The lesson from Lula winning (after Bolsonaro was priced ~82%) is that prediction markets are just a function of polls—which are increasingly unreliable.
There’s no signal from betting odds… just more opportunity to speculate. Expect a lot of “surprises” during midterms.
$GLD I'm a gold bug but even I'll admit that technically speaking kind of not looking that great near term.
Bulls need to hold this blue area box stat!