NBA π Lock #2 (June 3rd)
De'Aaron Fox o 5.5 Assists
(-140 FD)
β€οΈ IF YOUβRE TAILING
- De'Aaron Fox has quietly been a reliable playmaker throughout the playoffs, averaging 6 assists per game while clearing this line in four of his last six contests. The volume has been there consistently, and he continues to have the ball in his hands enough to create opportunities for teammates.
- The matchup against the New York Knicks is not necessarily one that jumps off the page for point guard assists, but the presence of Victor Wembanyama changes the equation. Wembanyama's ability to draw attention both inside and on the perimeter creates passing lanes that many teams simply do not have to defend against, giving Fox additional opportunities to rack up assists.
- The Knicks have been around league average at defending spot-up scoring situations, which is important because many of Fox's assists come from collapsing the defense and kicking the ball out to shooters. When he gets downhill, he has shown the ability to force rotations and find open teammates on the perimeter.
- Fox has also enjoyed success against New York this season, going over this line in all three meetings while averaging 7 assists on 13 potential assists per game. Even during the playoffs, he's averaging roughly 11 potential assists per game, which is a strong foundation for an assists prop. The conversion rate has not always matched the opportunity, but with this game being at home, the Spurs' role players should be more comfortable and more likely to capitalize on the looks Fox creates. If the opportunities remain consistent, six assists is a very attainable number.
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NBA π Lock #1 (May 19th)
James Harden o 4.5 Rebounds
(+100 MGM)
80 PERCENT HIT RATE πβΌοΈ
β€οΈ IF YOUβRE TAILING
James Harden has quietly been one of the better rebounding guards throughout this playoff run, and getting plus odds on a line he has consistently cleared feels like strong value.
Over his last 10 playoff games, Harden is averaging 6 rebounds per game while also averaging 11 rebound chances during that stretch, showing the opportunity volume has been extremely consistent.
This is not necessarily an easy matchup on paper, but Detroit was not an easy rebounding matchup either and Harden still produced very well on the glass against them.
He also only faced the Knicks once during the regular season as a member of Cleveland, so there is not much sample size to draw from there. In that matchup, Harden spent most of his time guarding either a non shooter or a corner shooter, which is ideal for rebounding because it allows him to sag off defensively and crash the glass on missed shots.
That should continue benefiting him in this series since he likely will not spend much time guarding Jalen Brunson directly.
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NBA π Lock #2 (May 19th)
OG Anunoby o 14.5 Points
(-140 FD)
88 PERCENT HIT RATE πβΌοΈ
β€οΈ IF YOUβRE TAILING
OG Anunoby has been outstanding throughout this playoff run, averaging 21 points per game while consistently giving the Knicks a reliable 2nd scoring option.
Even though he is coming off an injury, the fact that he is listed as probable for Game 1 is encouraging and suggests he should be close to his normal workload and level of play. OG has been especially dangerous from three during the playoffs, shooting an elite 54% from deep on 5 attempts per game.
While he only cleared this line in 1 of 3 regular season games against Cleveland, the process in those matchups was still encouraging. He generated quality looks, particularly from three point range, but many of those shots simply did not fall.
Back at home in a playoff environment where he has historically thrived, there is a strong chance those same looks convert at a higher rate.
The matchup also plays directly into his strengths. Cleveland Cavaliers struggled defending spot up shooters all season, ranking 23rd in the NBA in that area. That is especially important because spot up opportunities account for a large portion of OGβs scoring profile.
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