Jason Almon

@JDunlap1974 Do you have a Job? I guess you sit around and watch playbacks of bull shit press conference briefings. Does this make you feel like you’re some kind of special judge of characterless White House politics? You are such an important person..

193

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

I like the boldness here, and I respect anyone willing to put real numbers behind a call instead of just jotting down BS. The Palantir bull case is real. In my opinion Karp has earned credibility, the company is executing and the acceleration in revenue AIP adoption and margins as well and free cash flow is pretty damn impressive. But I think the 2028 $15 -25 billion adjusted FCF target needs a harder debate. At a 60% to 65% adjusted FCF margin $25B in revenue gets roughly $15B–$16.25B in adjusted FCF…That supports the low end but It don’t really support 20 Bil. To reach $20B Palantir likely needs closer to $31B–$33B in revenue. That is a much bigger mountain. Also, annualizing one monster year or quarter can get dangerous. That is how investors end up wearing a helmet indoors. Growth can stay strong and still slow as the revenue base gets larger. Margins are another question & A 60%–65% adjusted FCF margin would be freaking elite! Maybe they get there, but sustaining that while scaling globally, hiring and supporting complex enterprise & government deployments and fighting competition is damn sure not automatic. But hell yeah , I am bullish on Alex Karp and Palantir But $15B–$20B adjusted FCF by 2028 is not just doable, It is an aggressive and high execution, low-mistake scenario. $15B may be possible, but $20B needs a much tougher interrogation. I like the story. I just won’t let the story do its own accounting and math So I gotta call your bluff a little bit bud, I think you’re underestimating how much revenue Palantir would need. At 60%–65% FCF margins, $25B revenue only gets you about $15B–$16.25B FCF. So if you’re talking $20B, you need to explain where the EXTRA revenue comes from? Maybe you need to get some cheaters when you’re punching on that calculator lol You’re acting like astronomical margins are guaranteed! A 60%–65% free cash flow margin is absurdly strong. Maybe Palantir can do it, but sustaining that while scaling globally is a would be Son of a B! Know what I mean, $10 billion revenue and 60% free cash F margin That means: $10B × 60% = $6B free cash flow I hope you’re correct Thanks for the article man!

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

@JDunlap1974 Bravo! Do you know who is the most uneducated, uninformed, ignorant and hypocritical buffoon on the planet? YOU! DA!

686

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

@Milajoy Mila Joy Have you ever heard of the equinox paradox? In Your case it’s clear. There are More horses Asses than horses!

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

Senator, I am still learning, but I recognize Karbala as a profound reminder of sacrifice, grief, justice, and moral courage. I am truly sorry for the suffering that this history represents, and I deeply respect the enduring lesson of standing for truth even at the highest cost. We need more advocates like you in the United States.

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

I’m with you on John Thune — at some point Republican leadership has to stop acting like controlled opposition and start producing results. But I think the problem is bigger than Thune. Trump has now had Republican control of the House and Senate twice, plus a conservative Supreme Court, and somehow the big scoreboard still looks pretty thin: tax cuts, immigration enforcement, and a whole lot of speeches about the ballroom and the reflective mold pool and his name on everything that has someone else’s name on it . But what they need to do At some point we have to quit blaming only Democrats and ask yes we are still really Republicans! Just yesterday we were about conservative fiscal responsibility! We wanted to balance the freaking budget! We could compromise instead of blame! We were savvy and didn’t have to raise our voice because we could look at anybody in the eyes and no, we were humble the old Republican Party. It was strong as fucking new rope! But now we can’t get a pair of balls on one man up there and we’ve been in charge twice! A second grade PE class could pass bills better than the Republican Party can. Republicans can win power..but can’t even remember that’s when you pass bills! And get shit done! It’s simple because you just have three steps. A third grader could do it backwards. Our elected dumbasses don’t even understand the constitution or how to pass a simple bill, or know how to have integrity. Just a bunch of selfish mo-fos. You know, If you own the truck, the keys, and the road, you don’t get to keep blaming traffic!

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

I agree with you, Sherri, I’m with you on John Thune — at some point Republican leadership has to stop acting like controlled opposition and start producing results. But I think the problem is bigger than Thune. Trump has now had Republican control of the House and Senate twice, plus a conservative Supreme Court, and somehow the big scoreboard still looks pretty thin: tax cuts, immigration enforcement, and a whole lot of speeches about what they’re “about to do.” At some point we have to quit blaming only Democrats and ask why Republicans if they can form a pair between them and have the guts, and can win power but can’t seem to use it. If you own the truck, the keys, and the road, you don’t get to keep blaming traffic. It’s not that difficult. Congress just loves drama and they don’t give a fuck about our country!

4 months ago

4 months ago

4 months ago

A single-index June curse sounds smart until you remember markets are not one organism they’re thousands of damn balance sheets, and so freaking rate sensitivities with liquidity channels, and capital rotations are you wearing the same jersey. That’s diversification 101… plus 10. Brother

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

Respectfully, calling a calendar-cycle drawdown while ignoring liquidity regimes, sector dispersion, earnings breadth, and cross-asset rotation is less macro analysis and more superstition with a Bloomberg terminal. Diversification 101: the market doesn’t need to be ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ — capital just migrates to where the risk-adjusted math survives.”

Jason Almon

@JasonAlmon1

4 months ago

@zeroXhope Hopper, this is exactly the warning most people ignore until it’s already wearing a name tag that says “correction.” The real story isn’t just Korea dropping 10%. It’s concentration risk. When two companies can drag half an index around like a shopping cart with one bad wheel!

4 months ago

almost 5 years ago

@ManituSale @DjokerNole @AustralianOpen Simble??? The meaning is a Girl with mood issues! Does Djokapuss have Cramps along with Covid? Please, at least plug in your tampon, so you don’t bleed on the beautiful Australia Tennis courts!