What do you think happens to Shroom when the mycelium network expands to even more assets, to defragment liquidity across stocks and tokens, and to design custom infrastructure to optimize for market hours?
The job is just beginning. So much more on the way.
The $SHROOM bull thesis thread 🍄
TLDR: Annualized revenue multiple is cheap
$SHROOM is at 1.16x
$PONS (last 7 days) is at 1.65x
$PUMP is at 3.9x
$PONS (last 30 days) is at 4.5x
Continuing with the Robinhood highcap series
A lot of people have asked why I’ve mostly been recapping highcap tokens lately
The reason is simple
After watching quite a few charts recently, I don’t think buying dips on $3–4M or other low single-digit MC tokens on Robinhood is that safe anymore. Once attention leaves, volume and liquidity can disappear very quickly
High caps have at least gone through multiple phases and been validated by the market to some extent. That doesn’t mean they’re safe, but if I want to size bigger, I find the risk easier to evaluate
First one : $SHROOM, currently around $45M MC
1. What is $SHROOM actually betting on?
On the surface, it’s a mushroom meme
But the thesis underneath is much more interesting
SHROOM wants to become a liquidity network for tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain
Liquidity across tokenized stocks is still quite fragmented. Each stock has its own pools, and many markets are still relatively thin
SHROOM is trying to sit in the middle by building multiple pools around $SHROOM. The main pairs highlighted on the site are centered around USDG/PONS plus a basket of mega-cap/semi names such as NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, SPY, TSM... while other pairs like GME, GLD and COIN can also be found on DEXs
The point isn’t that SHROOM already is the liquidity hub for every stock token
It’s that they’re trying to build the infrastructure to move in that direction
The thesis is pretty simple :
more pairs => more volume => more fees => deeper compounded liquidity => more volume
Once liquidity reaches “critical mass,” excess fees can potentially be used to buy back and burn $SHROOM
If this scales, that’s what separates SHROOM from a normal meme × stock token
2. But the narrative is currently moving faster than the fundamentals
The website currently shows roughly :
> 177 pools
> 76 priced pools
> ~$4.04M total SHROOM pool TVL
> 62 protocol-owned LPs
> ~$672K protocol-owned liquidity
The important distinction is that the entire $4.04M TVL is not owned by the protocol
SHROOM itself owns around $672K, while the remaining ~$3.3M comes from external LPs
Organic external liquidity growth is obviously a good thing. But if the thesis is becoming a liquidity layer, POL is still one of the numbers I care about most
At ~$45M MC versus only ~$0.67M in POL, the market is clearly pricing in a lot of future growth
3. 177 pools, but depth is still relatively thin
Liquidity is also quite concentrated.
USDG/SHROOM ~ $211K
PONS/SHROOM ~ $42.5K
Meanwhile, many of the stock pairs shown on the site are only around $15–27K per pool
Nearly 100 pools are still unpriced, and there are also multiple pools for the same assets with different TVLs
So :
177 pools ≠ 177 deep markets
Simply put :
the breadth is there, but the depth isn’t yet
For a liquidity network, depth is ultimately what determines whether the infrastructure is actually useful
4. A 1.27% burn is good, but it’s not an economic engine yet
Around 12.68M SHROOM (~1.27% of supply) has already been burned
That’s a positive, but I wouldn’t call it proof that the flywheel is already running at scale
Fees currently prioritize compounding back into LPs. Buybacks and burns from fees only become a meaningful engine once liquidity reaches “critical mass”
So I view the current 1.27% burn as :
proof of mechanism, not proof of scale
What matters next is :
fees => SHROOM buybacks => actual burns
If that starts growing consistently alongside volume, the thesis becomes much stronger
5. The MU rewards are also interesting
Around 251 MU - tokenized Micron stock has been distributed to holders
The concept is pretty clever :
hold a meme => receive a stock token
If MU continues performing well, the reward itself becomes marketing for SHROOM
But it’s important to note that MU is distributed by Pons and subject to Pons’ requirements. It isn’t automatic yield guaranteed by the SHROOM contract
So I see this as an ecosystem incentive, not protocol revenue
It also shows why SHROOM is currently somewhat of a beta on the Pons + Robinhood ecosystem
6. So why did $SHROOM run so hard?
For me, it was mostly perfect timing
SHROOM launched while :
> Robinhood Chain was heating up
> Pons was attracting volume/attention
> tokenized stocks were becoming a narrative
> MU/NVDA/semi stocks were getting attention
> the market liked the meme × stock meta
Then LBank and MEXC Meme+ listings arrived around the same time, expanding distribution and attention further
More importantly, SHROOM had enough utility for the market to tell a bigger story
It stopped being just :
“a mushroom meme”
And became :
“a potential liquidity layer for tokenized stocks”
At a low market cap, simply changing how the market defines a token can cause a massive repricing
That’s why I’m not too surprised SHROOM reached the $40–50M range
7. But at ~$45M, the game changes
At a few million MC, the market can pay for potential
At ~$45M, I want to see execution
SHROOM has already gone through several of the easier catalysts :
price discovery => narrative discovery => CEX listings
From here, I’m watching exactly 3 things :
> Protocol-owned liquidity
> Stock-pair volume / fees
> Buybacks & burns from fees
If POL moves from ~$672K toward $1M => $2M => $3M, stock pairs generate real volume, and fees start consistently translating into buybacks, the thesis becomes much more validated
On the other hand, if MC remains at $40–50M+ while POL stays around ~$0.7M, pools remain thin and buybacks are still a future promise, then valuation is running ahead of fundamentals
8. What are the next catalysts + near-term risks?
I don’t think the biggest catalyst from here is the dev “dropping a bomb”
It’s the ecosystem itself
If Pons/RH Chain stays hot, more stock pairs are added and the tokenized-stock narrative continues expanding, SHROOM should benefit
Then there’s MU, NVDA and semi/AI stocks. SHROOM needs volatility in the underlying assets for those stock pairs to generate more activity
But the catalyst I care about most is still :
POL ↑ → stock-pair volume ↑ → fees ↑ → buybacks/burns ↑
If that loop starts working, SHROOM goes from a meme with utility to a protocol generating real economic activity
On the other side, there’s one near-term risk I’m watching: LBank/MEXC withdrawals open on September 6
The listings have already happened, so I see withdrawal unlocks as a near-term supply/risk event, not a new bullish catalyst
9. Risk + the levels I’m watching
The biggest risk is still that the market is pricing SHROOM like a liquidity network before the network effect has actually appeared
~$45M MC versus ~$672K POL is still a pretty large gap. Many pools remain thin, the burn engine hasn’t scaled yet, and MU rewards still depend on Pons
That’s why I don’t like chasing around $40–50M
If we get a correction, ~$30M is where I personally start watching and managing size, especially if price falls while POL, volume and fees continue growing
The setup I like is :
Price down => fundamentals up.
If ~$24M is clearly lost, I’d stop trying to buy the dip and reassess the thesis, especially if fundamentals are slowing down too
These aren’t confirmed on-chain support levels or guaranteed bottoms. They’re simply my personal risk-management zones :
> ~$30M = start watching
> Lose ~$24M = reassess
10. Conclusion
I like the idea behind SHROOM
Instead of simply pairing with one stock to ride the narrative, they’re trying to build a liquidity hub around a basket of tokenized stocks
But the market has already paid quite a lot for that story
At ~$45M, potential alone isn’t enough anymore , execution needs to catch up
From here, I’m mainly watching :
POL TVL => stock-pair volume/fees => buybacks & burns
If all three grow while price gives a good dip, the thesis gets stronger
If price keeps rising while those three remain flat, I’ll become more cautious
The narrative has been validated. The attention has been validated. Now $SHROOM’s economic flywheel has to prove itself
0xab093dEF657F15dF31b33922A95e047aDd645B29
if you believe that tokenized equities are this cycle's darling play, $SHROOM is one of the purest ways to be long
concept is shared liquidity layer / interop for all stocks on RH chain via $SHROOM as a common asset, i.e. it monetizes flows which feeds flywheel to grow pools which in turn attract more flows
more volume > more fees > more liquidity > more volume
launched by berachain dev and defi veteran @0xcarnation yesterday and is already up to nearly $7m in 24 hr stock-paired volume across 22 pools with $1m in liquidity (and growing)
Robinhood Projects Watchlist This Week
1. @EARNONHOOD - automated liquidity vaults and Omnipools for making tokenized stocks productive onchain.
2. @DenarMarkets - sdUSD is being built as a yield dollar for Robinhood Chain.
3. @legsdotfun - multi-leg prediction markets coming to Robinhood.
4. @fablesfi - hook-native ve(3,3) exchange for tokenized-stock and RWA markets.
5. @prismassets - RWA marketplace adding tokenized metals, assets, and prompt-based trading.
6. @rallypadfun - launch and trading venue with community chat, fee routing, and programmable rewards.
7. @notawebsite_rh - tokenized websites and rentable ad-slot markets, now moving toward PageMarkets.
8. @stockmonrh - portfolio-backed NFTs where each Stockmon can hold assets and route yield.
9. @QuotientHQ - forecasting agent for prediction markets, perps, and mispriced market signals.
10. @useAgentOS - agent OS adding Robinhood Chain stock-data skills and open inference routing.
What are you watching this week?
$LEGS is now live on Robinhood Chain.
CA: 0x8fcf98e1348d3ddee46cdd15a5c7d9a8d423077d
Build short-term parlays across memecoins and tokenized stocks.
Pick your markets, set the clock, and every leg has to hit before time runs out. All hit, you take the full multiplier. One misses, the ticket is dead.
Full breakdown below.
I’m the real PONDS.
Throw every meme in here.
Frogs. Dogs. Cats. Stonks. Whatever.
The pond accepts all.
wassup my friend @ponsdotfamily we takin over.
0x774f8f44891d6ed3516fe3fa18525c94f8f47b60