlackRock was actually selling to take a short position, you'd see it hit spot markets. You don't.

Read the mechanics before reading the headline.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BREAKING : 🇺🇸BlackRock ETF sells $182,010,000 in Bitcoin.

[Jasmine @JasmineCryptos]

15 straight months. $209B in net selling. only 36 of 100 in profit.

Bitcoin's monthly RSI hit second lowest ever a few weeks ago and the long-term signals stacked up.

altcoins don't have an equivalent floor.

this is the part of the cycle Bitcoin survives and most alts don't.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🚨ALTCOINS ARE FACING THEIR WORST SELLING PRESSURE IN 5 YEARS

For 15 straight months, altcoins have seen continuous net selling on spot exchanges, hitting a 5-YEAR EXTREME and the worst sell-off ever recorded.

Only 36 of the top 100 altcoins are in profit with over $209 BILLION in net selling and no sign of slowing down.