◄U Got It Bad► ✌🇫🇷

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

#ECB’s Lagarde signals June rate cut w/2% #inflation in sight. Markets agree and price in 97bps cut for 2024.

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇪🇺 #ECB Has to Work Out If Inflation Monster Is Taking Its Last Gasp - Bloomberg
https://t.co/wcqG4EkUYz

[Raphael Leblond @RaphiLeblond]

Les ateliers du trading #5 avec @TraderChange https://t.co/3fot0zPWzn

[IDIOTS DU VILLAGE @_IDVL]

Qui a fait ce montage de fou ptdrrr

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Yes, I am biased (to the bullish side) for the #USD.

Because that's what I see when I look across the FX majors. As always I could be wrong, but I prefer not to fade myself on this one.

- #EURUSD has posted a very friendly 3-day pullback against a not-so nice prior selloff.
- #DXY hasn't even pulled back to the 200-day EMA, and is trying to hold above 104.
- #AUDUSD looks ready to roll [over]. Again.
- As does #NZDUSD
- #USDJPY looks set to at least test 150
- #USDCAD posted an inverted hammer (potentially bullish). If it rallies form here, I see a (slightly hunched) inverted head and shoulders pattern - which is a bullish continuation pattern during an uptrend
- #GBPUSD looks less compelling between the 50 and 200-day EMAs, but its rebound from the 200-day EMA has at least run out of steam
- #USDCHF has closed above the Jan high, and willing to look past the small 'shooting star' candle as the last one on Tuesday was annihilated (oh.. and SNB don't seem to want an expensive currency anymore).

[Alexandre Baradez @ABaradez]

Pour ceux qui s’intéressent à la saisonnalité, voici celle du SP500 en février 👇

[Maryline Maubois @MaryMbois]

Le saviez-vous ?…

[Alexandre Baradez @ABaradez]

🇺🇸Un rapport sur l’emploi détonant, Powell attendu dimanche, quelques commentaires :) 👇

https://t.co/4WwHaUxmEh

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Dollar gains and US yields jumped on huge US jobs data beat. US NFP at 353k way above the estimated 185k, Wages came in hotter than expected +4.5% YoY vs +4.1% expected. Unemployment rate held flat MoM at 3.7% (the Street was anticipating 3.8%). According to the Household survey, the number of employed people dipped by 31k MoM, so US NFP report not as hot as at 1st sight.

[Xavier Niel @Xavier75]

C’est quoi ce poulet

[Alexandre Baradez @ABaradez]

Le graph suivant est intéressant

Tout d'abord il montre que l'inflation liée à l'offre (supply) a certes été exacerbée par le Covid...mais qu'elle existait quand même avant et n'était pas négligeable par rapport à l'inflation liée à la demande.

Ensuite que l'inflation qui arrive par la demande n'est pas retombée à ses niveaux pré-Covid (et donc que les salaires jouent un rôle)

Pour les banques centrales, ce n'est donc pas qu'un problème d'offre...mais aussi de demande

[Alexandre Baradez @ABaradez]

Les mesures 3 mois et 6 mois annualisées de l’inflation PCE sont en-dessous de 2% ce qui alimente l’idée que le combat de la Fed est plié et qu’il faut baisser les taux rapidement

Ce que montre ce graphique, malgré un historique limité, c’est que les mesures 3 et 6 mois atteignent des niveaux qui ne sont, à plusieurs reprises, jamais atteints par le chiffre y/y lui-même. Je ne dis pas qu’on ira pas à 2%, mais que c’est cette inertie qui justifie aussi que la Fed attendra, selon moi, le T2 pour baisser les taux 👇

[Eric Larchevêque @EricLarch]

🤯 Comment Benedicte, sans aucun diplôme d’ingénieur en poche, et armée de sa seule détermination, a-t-elle réussi à concevoir, prototyper, breveter, industrialiser, sourcer, marketer et vendre sa poussette révolutionnaire Limo ?

C’est la question que je me suis posée en la voyant pitcher son entreprise avec énormément d’assurance et de maîtrise lors du 2e épisode de #qvema hier soir.

Je sais à quel point il est difficile et complexe d’industrialiser un produit. Mais alors le faire pour une poussette composée de nombreuses pièces, avec de véritables défis techniques et des normes draconiennes, relève du véritable exploit quand on est juste une personne.

Bénédicte a su s’entourer, apprendre, convaincre et surtout ne jamais rien lâcher car les revers ont été nombreux sur la route, jusqu’à même se retrouver en procédure de sauvegarde lors de son passage devant nous.

Un produit qui plaît, dont les vidéos virales font des millions de vues sur les réseaux sociaux, générant de nombreuses demandes, mais sans stock en face pour vendre ou livrer… La trésorerie s’est asséchée, la prévente ne fonctionne pas sur un produit où on le veut immédiatement (et pas dans 3 mois) et la situation de l’entreprise péréclite.

Ne pouvant faire face aux dettes, Bénédicte met Vidiamo en procédure de sauvegarde. Un très bon réflexe, qui permet de bénéficier d’une pause de quelques mois pour négocier avec les divers interlocuteurs et trouver des solutions.

Convaincu par le potentiel de la Limo et bluffé par la capacité entrepreneuriale de Bénédicte, je décide de la suivre dans cette aventure et investis 150 000 euros contre 25% du capital. Nous commençons immédiatement à travailler après le tournage et proposons au Tribunal un plan de financement nous permettant de sortir de la procédure de sauvegarde et de passer en redressement judiciaire (ce qui malgré le terme est positif car les dettes sont gelées et les fonds injectés peuvent ainsi être consacrés au développement du business).

💰 Maintenant, c’est le “money time” : il faut vendre des poussettes Limo !

👨‍👩‍👦‍👦 Alors si vous avez deux enfants en âge rapproché, ou si vous connaissez quelqu’un qui pourrait être intéressé, c’est par ici https://t.co/zltJmwmPP4

PS : je serai en live sur IG (elarch) avec Bénédicte demain vendredi à 18h pour revenir sur son aventure, son ressenti lors du tournage et faire le point sur l’impact de la diffusion !

[MC 🌹 @MaikaCrr]

ON PEUT PLUS OUVRIR X EN PUBLIC, DU SEXE À TOUTE HEURE, vous faites chier !

[#1 𝕏 Media Plug 😈 ✪ @NoPlugMedia]

man caught donkeyfckin a woman on the other side of a very clear window 🍑😂🤦‍♂️… Thoughts?💭

[IDIOTS DU VILLAGE @_IDVL]

Je pleure de rire il s'est foiré totalement la

[Rusk0f @rusk0f]

L'airdrop de $JUP fin Janvier va rester dans les annales et t'as capté que je parle pas de porno

(quoi que... 😏)

[meow @weremeow]

Jupuary Kickoff: Let's launch JUP together!

Long essay ahead, no TLDR. If you can trade you can read*

The month of Jupuary will be a month of learning. We will learn how to launch JUP together as a community, learn how to improve the infra for high stress events, and be a great defi education opportunity for everyone.

With some luck, we might be able to repeat this process for any team that wants to launch their token too.

This essay will outline the various areas of preparation we are taking, how you can be involved in every step of the way, and when the approximate launch date will be.

Before we start, one should note that we are not optimising for hype or price or perfect price discovery, so please save your eyes if you expect any of the above. We will not focus on these short sighted optimisations. This opinion, while unpopular with many in community and CT, is an hill I will die on [1].

Instead we will focus JUPUARY for learning with everyone openly on how to launch a token on chain that aligns the needs of airdrop recipients, buyers, traders, team funding needs, bots and the rest of ecosystem. We will have launch test parties, do lots of explainers, share scaling plans openly, host a lot of discussions in the next 3 weeks and do a post mortem.

https://t.co/9Btr5hppER

But why do that?

Why not just hype and cex, farmers be dumping, pumpers be happy, cats be chilling?

Simple [2] - doing this or repeating the usual ido game is easy but does not move the meta forward, does not make the team more capable, and does not help the ecosystem learn how to move the crucial initial process onchain.

If we start off this new phase not trying things out based on what we think would be a good step in the right direction, I don’t think we deserve to be mentioned in DeFi 2.0, regardless what the price is.

The price can go up or down, the ethos must remain.

So experiment we shall. And if we fuck up, we shall own up and we will get better. That’s how we got here in the first place, I am determined to enter this new phase the same way. Show up, pay the price, learn the hard way if needed.

And with that ethos, we will win later.

What's Happening In Jupuary

In Jupuary, we will have the following key areas of work leading up to the claim and launch.

1. Overcommunicating Jupiter
2. Preparing infra, pools, site, minting, venues
3. Ensuring no cats left behind

Given the extensive amount of work, we expect launch day to be in the 4th week of Jupuary. Let's work on it together.

Before the launch, you can help by discussing plans together, participate in test launch parties, learning and sharing w friends about the 3 moons of Jupiter, and getting familiar with all the tools available.

1. Over-communicate Jupiter

Being poly/open teaches you many things, one of whom is that if you overcommunicate, the worst thing that can happen is that people find you annoying. But if you undercommunicate (esp before things start) you are gonna be in for some serious shit later on.

Since we like our cats clean, overcommunicate we shall, especially pre launch. Over the course of Jupuary, we will share a lot about the 3 moons of Jupiter:

1. https://t.co/cI8DhJekj0 - Full stack ecosystem play
2. JUP - Symbol for defi 2.0
3. J.U.P. - Community driving the meta

At Jupiter, we love love love meme coins, and I want to meme the shit out of everything, but we want to also be as detailed as possible about our product roadmap, ethos, and community goals, so that anyone choosing to get involved does so with full knowledge. Both are important.

I will aim to compile all these into the Jupiter White Paper, which will drop at least a week before actual token launch to give those who are interested enough time to review it.

In the meantime, the super long reddit AMA and discord thread remains the best places for both seeing what the everyone says about us, as well as for understanding key parts of our strategy.

I strongly encourage everyone to take a read on these if you have not yet.


Reddit AMA: https://t.co/xzCsVfg9Cw

Jupiter Strategy w Discord Screenshots: https://t.co/cFkwSMsTL8

2. Prep For JUP Launch

There are 5 key areas of work for the launch - infra prep, dlmm launch pool, launch site, JUP accountability, partner platforms.

For each of these, we will release in even more detail incrementally over the next 3 weeks to get as much feedback as possible - but here's an overview.

a. Infra Prep
First off, we are working very closely with 2 of the very best infra partners @triton_one and @heliuslabs to scale up our RPCs on both frontend and backend ahead of time. They will also help to run parallel keeper infrastructure to assist in more redundancy ahead of time.

The other thing we are monitoring along with Solana labs is the rollout of 1.17, which is expected to solve a number of issues as well as improve performance. We hope for 1.17 to be fully rolled out and stable before proceeding with the launch.

As many have noted, these kind of events are major test not just for Jupiter, Solana but also for the industry. So it is crucial that we all learn together. SOL haters waiting to laugh at the sideline in case of any issues are not serious, should be ignored in perpetuity.

https://t.co/8BhxocBpIO

To maximize collective learning, we will as usual be sharing all the main things we will be doing as preparation, live updates from us and partners as well as through post moterms as well.

b. DLMM Launch Pool
Secondly, there will be a single sided @MeteoraAG DLMM pool [3] customised for the launch use case.

As previously noted, there is no more token sale, the original 20% allocated for the token sale is now split into liquidity provision and the community contributors and grants.

5% of JUP will be in this single sided launch liquidity pool. This pool has key features for launch requirements, with a switch allowing it to be enabled at the exact same time as the airdrop claim, LP lock for predetermined amount of time and max tokens that can be swapped in a single transaction.

The price will start low to assist in initial rapid price discovery, as well as provide immediate USDC liquidity to people who want to dump their airdrop immediately. Bots will likely hit it hard at launch, while users who want to try to grab some early on can set a high priority fee to swap, or set up limit orders and DCA ahead of time, or place orders in other onchain markets, which jupiter will index ahead of time (arb bots might hit it).

The configuration for this pool will be important, including the initial price, max price, curve, swap fee and dynamic fees. Since this is meant to be a launch and backstop pool, fees will be very high to prevent immediate dumping as well as not to compete with other onchain pools.

We will have a fun site next week for everyone to try out the modeling, done by intern #2.


We aim for the following objectives:
1. All on-chain participants and price action start at the same time
2. Immediate liquidity for paper paws to dump, while there will be sufficient buy liquidity, preventing very erratic price swings.
3. Single LFG price discovery for everyone, avoids nasty multi round discovery problems with IDOs or complex mechanisms
4. Sufficient backstop buyer-regret liquidity for price to stabilise before liquidity can be withdrawn by team. This prevents a situation where the price dumps shortly but the team has all the stable liquidity.
5. Fully transparent on-chain market making, completely zero shennigans.

The downsides are obvious - bots are likely to have a field day at the very start (I personally don’t think this is a downside), and the network is likely to be extremely congested at the start, with both claiming and bots hitting the pools early on. In addition, there is very little certainty in how much funds we will have at the end of the stablizilation period.

But we believe this is probably the simplest, fair, most defi way of proceeding. Anything else (like scheduling drops) will relieve network stress but vastly complicates the ethos of this, which end of the day is key to us.

In addition, there are likely things that users can do like set very high priority fees (with risks of course), place limit order / DCA orders for keepers to execute or place orders with other onchain platforms.

These are all part of the education that needs to happen. Bots are a crucial and important part of the infra, we need to Empower and Equalize and Educate users, not demonize.

c. Launch Site
Thirdly, we want a launch site that allows users to be as ready as possible, learn as much as possible, and have visibility into all the key concepts like network congestion, fees needed to land transactions, movement of the DLMM pool.

In this site, users will be able to:
- learn all about Jupiter & the 3 moons
- set limit orders and dca ahead of time to try to secure available liquidity at a price they want
- claim the airdrop tokens and sell them directly
- see network status, get guidance on priority fees needed to land txns
- see the launch pool being visualised and the current onchain price
- link to various venues if they want to market make their JUP

We want this site to be useful way ahead of time AND later for experts, new users, and n00bs alike. As such, we will be sharing this page a couple of weeks ahead of time, organising several launch parties to test it together, and I will do a youtube live thing as well.

This can be a really good defi education event for so many users, and we want to make that happen. We gonna stop pretending that onchain is the same as off chain. It’s vastly more complex on one hand, and vastly more interesting on the other hand.

And I do think that abstracting away all that is not gonna work - block space, below market assets are all scarce resources that has to be distributed in some way. Better for everyone to learn what these are first, then we make it more fair as we go along.

What better chance to educate than now?

d. JUP Minting

JUP is an incredibly valuable resource, so everyone should know how it is being managed and track it properly from genesis.

Importantly, the various allocations should be in clearly marked out wallets and clearly announced and watched like hawks by every single bot in the business so there is no confusing business going around.

To make it even easier for community to track all these, we will look into getting .SOL names for all these wallets.

The tentative plan is this:
1. 10B JUP will be minted
2. This will be equally split up into 2 cold wallets (50/50).
3. From the team wallet, 10% will be withdrawn for liquidity provision.
4. From the community wallet, 15% will be withdrawn for the first airdrop and near term community needs.

The team LP account will then use 5% for the initial token launch pool. The rest is yet to be decided, but it is possible 1-2% more will be liquid in the first day.

All in all, we are looking at 15% - 17.5% of the tokens to be liquid from day one, 10% - 7.5% in warm wallets, and 75% to be in cold storage.

We are interested in chatting to professional custody providers to be shared signers for all the cold wallets. When the DAO is mature, part of the JUP will be managed by them as well.

On a side note, how the community allocation will be used and stored is going to be a massive area of focus for us to get right. I will be very pragmatic here while also trying to push the bar forward. Will share notes on this very soon.

e. Onchain Market Making Venues

The launch pool is ideal for the initial push and as backstop liquidity, but the high fees and lack of active market making makes it unsuitable for constant market making by users.

We will collaborate with other awesome defi players in the space to set up markets ahead of time, so that when people get their JUP, they have the option to market make there. We will link to all these places in the launch site so everyone can get familiar with them ahead of time.

3. No Cats Left Behind

This is something that we care about a lot, and have been dedicating enormous amounts of resources into resolving. @9yointern as usual leading the charge on this front. Best intern possible, every defi team needs to take invite her to give talks and then record every word, inscribe into the protocol genesis nft.

There are 3 areas of work here:

A. Completing the good cats submissions. We are reviewing every submission one by one. Accepted good cats wil get additional JUP airdrops based on the level of contribution. It has extremely time consuming to go through each of them, so give us some time!

B. Compromised cats. Turns out that there are many, many cats who have their wallets compromised. We will set up a site allowing them to delay their claims. We have however heard of some EXTREMELY BAD cats who have sold their wallets on OTC and then planning to use this form to prevent the buyer from claiming. We will try to figure this out as well.

C. New cats. There are no plans right now, so cannot talk much about this right now, but we love everyone very much, old and new cats alike. TIme is very tight for Jupuary tho, so it's still in the air what we can do here.

These has been an extremely tiring journey, but we are hopeful that this processes will be helpful not just for this phase, but for future phases as well.

JUPUARY is Month of Learning

New token launches, transparent liquidity for team, large scale concentrated events with large amounts of capital at stake are crucial testing grounds of the industry.

There is so much to learn here:
1. JUP team and community to learn how to launch a token together
2. Ecosystem to learn how to create a win-win situation for everyone involved in this process
2. Users to learn more about dexes and onchain operations
3. Traders to learn more about Jupiter before getting involved
4. Infra teams to learn how to get the entire infra stack ready.
5. Industry to take notes and improve in their own chain or project

If we are lucky enough to do this collaboratively more than 5-6 times w different projects over the year, improve every time, I promise you that we as an community and ecosystem will be super fine-tuned by the end of the year - and give the masses a very powerful reason to enter the meta.

Last but not least, I would also like to change the attitude around failing in crypto. We are under such intense pressure to win all the time and become so afraid of failing that that most of the time, we just follow the status quo, and worst yet build up massive walls of delusion (sbf, do kwon, suzhu) that end up crumbling down and crushing everyone in the vicinity.

So I got no idea how JUPUARY is going to end up, but fuck it, let’s learn together, fail together if needed and at the end of the day, fucking win together.

50/50
Meow

Footnotes:
[1] but I got five lives, so jokes on you haters
[2] no lack of people saying we are overdoing and hence going to zero. they could very well be right, so be involved at your own peril
[3] you can read out the latest about Meteora and DLMM here in this tweetstorm/blog post.
https://t.co/367aShJrlB

Postscripts:
* A few easter eggs in this essay, whoever spots it gets first dibs to $MEOW whenever i launch it
* Let's make crypto read again. We are too addicted to simple awesome amazing catchy memes like “JUP: DEFI 2.0” or “50/50” or “Grow The Pie” or "Good cats only" or "Full stack ecosystem play" 🤯🤯🤯

[John Plassard @JohnPlassard]

Selon Goldman Sachs, les modèles CTA (qui travaillent sur le momentum des marchés) vont être (très) fortement vendeurs du marché américain la semaine prochaine ...