Jay

Dedicate yourself

[Locksmiths Picks @_Locksmiths__]

MLB ⚾️ Lock #1 (July 27th)

Tyler Mahle o 4.5 Strikeouts
(-131 DK)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Tyler Mahle gets a surprisingly favorable matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have become much more strikeout-prone over the last few weeks. Seven of the last 10 right-handed starters have cleared their strikeout lines against Milwaukee, including Tomoyuki Sugano (5 Ks), Freddy Peralta (6 Ks), and Eury Pérez (9 Ks).

The projected Brewers lineup is filled with strikeout opportunities. Seven hitters own strikeout rates of 23% or higher against right-handed pitching, giving Mahle plenty of favorable matchups throughout the order.

Another factor working in Mahle's favor is the lack of familiarity. Most of the Brewers' projected hitters have never faced him, giving him an edge the first couple of times through the lineup. Even against Christian Yelich, the one hitter with meaningful history, Mahle has had success, striking him out seven times in 19 career plate appearances.

Mahle's fastball has been his best strikeout weapon this season. It owns a +4 run value along with a 25% strikeout rate and a 23% put-away rate. That matches up well against a Brewers lineup that has struggled against fastballs, with five projected hitters carrying strikeout rates of 21% or higher against the pitch.

With a lineup full of strikeout targets, a pitch mix that matches up well against Milwaukee's weaknesses, and the advantage of unfamiliarity, I like Mahle to clear 4.5 strikeouts.

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[Jay @JayDubb3d]

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