Jeff Michaels

Interest Rates Trader, Investor, Parent of seven wonderful children/Math Tutor/Home Chef. My biography order is subject to change based on market conditions.

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@jimiuorio @BpopeTV Banning is not the answer

Just make colleges have skin in the game based on earnings power for any govt backed loans. If they held 25% equity against ability to repay….

All of a sudden, a poetry degree will cost less than an engineering degree

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

Global equities have historically returned a Real yield of about 5.25% for over a century. Today one can get 3.25% from 30Y tips. Assuming you are a US $ domiciled investor…what percentage of your portfolio should lock in that “risk free inflation protected rate”?

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@LukeGromen I can’t believe other countries with trade surpluses would rather invest in no-dividend gold vs coupon earning UST

Of course we are trying to eliminate call trade deficits so they won’t have to make this difficult choice (-:

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@NikkiNic9384 Nailed it. Worst merge ever!!!

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@brandonjcarl @toiletkingcap Of all the bubbles, only makes sense that corn would be the first to pop.

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@brandonjcarl The simple plot is…as long as fiscal policy is going to slam their foot on the gas pedal, monetary need to stomp on the brake. At some point bessent/administration and warsh need to be pulling in same direction. Perhaps after midterms….but I’m not hopeful

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@RaoulGMI If currency debasement doesn’t carry thru to inflation, and you live and plan to live in your own country, why do u need the extra 8%?

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@martin_whetton Well, the Canadian dollar is already named after our tariff policy….Loon(ie)y!

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@INArteCarloDoss We will have to buy more bidets from China

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@AlexNowrasteh @sidprabhu You get what you paid in plus the average 30y bond interest rate during your accumulation years. All fair

doesn’t solve problem that some % of population will still need a safety net after exhausting that “savings”, but at least it is fair to cut off those above a threshold

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@MarcGoldwein @scottlincicome The solution is pretty simple

Once u get back what u put in + the avg 30y bond rate during your contributing years, you are done. You got back what you put in + interest. If you still need a safety net due to income level, u apply to extend benefits.

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@KobeissiLetter Yeah…like long bonds going to 6%

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@EvanRobertsWFAN @KirbyDillon4 Well…as Boomer would point out…state taxes alone would give him about 4 million reasons between this year and next not to accept the trade

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@patrickrooney It’s been sleeping for about 2.5 years around the same price…

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@AahanPrometheus What do I think fair real yields are? If u can get real yields at inflation + 2%? 3%? What is the number…because long end TIPS are certainly guaranteed to outperform inflation by about 2.7%

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@ChrisWillx There is some risky behavior in youth that lowers life expectancy…but if one lives out of their 20s, avg life expectancy is about 4 years higher than that. But still only raises “middle age” to 39-40…although I expect with medical advances today’s 40 yr olds will do better

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@DrNeilStone Could just be that their are still good people in this world (even on X) that love a recovery and redemption story…and he’s pretty self depreciating and funny to boot

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@INArteCarloDoss Finally….someone gets to the heart of the real global issues…

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@dampedspring Bloomberg has a function called BOLT that lets you collapse a cleared swaps package very easily and efficiently with little to no cost (multi dealers will show a price on a package)

[Jeff Michaels @JeffAMichls]

@chrismartenson @DA_Stockman But I thought we were energy independent and exporting our excess ?