JayPond

Dad of Daughters. Husband. Entrepreneur. Happy Man.

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@TigerWoods @ROLEX See you on #5

⛳️ 🐅 🏌️

#GenesisInvitational #volunteer #PGATour #SunDayRed #GenesisInvitationalVolunteer

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@OilHeadlineNews @data168 Such manipulation

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@Han_Akamatsu Nice

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@NickDespoo @gurgavin This

[Robert P. Balan @RobertPBalan1]

Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 12, 2025 6:48 PM CEST

NAVIGATING THE TREACHEROUS ROAD TO THE AUG 15 OPTIONS EXPIRY

The Sobering Reality: It's A Rally, But It Is Also A Trap

NET CUSTOMER DELTA (from August 11 to August 15)

MASSIVE put positioning on Aug 15 OpEx (12k+ puts)
Customers are betting AGAINST the rally
The "roadkill" narrative now becomes questionable -- bears are actually loading up

(Source: @OptionsDepth)

NET MARKET MAKERS GAMMA EXPOSURE (from August 11 to August 15)

MMs are SHORT gamma on Aug 11 (-140 exposure)
Becomes MASSIVELY short by Aug 15 (-60 to -20 range)
This is NOT supportive - it's explosive (both ways)

NET MARKET MAKERS GEX BY STRIKES (from August 11 to August 15)

Heavy put concentration at 6300-6370
Very little call activity above 6400
6450 shows resistance (red bars)
The 6400 level is the battleground

HEATMAP OF NET MARKET MAKERS GEX (from August 11 to August 15)

Aug 15 shows MASSIVE negative gamma at 6400 (-778 + 4994 = massive short)
6350 has 3916 positive gamma - the real support
6375-6425 zone is a gamma wasteland

HEATMAP OF CUSTOMERS DEX (from August 11 to August 15)

Customers are SHORT at 6400-6410 (red zones)
Heavy put positioning below 6380
Almost NO call accumulation above 6420

That is why this bullish setup is really what it is -- a "SETUP"

Customers are MASSIVELY short (12k puts vs minimal calls)
MMs are short gamma = instability, not support
No call accumulation above 6400
Put walls at every strike from 6300-6400

The Real Trade "Setup":

Forget "Bears are Roadkill" - This is "Bulls Walking Into a Trap"

The Mechanical Reality:

The charts show:
6400-6420: Strong resistance zone
6350-6380: Likely pin zone for OpEx
Below 6350: Acceleration zone post-OpEx

(Matplotlib; Data Source: @OptionsDepth)

DANGER: Both Customers AND Market Makers are SHORT at 6400!

This is NOT bullish positioning - this is distribution!

Customers are positioned for a DECLINE, not a rally
Market makers are SHORT gamma (dangerous)
The setup screams "trap" not "opportunity"

"The OpEx rally is the trap, the Cliff Dive is the REAL TRADE"

Final Word:

This new set of data completely changes the narrative. The smart money (institutional customers) is already positioned for the downside. The "rally" to OpEx is likely to be squeezy, but also choppy, and ultimately, a bull trap WHEN the real move lower begins.

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@IManghaila @grok what book is this from

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@NUCLRGOLF the water

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@tradertheory @SRxTrades is gucci!

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@TigerWoods @ROLEX See you on #5

⛳️ 🐅 🏌️

#GenesisInvitational #volunteer #PGATour #SunDayRed #GenesisInvitationalVolunteer

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@TradeZella @umarashraf28 Yes. Would love to do it on @TradeZella #promocode

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@united Our flight was cancelled due to crew related issues - how do I file for compensation?

[Sorhan @thegregs]

We're approaching liftoff, Gregs! 🚀

We are excited to have @TomBilyeu join The Gregs community.

Let's give a warm welcome to the ITFK community members! ❤️

#WeAreTheGregs #NFTCommunity #NFTart #NFTs

[Sorhan @thegregs]

#ApeMeetsGreg Contest

Win 3 Cyber Raffle tickets for participating!

Most retweeted post by a verified BAYC/MAYC will receive a The Gregs NFT airdrop!

More details here: https://t.co/dDS7bWFR4Y

[Sorhan @thegregs]

We're all missing something. Maybe that something is Greg. Won't know unless you join the community to see for yourself! 😏
https://t.co/dDS7bWFR4Y

[Sorhan @thegregs]

What's your caffeine of choice? 🧐

[Apes In Space @ApesinSpaceNFT]

APES IN SPACE GIVEAWAY 🚀

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[Morgan @Helloimmorgan]

Tried to mint, gas was 2K to speed up. No thanks

[JayPond @JayMacApple]

@3x3punks @Cashtronaut1 Zombie out @3x3punks @casht

[Trippies @trippies]

Will be announcing reveal date very soon. Public Sale going on at https://t.co/tCL1DwbiAB. Here's a little sneak peak of the Goodies to come

[I Iape® @HAPEsocial]

🎉10 HAPELIST roles up for grabs in our Discord.🎉

To enter:
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and join the server: https://t.co/nIIBqe5Dl7

2. Like, RT and tag your friends

10 winners will be picked in 72 hours.

STAY HAPE

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[Julio Cesar @CesarSolis84]

👀 One day @PrimeApesNFT
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