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Jalen Johnson o 9.5 Rebounds ✅

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NBA🏀 Lock #2 (Oct. 21st)

Jalen Johnson o 9.5 Rebounds
(-145 DK)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Johnson averaged 10.8 rebounds in four games against Orlando last season, and he's walking into that same matchup tonight. He's had back-to-back 13-rebound games early last year at Indiana and Cleveland, and he grabbed 14 in just 25 minutes in the preseason finale at Dallas.

The injury report tilts the glass his way on both sides. Orlando is without Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and backup center Izaiyah Nelson, which strips a chunk of their frontcourt depth. Atlanta is down Mouhamed Gueye with a foot fracture and Henri Veesaar for the season with a torn ACL, so there are two fewer Hawks bigs to take rebounds off his plate. Johnson is the one left to clean up behind Okongwu.

Orlando is a 3.5-point favorite with a 235.5 total, so this should stay competitive and keep Johnson out there for his usual minutes. The concern is that he dipped to 8.8 boards over his last 10 games, mostly against a physical Knicks frontline in the playoffs. Orlando without Isaac is a much softer glass than New York, and he already averaged double digits on the boards against them. 10+ rebounds is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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Tyrese Haliburton o 8.5 Assists ✅

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NBA 🏀 Lock #3 (Oct. 21st)

Tyrese Haliburton o 8.5 Assists
(-110 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Haliburton has averaged 10.1 assists in a Pacers uniform, and he put up 9.2 a night in his last full season on his way to All-NBA Third Team. He's been a problem for New Orleans specifically, averaging 8.2 assists across 12 career meetings, including three 13-assist games as a Pacer. The preseason showed the passing is intact too: 15 assists in three games while playing only first halves, capped by 6 dimes in 20 minutes in the finale.

New Orleans is a good place to pick up where he left off. The Pelicans allowed 28.1 assists per game last season (25th) and gave up 120 points a night (24th), and opponents hit 14.2 threes a game against them. That's exactly how Haliburton racks up assists, pushing pace and spraying it out to shooters. The 239.5 total says this one should be played fast, and he has a new pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac, whose screening alongside Haliburton Rick Carlisle has already singled out.

The injury report funnels even more through him. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith are both out, so there's no backup point guard to run bench units and take creation minutes away. Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite, which points to a competitive game where Haliburton plays a full load. The concern is that this is his first real game in over 16 months. But all signs point to him being fully healthy with no major limitations expected, and in a fast game without McConnell, 9+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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T. Haliburton o 8.5 Assists (-110 FD)
J. Johnson o 9.5 Rebounds (-145 DK)
L. Ball o 7.5 Assists (-150 FD)

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NBA 🏀 Lock #3 (Oct. 21st)

Tyrese Haliburton o 8.5 Assists
(-110 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Haliburton has averaged 10.1 assists in a Pacers uniform, and he put up 9.2 a night in his last full season on his way to All-NBA Third Team. He's been a problem for New Orleans specifically, averaging 8.2 assists across 12 career meetings, including three 13-assist games as a Pacer. The preseason showed the passing is intact too: 15 assists in three games while playing only first halves, capped by 6 dimes in 20 minutes in the finale.

New Orleans is a good place to pick up where he left off. The Pelicans allowed 28.1 assists per game last season (25th) and gave up 120 points a night (24th), and opponents hit 14.2 threes a game against them. That's exactly how Haliburton racks up assists, pushing pace and spraying it out to shooters. The 239.5 total says this one should be played fast, and he has a new pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac, whose screening alongside Haliburton Rick Carlisle has already singled out.

The injury report funnels even more through him. T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith are both out, so there's no backup point guard to run bench units and take creation minutes away. Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite, which points to a competitive game where Haliburton plays a full load. The concern is that this is his first real game in over 16 months. But all signs point to him being fully healthy with no major limitations expected, and in a fast game without McConnell, 9+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

📊 @HOFApp

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NBA🏀 Lock #2 (Oct. 21st)

Jalen Johnson o 9.5 Rebounds
(-145 DK)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Johnson averaged 10.8 rebounds in four games against Orlando last season, and he's walking into that same matchup tonight. He's had back-to-back 13-rebound games early last year at Indiana and Cleveland, and he grabbed 14 in just 25 minutes in the preseason finale at Dallas.

The injury report tilts the glass his way on both sides. Orlando is without Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and backup center Izaiyah Nelson, which strips a chunk of their frontcourt depth. Atlanta is down Mouhamed Gueye with a foot fracture and Henri Veesaar for the season with a torn ACL, so there are two fewer Hawks bigs to take rebounds off his plate. Johnson is the one left to clean up behind Okongwu.

Orlando is a 3.5-point favorite with a 235.5 total, so this should stay competitive and keep Johnson out there for his usual minutes. The concern is that he dipped to 8.8 boards over his last 10 games, mostly against a physical Knicks frontline in the playoffs. Orlando without Isaac is a much softer glass than New York, and he already averaged double digits on the boards against them. 10+ rebounds is a number I'm comfortable backing.

📊 @HOFApp

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NBA🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 21st)

Lamelo Ball o 7.5 Assists
(-150 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

LaMelo has averaged 8.5 assists across his career against Miami, and he's been even better lately. In his last four games against the Heat he went for 9, 5, 13 and 10, clearing this number three times. He averaged 7.1 assists last season while playing only 28 minutes a night, and he closed the year at 7.5 per game over his last 10.

Minnesota looks like it wants him as a true point guard. He handed out 23 assists on just 27 shots across four preseason games, averaging 5.8 dimes in under 20 minutes a night, including 7 in 20 minutes at Indiana and 7 in 22 minutes at New York. With Julius Randle and Naz Reid traded and Donte DiVincenzo out with the Achilles, there are fewer other creators to take touches from him. He's also feeding Edwards, Gobert and Kuminga instead of last year's Charlotte roster.

The game script helps too. The total is sitting at 242.5, Miami's plan is to push the pace, and the Heat are only 1.5-point favorites, so there should be plenty of possessions and no blowout. The concern is that sharing the ball with Edwards could cut into his usage. But fewer shots for LaMelo means more passes, and Chris Finch has already said he wants him taking fewer bad shots. 8+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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Jayson Tatum o 5.5 Assists ✅

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NBA🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 20th)

Jayson Tatum o 5.5 Assists
(-140 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Tatum averaged 7.0 assists in the games he played without Jaylen Brown last season, and Brown is now in Philadelphia. He kept that going in the playoffs at 6.8 assists per game, clearing 5.5 in 4 of 6, including 11 in Game 4 at Philly and 9 in Game 2. Over his last 14 games he averaged 7.1 assists.

Boston's offense now runs entirely through him. Without Brown last year his usage jumped to 38.3%, and he has a ton of shooting around him plus two lob-threat centers to run pick-and-roll with. Detroit will throw Ausar Thompson and Cade Cunningham at him, and the extra attention on the ball is what turns his drives into kickouts to Pritchard and White. He already averaged 5 assists in the preseason while playing only 28 minutes a night.

Boston is only a 1.5-point favorite with a 222.5 total, so this should be a tight game with full minutes for Tatum. The concern is that Detroit allowed the fewest assists in the league last season. But that was against offenses that spread creation across several players, and Boston has none left to share it with. Detroit may also not be in midseason form after a messy offseason contract fight with Jalen Duren. With every possession running through him, 6+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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NBA 🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 20th)

Shai Gilgeous Alexander o 6.5 Assists
(+105 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

SGA saw this exact Spurs team seven times in last spring's Western Conference Finals and averaged 8.9 assists, clearing 6.5 in six of those seven games. He dished 12 in Game 1, 12 more in Game 3, and 9 in Game 7. He's over this number in 8 of his last 9 playoff games and 4 of his last 5, and his 6.6 regular-season average already sits above the line.

The matchup explains it. San Antonio has the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Wembanyama, and when the Spurs load up to protect the paint, SGA's drives turn into kickouts and interior feeds. That's exactly what happened in the series. He shot 7-of-23 in Game 1 and 6-of-17 in Game 3 and still racked up 12 assists both nights. When San Antonio wins the shooting battle, he wins the passing one.

OKC also enters fully healthy, with SGA, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all good to go. He put up those numbers while Williams and Ajay Mitchell were sidelined for most of the series, so more finishers means more assists. The concern is Williams taking back some playmaking, but Williams played 37 minutes in Game 1 and SGA still dished 12. With the Spurs only 2.5-point favorites and a tight game expected, 7+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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NBA🏀 Lock #2 (Oct. 20th)

Karl-Anthony Towns o 4.5 Assists
(-125 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

Towns averaged 7.5 assists against this exact Sixers team in last May's second-round sweep, with 6+ in all four games while playing only about 23 minutes a night. He closed that series with 10 assists in 20 minutes, 9 of them before halftime. That was part of a postseason where he dished 94 assists in 20 games (4.7 per game), and he just finished the preseason with 9 assists against Toronto.

This is a role change, not a hot streak. Mike Brown moved the offense through Towns at the elbow during the playoffs, and he's already said that's the plan this year too. Philly is a good team to run it against. The Sixers allowed 27.6 assists per game last season (22nd), and the Knicks repeatedly attacked Embiid's limited mobility in that series. Philly is also thin behind him, with Hukporti, Barlow and Tacko Fall out and Bona questionable.

New York has nobody on the injury report, so all five playoff starters are there to finish his passes. The risk is his 3.0 assists per game last regular season and a quiet Finals against Wembanyama. But the elbow role didn't exist for most of that regular season, and against Philly he cleared this number even in blowouts with limited minutes. 5+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.

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Game Starts Soon 🏃‍���️

@Playbook