Jeff Nuche

Industrial CRE & Construction. love the front porch.

[Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio]

It is time to unshackle our ingenuity and build a new Western century.

[NUCLR GOLF @NUCLRGOLF]

🐅🏌🏾“When I’m flushing it I don’t take divots… it just is what it is.” ~ Tiger Woods

[Jeffrey A Tucker @jeffreytucker]

I'm concerned that many people do not understand the historical and institutional context in which the DOGE labor reforms are unfolding. They look at this as if these are some random, chaotic, arbitrary, strange, and even cruel measures to impose on a devoted civil service.

The reality is very different, and I'm not even sure that Elon entirely understands this. For more than a century, even dating back to 1883, the civil service has grown and grown without check from the elected branch, either the presidency or the legislature . The bureaucracies have ballooned from a few to 450 or so. The bloat and absurdities have grown too.

Get this: no one has ever known what to do about it. Not Coolidge, not Hoover, not Nixon, not Reagan, not Clinton, no one. No president has been able to crack this nut. The only reforms ever to have made it through are those that make the administrative state bigger, never smaller.

Countless cabinet secretaries have come and gone, always with the intention of making a change but leaving saddened, demoralized, outwitted, outgunned, and ultimately devoured.

No president has seriously taken on this problem because they simply did not know how. The unions are powerful, the intimidation from the deep institutional knowledge is overwhelming, the fear of the media as been powerful, and every single president comes to power vaguely feeling threatened by the intelligence agencies. The industries that have captured every single agency were also far too powerful to unseat or control.

This combination of institutional inertia has blocked serious reform for a full century. No one has dared. No one has even had a theory or strategy about what to do about this problem. It had become so terrible that most people in politics have simply surrendered, like homeowners who know there are rats in the basement and bats in the attic but long ago gave up trying to fix the issue.

All this time, the American people have felt themselves ever more oppressed, weighed upon, taxed and regulated, spied upon, brow beaten, and otherwise overwhelmed. Voting never made any difference because the politicians no longer controlled the system. The bureaucracies ruled all.

The Biden years underscored the point. We didn't even need a conscious and present executive. We only needed a figurehead to pretend to be president, just like the Soviet premiers in the old days. The institutions ran everything and the people controlled nothing.

How to deal with this? Trump alone figured it out in his last term: he simply took charge of the agencies in a limited way. There were screams of horror and plots galore. They performed a long stream of clever schemes to destroy him and show him who is boss, which is not the democratically elected president but the forces behind the scenes.

The job of the president, goes the message from all the insiders, is to PRETEND to be in charge but not actually do anything meaningful. Shut up, mug up, obey, and disturb nothing, let the administrative state do its thing without oversight or disruption, and then you will get your honorary library and bestselling autobiography and go down in history as great.

Trump refused the deal and look what happened.

Four years have gone by and Trump is back again, this time with a determination to slay this beast, one that he knows all-to-well. The efforts of DOGE and MAHA and MAGA are epic in scope, breaking a century of pathetic acquiescence toward the deep, middle, and shallow states, at last using moral courage to confront the problem head on, come what may.

They are profoundly aware that they MUST act fast and with some degree of ferocity, even recklessness, else we will default back to the status quo of leaders who pretend to be in charge while the embedded system runs things behind the scenes.

It has been this way for TOO LONG. The voters this time have demanded change, and mustered the faith to believe that change is possible. This is precisely what DOGE is attempting, to make good on a promise, a promise that for once the voters actually believed was credible.

They simply must succeed. There might never be another chance. The way of failure is the path everyone knows the US was on, toward economic stagnation, political scolerosis, and eventual irrelevance in the unfolding of the next stage of social evolution.

[NUCLR GOLF @NUCLRGOLF]

Nelly Korda cannonball 🏊‍♀️🤿 @NellyLegion

[Patrick McDonald @pmcdonaldCBS]

10/10 reaction.

The big exhale, Hadwin clapping in the background, the grown men in orange. The game of golf is better when Rickie Fowler is winning.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@CaseyMericle @BuysideCRE Where? Houston - $51 budget.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@Levijameshere There are rumors of 4 handles in the Houston market. Waiting for it to close.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@CREVadd @MarcSGilbert @ZeroBasis Agreed. Seemed to me like Marc was positioning the comment to me a distribution of cash when it’s not.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@MarcSGilbert @ZeroBasis You said cash, but maybe you meant loan. Yes, more cash in hand but now your paying interest on that cash.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@MarcSGilbert @ZeroBasis Teach me something here. How is a re-fi not exposed to cap gains?

[Will Maddux @MLBMetrics]

Most postseason wins since...

2010: Astros
2011: Astros
2012: Astros
2013: Astros
2014: Astros
2015: Astros
2016: Astros
2017: Astros
2018: Astros
2019: Astros
2020: Astros
2021: Astros
2022: Astros

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@antonia_mdprjct @Michael_L_Lamon @fortworthchris Completely agree. Relative to industrial which is the asset class I develop and build - I think we will normalize late 2024 with a 15% - 20% total price increase relative to 2019 prices. Then again, I could be completely wrong. Who knows.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@antonia_mdprjct @Michael_L_Lamon @fortworthchris The 1st price increases - steel, PVC, roofing, lumber, metal stud. The more complex manuf’d products were slow in their increases. You’ll see the same slow retreat in those products. look at the Q10’s of public co producers and you can see how far we might come down in price.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@antonia_mdprjct @Michael_L_Lamon @fortworthchris I own a GC company in Texas. Pricing is already retreating. Late Q1 and Q2 construction co’s will be fighting for business. Joist & deck suppliers are already dropping prices 20% from highs. Some labor costs will be sticky though. Cement is an exception in Texas.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@EllliotttB It’s in chapter 38 of the PE text book that in times of distress, you can sound smart by saying we are holding some dry powder for “distressed deals”. And by “distressed” they mean the perfect Class A deal in a tier 1 market.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@3YearLetterman The stamina to reply to this many responses can only be built by being the greatest coach ever.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@TravisSlipF18 @JdubMankin @SlangsOnSports @Buster_ESPN This was because he had no bats. Still only allowed 2-3 runs per game max.

[Jeff Nuche @JeffNuche]

@JdubMankin @SlangsOnSports @Buster_ESPN Came here to say this. Travesty of sports history.

[Houston Astros @astros]

Mission complete: We’re World Series Champs! 🤘