Alright, let’s do this twitter thing.
1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world…
Oil markets are increasingly pricing persistent elevated oil prices. How investors are unprepared for this new reality, free on the blog app this week:
https://t.co/mNCQyVcOb2
Horrific inflation data last week and PMI prices this week in line with it getting even worse. Crude 103$ with the full 12 month curve at $100.
Yet FCI has added to inflation impulses for 2 weeks in a row.
Big test for Warsh next week.
Stopped by CNBC Wed morning to talk through the challenges facing the AI trade and how bonds could just be a good buy in this environment.
https://t.co/PxwWyDWnGk
Bonds turning into an equity trade with SPX 2-3% from ATHs is probably the dumbest thing they have done all cycle, and they have had a pretty stupid cycle in general.
Oil rallies are transitory if a short episode. Not when it's 8 months and counting.
Self defeating & dumb.
Live Friday lunch MacroTalk pod back next week! In the meantime, we’d love to get any thoughts on how it can be better from those that have listened to our first couple goes at it so far.
Excited to get back to it!
Macro Talk: Back Next Week (not today)
I know you all miss the banter between myself and Bob. Do not fear!
Both our travel schedules have not been amenable to our usual recording time.
But we’ll be back at it next week. Keep the questions and quips coming!
The FOMC expects inflation to fall with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
However, we this expectation is largely inconsistent with the path of history.
Almost every disinflation has come with employment declines.
The new https://t.co/kabehnG1TX is live.
Explore our upgraded home for independent research, market perspectives, Off-Script episodes, and educational resources.
Take a look around: https://t.co/hJPjp288Yf