Javi Palacios

BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL. Aspiring to talk about baseball everyday as a profession! ODU Alum! 🦁

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

More rotation in the hips. Arms are more compact for a smoother follow through. You can see it in his load. He's not lunging out front anymore, staying balanced and loaded on his back leg before firing through. Clearly worked hard to fix! Curious to see down this stretch! #repbx

[Victor @HalToHell]

Here’s a Volpe swing from earlier this year (top) vs. the grand slam he just hit.

My God what an improvement

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Thornton ran into a sizzling Tatis tonight but love the way he battled with more strikeouts than usual as well! He dipped deeper into his arsenal tonight throwing more curves and sweepers which I was curious if he would do as the slider has a hard hit rate this year of 58%. #lgm

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

@KevStar30 Thornton , so far, is so much better with command. I can see Thornton being better than David’s peak

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Tatis … No words.

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

@JeffPassanty Also, I agree he won’t keep up the 2.78 era but I truly believe he can be Quintana-like through his career in the future. Good 3 is my ceiling for him.

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Zac Thornton day! His underlying metrics tell another story, but the surface stats seem good.

xERA says 4.85. His actual ERA says 2.78. Normally I side with the model on a gap like that.

Not this time. Spent the last few days digging into the data and the film. Here’s why.

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

@JeffPassanty Fair point but wasn’t trying to say xERA has shape built into it. More that shape is often what’s driving the quality of contact in the first place. A fastball with elite IVB suppresses barrels, a sinker with depth induces grounders, etc.

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Breakdowns like the one I posted today will keep coming! Love being in the lab 🕺🏻

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

@PSLToFlushing This is huge!

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Profile reminds me of Jose Quintana. Not a strikeout arm, never will be. Modest velocity that plays up through shape and command instead of swing and miss stuff.

Not flashy, but real and sustainable. #lgm

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Bottom line. I think Thornton’s true talent sits between his ERA and his xERA, closer to a low 3s arm than either extreme suggests. Command and deception are real, repeatable command skills.

Floor is a durable back end starter. Ceiling is higher if the slider shape tightens up.

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

Add a 7.3% walk rate, well below league average, and you’ve got a pitcher who isn’t giving away extra outs even on the days the contact quality runs hot.

Batted ball luck can fade. Command won’t!

[Javi Palacios @Javi_Breakdowns]

His most used pitch, the cutter, isn’t a gimmick either. Best hard hit rate in his whole arsenal and a positive run value at +0.3 per 100 pitches.

These two weapons are working together and Zac is doing a great job with mixing the two!