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@POTDJay He pitched a lot better in May I think he builds on that momentum

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MLB ⚾️ Lock #1 (June 4th)

Brayan Bello o 3.5 Strikeouts
(-138 DK)

80 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎‼️

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- Brayan Bello gets a favorable opportunity to continue the momentum he built during the month of May. While his season-long numbers do not jump off the page, Bello pitched dramatically better over the last month, posting a 2.67 ERA while averaging 6 innings per outing. His strikeout rate climbed to 18.7% during that stretch, which may not be elite, but it is more than enough to clear a modest line of 3.5 strikeouts.

- The matchup against the Baltimore Orioles is one that offers plenty of strikeout potential. Seven of the nine projected Orioles starters own strikeout rates of 21% or higher against right-handed pitching, giving Bello multiple hitters throughout the lineup that can be exploited if he is locating his pitches effectively.

- Some may look at Bello's previous start against Baltimore and be hesitant, but that outing was a clear outlier. He allowed a season-high 13 hits and 5 home runs, numbers that are wildly inconsistent with the rest of his season. Outside of that game, Bello has done a much better job limiting HRs.

- Another encouraging sign is that the underlying metrics suggest his strikeout rate could improve moving forward. Bello owns a chase rate in the 57th percentile and a whiff rate in the 52nd percentile, both of which are above league average. Pitchers with those underlying numbers typically generate more strikeouts than Bello has so far, suggesting there may be some positive regression on the horizon.

- Returning home should help as well. Bello has pitched significantly better in his home games this season, and with a strikeout-prone Orioles lineup in town, this is a strong spot for him to record at least four punchouts.

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Jalen Brunson o 24.5 Points ✅

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NBA 🏀 Lock #1 (June 3rd)

Jalen Brunson o 24.5 Points
(-130 FD)

❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING

- Jalen Brunson has been outstanding throughout this playoff run, averaging 27 PPG while maintaining strong efficiency despite being the primary focus of opposing defenses. He's shooting 49% from the field and continues to find ways to get to the free throw line, which has always been one of the most reliable parts of his scoring profile.

- This matchup against the San Antonio Spurs sets up well for Brunson's strengths. The Spurs ranked 20th in the league defending pick-and-roll ball handlers, which is where a large portion of Brunson's offense originates. His ability to get defenders on his hip and operate in the midrange makes him one of the toughest covers in the NBA when he gets into those actions.

- A big reason for San Antonio's struggles in that area is their tendency to play a medium drop coverage with Victor Wembanyama. While Wembanyama's length can bother drivers, that coverage often leaves room for pull-up jumpers and three-point opportunities. Brunson is a notoriously streaky shooter from deep, and if he sees a couple early shots fall, he has the potential for a huge scoring performance.

- The presence of Karl-Anthony Towns should also help. His ability to stretch the floor can pull Wembanyama away from the basket and create cleaner driving lanes for Brunson. He cleared this line in two of four regular-season meetings with San Antonio, and in one of the games he missed, he finished with 24 points despite playing only 32 minutes. With playoff minutes likely pushing toward 40 per game, Brunson should have every opportunity to get over this number.

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Marina Mabrey o 16.5 Points ✅

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WNBA🏀 Lock #1 (June 3rd)

Marina Mabrey o 16.5 Points
(-145 Fanatics)

❤️ THIS POST FOR ANOTHER PLAY

- She’s cleared this line in 4 of her last 5 games and 7 of her last 10 overall. Even more impressive, when she plays 25+ minutes, she’s cleared this number in every game this season while averaging 23 points per game on 16 field goal attempts.

- Mabrey is one of Toronto’s primary scorers alongside Brittney Sykes, and the offense relies heavily on her ability to create shots and stretch the floor. With that kind of volume, she doesn’t need elite efficiency to get to 17+ points.

- The matchup is better than it looks. New York has allowed several guards and wings to have big scoring games this season, including Paige Bueckers with 24, Carla Leite with 21, and Bridget Carleton with 26. Mabrey certainly has the volume and scoring ability to do the same.

- As long as she gets her normal minutes, the combination of shot volume, recent form, and offensive responsibility makes this a strong spot for her to clear 16.5 points.

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