MJ Moreno Crypto

#macro #finance #Community#AI#crypto#RealVisionProCryptoEarlyAdaptor

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

This was an exceptional and inspiring conversation

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@ether_fi In ETHFI please

[ether.fi @ether_fi]

“Fully non-custodial, much lower fees, much higher rewards, and plugged into DeFi. That’s EtherFi.”

Learn more on the latest on EtherFi below

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I don't think anyone realizes the insane demand for block space coming from TradFi... stablecoins TAM is in the many $ trillions and volumes a massive multiple of that.... and that's just the start.

Oh, and that doesn't include the Web3 demand from web2 conversion that will follow over time.

6 to 8 years to $100trn as an asset class for crypto....

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@TorbjrnBullJens 11/10!

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@KASTcard Yield

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

In this week's video Pomp and I cover tariffs, "transitory", panic and most importantly, the importance of humanoids NOW.
Is A Recession Coming Soon?! https://t.co/KPahZSMyHA via @YouTube

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

As ever, a fascinating chat with my friend @jvisserlabs on AI, crypto, and hedge funds' future...

Enjoy!

00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:54 The Big Picture: AI, Crypto, and Macro
00:02:25 Jordie Visser’s Background in Macro and Finance
00:03:30 AI’s Disruptive Impact on the Economy
00:06:32 Rethinking GDP and Productivity
00:08:59 The Future of Labor and Profit Margins
00:10:49 The Rise of the Speculative Economy
00:14:41 Generational Shifts in Investing and Risk-taking
00:16:18 AI and Crypto: A Global Network Effect
00:19:38 Stablecoins and AI-Driven Market Volume Growth
00:24:28 The End of Traditional Hedge Funds?
00:31:16 Deep Research and the Power of AI Analysis
00:35:29 The Acceleration of AI and its Economic Impact
00:41:02 The Growing Crypto Adoption and Its Role in the Future Economy
00:44:22 Shifting from Fear to Optimism in Markets
00:50:27 The Political and Economic Challenges Ahead
00:56:01 Quantum Computing and the Next Leap in AI
01:02:06 Closing Thoughts: Preparing for a Radical Future

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@kaupr_io @TorbjrnBullJens Meget bra👍🏻

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@kaupr_io 👍🏻

[MJ Moreno Crypto @JavierSandnes]

@TorbjrnBullJens @K33HQ Meget bra👍🏻

[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

#Stablecoin ecosystem.

Probably nothing.

[Real Vision @RealVision]

🍌 Ep. 96 - When Shift Happens

@KevinWSHPod x @RaoulGMI

Enjoy 🚀

[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

2024 will be remembered as the year #Bitcoin sovereign adoption started in earnest

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

When our AI overlords take over we will have nothing to amuse ourselves, or to give ourselves a purpose except gambling on cultural communities and memetics...

At first this sounds terrible but it is most likely the birth of an entire new economy.

Right now, Meme madness is building into a re-run of NFT madness from last cycle. Some people made life changing gains, many lost everything.

However, within all the noise, the drama, the fun, the loathing, the profits and the losses, there is signal. The signal is how this technology will be used in the future for the attention economy in a somewhat decentralised on line world with mainly centralised AI as the control system.

In the end, culture, community and the desire to share experiences is a fundamental human trait. This is why sport teams or pop stars mean more to us than many other things. It is a means of relevance, status, acceptance in a 27/7, 365 digital online society. These things ARE our new society. Politics is no different. Religion too. All are also driven by memes.

Yes, this is going to be a wild ride. Please don't get carried away thinking you too can be the next meme trading god on X. You likely won't be and will be left bitter and confused at the end of it all as you endlessly chop your portfolio into the new hot thing, too late and create a massive and complex tax bill for the privilege.

But feel free to experiment but with only a small part of your investments (<10% for me). What is being created here in the madness is actually the future (but it will be in a different format over time).

NFT's aren't dead. The technology is profound. They will be back in a multitude of formats with art being the first true PMF but many more will follow. An OTC derivative or private loan for example are perfect use cases for NFT's, as are tickets, amongst a few examples.

Tokenisation of culture will go through a similar boom bust cycle but the technology is important and the use cases will expand. This is also a re-run of the unchain capital formation craze of ICO's. That will return too but in a different, less wild guise. Was the same with DeFi in 2020 too. That trend too is only going to grow through the various boom bust experimentation cycles with stable coins being the initial PMF.

Think of speculation as the boot strapping, battle-testing, dog-fooding of the tech. It is always the earliest manifestation of a trend. It can also be hugely rewarding but by nature carries the ultimate level of risk.

Also, we all knew that AI and Crypto would meet to create a different world. The first phase of that is now underway in the crypto casino, being battle-tested in a pretty crude, basic format but make no mistake, AI agents will use token incentivisation on each other and humans and agents will use tokens for payments for compute costs + profit.

It is sometimes hard to see where this is all going but step back and observe the deeper significance. I can see that memes, NFT's, ICO's, DeFi etc are all early-stage use cases of a gigantic societal and economy shift. On top of all of this is AI, which is bigger than all of this but is less easy to invest in.

However, the very idea that we can tokenise the Attention Economy is deeply profound but as attention operates on very variable time horizons (from hours to years or even decades) it often require different skills that traditional investing/trading. Maybe the AI will soon be better than use at that too.

The one truth in all of this is that blockchain technology is the key beneficiary and due to the powerful behavioural incentives of tokens, the number will keep going up over time.

Currently we are a $2.5trn economy in Crypto Land and I think it goes to $100trn over the next 10 years. That trend will create the largest, fastest accumulation of new wealth in all human history.

This is THE big Game. You probably only have around 6 years before everything changes.

Don't fuck this Up.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Close, very close.

2/ GMI Total Global Liquidity vs BTC

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

"I stand before you today filled with respect and admiration for what the #Bitcoin Community has achieved. It’s incredible... This is the steel industry of 100 years ago... I think you’re just in your infancy. I can see it happening." - Donald J. Trump

[Real Vision @RealVision]

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[Jamie Coutts CMT @Jamie1Coutts]

#Crypto breadth analysis: Top 200 Equal Weight vs. Mkt cap weight ratio at extreme bearish levels.

Currently, it’s -2.8 StDevs ~ a bearish extreme that only hit on 3 previous occasions.

• 2021: During a bull market that proved to be an excellent re-up for the cycle.
• 2022: prematurely, but close to the cycle lows when the market was 70% down.
• 2023: Near the SEC-catalyzed capitulation lows, Alts decisively broke higher four months later.

Despite a small sample size, this breadth measure hints at upcoming cyclical bottoms and mid-cycle entries. Current data parallels 2021's mid-cycle slump, not 2022/23's end.

While momentum still sucks, the ratio tells us that things are close to washed-out at a time when global liquidity is about to turn higher. The risk/reward setup looks increasingly favourable for high-quality Alts.

Full report at @RealVision

Crypto indices @BitformanceTeam
Charts @Optuma

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Remember the bit about 35% pullbacks being normal… there will be more of these. A bull markets job is to try to throw you off…