Scott Reardon

Author of "The Dark Continent" thriller series and "The Death of a 10-Year-Old Boy."

Founder & Portfolio Manager at Dakota Funds.

Not investment advice etc.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@AlexanderKim120 Thinking about doing the same. You’re not buying Brent? I’m worried about some sort of export ban.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

Spring is shit.

It's marketed as a time of renewal. Plants are growing! Animals are being born!

But really there's just a lot of mud on the ground.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@oilgastourist The ARO really is a killer. By my math, at $65 oil, the equity has negative value after subtracting out the net ARO liability.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@DBclouds99 I like oil the best.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@DBclouds99 Not sure. I'm not betting on a higher gold price right now. Gold is so expensive compared to pretty much every other commodity that I'd rather bet on those.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

Love this.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

It's so easy to be wise when it comes to other people's problems and so hard when it comes to your own.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@BillBrewsterTBB @trelforp We need more on this.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

Everyone is well-aware of this risk, but it's persisted for so long that people have become bored of it.

Not sure during any other bubble in history that a civilization has been able to value itself like this.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

@rockcreekfreak Rock Creek, curious how you view a bet on PHX versus a bet on, say, Calfrac or perhaps another fracker with less debt. Curious why you favor the directional drillers as your trough bet.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

Here's how bad the capitulation is out there, even among value investors.

Every time I mention how high the Shiller PE is on Value Investors Club, several members respond with real fury about how valuation is an utterly irrational, outdated metric.

Let that sink in. Even value investors have turned on the thing that makes them what they are. That's how bad it is.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

The market is offering what I think is an incredibly asymmetric bet.

You can get massively long oil+gas—by far, the cheapest assets in the world.

And you can hedge with puts on the most overpriced assets: PARC stocks.

Very very rare for both the underlying bet and its hedge to be cheap.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

The crowd has rapidly moved from shock to hatred.

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

The thing about charlatans is they’re like the devil: they’re ALMOST right.

Everything he says about bitcoin would be true if he was talking about an actual reliable store of value (a good company, for example.)

He’s basically saying, “Take all the old-fashioned virtues and commit armed robbery.”

But life doesn’t work that way.

[Trending Bitcoin @TrendingBitcoin]

SAYLOR ISSUES WARNING TO BITCOIN COMMUNITY:

"IF BITCOIN WENT TO $10 MILLION DOLLARS TOMORROW I WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT HOW YOU'D FEEL."

[Scott Reardon @Scott_Reardon_]

5 months ago, put 3-4% of my fund in far OTM, long-dated Coinbase puts.

They offered one of the best hedges I've come across.

1. Bitcoin is so high beta it could crash even without the broader market crashing. Like right now.

2. $COIN puts were cheap and offered 10-20x payoffs, so a tiny position could hedge an entire portfolio.

3. Puts are a one-way bet. No blow-up risk like with shorting.

Been hedging with puts for several years. Gotten a ton of shit for it, some real fury actually.

Interesting to see the bad thing finally starting to happen.