Jeremy

A crypto beginner thriving to retire by the age of 40

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 已挂单 💪🏻

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 除了 BTC 还建议买什么吗

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 要不要抄底

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK @Murphychen888 求指教

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

不要企图抓住行情最后的1/8或最初的1/8；
这两个1/8点位，是世上代价最高的1/8！
——杰西·利弗莫尔

想要卖在最高点，买在最低点，是非常危险的心态；

@Murphychen888 分析挺好的，他���两天的推文可以理解为有回调需求，而不是大顶到了；粉丝们的评论 @tj_research Talk君都看不下去。

猜顶绝非易事，
连CZ @cz_binance 和 $BTC 大鲸鱼都说不清顶在哪；

我经历三轮币圈大周期，总结下来，逃顶需要评估的指标有近40个（如下图参考），有一些我一年前分享过；

老福, @FLS_OTC 确定相对顶部，根据逃顶指标左侧止盈部分，右侧破位再止盈剩下的，分批止盈是上策；

Don’t try to catch the final 1/8 or the initial 1/8 of the market movement;
these two 1/8 segments are the most expensive in the world!
— Jesse Livermore

Trying to sell at the very top or buy at the very bottom is an extremely dangerous mindset.

@Murphychen888's tweets received criticism. His tweets from a couple of days ago can be interpreted as suggesting a need for a correction, rather than the arrival of a major peak.

Guessing the top is no easy task.
Even CZ (@cz_binance) and #BTC whales cannot precisely determine where the top lies.

Having experienced three major crypto market cycles, I’ve concluded that identifying a peak requires evaluating nearly 40 indicators (see the chart below).

To determine a relative top, the best strategy is to partially take profit on the left side using peak indicators and gradually take profit on the remaining portion when key levels break on the right side.
Staggered profit-taking is the most prudent approach.

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 求日更

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

粉丝看了一些KOL的观点很焦虑，问我BTC接下来怎么走？

狂人是老KOL了，他的观点总结：1、盘整2-3个月；2、顶部回调30-40%；3、抄底区间他设定在7-8万；

这三点，我都不认可；

1、昨天 $BTC 插针， $ETH 带动山寨大暴跌，符合我置顶帖子中12月初BTC突破10万，12月上旬开始回调的走势预判（附上了11月底的老预测图）

2、BTC回调的深度？
很多事件和宏观数据影响回调的具体目标点位，
(1) 若明天美国11月的CPI符合预期或好于预期（概率70%），则BTC的二浪回调，通过在90K-100K之间的震荡就完成了；
(2) 若CPI爆雷，核心CPI到了0.4%（概率30%），则会让美联储12月不降息概率大增；BTC预期跟随美股回调到87K左右；
狂人的30-40%回调危言耸听了；

3、BTC要调整多久？
12月22日前，大概率结束二���回调，开启三浪上涨；
(1)美股的情绪和广度已在低位，12月下旬美股也回调的差不多了；
(2)牛市中，#BTC 的回调时间一般1-2周；
Santa Rally将带动美股和比特币上涨，比特币三浪目标价12万；
狂人推断的2-3个月的盘整在年底发生的概率很低，到了2025年Q2才有可能；

4、抄底区间；
若明天CPI利好，则95K-91K，可分批挂单抄底BTC；
若CPI爆雷，则91K-87K，可分批挂单抄底BTC；
买到就是赚到；
狂人说的价格，估计要等半年。

5、更大的回调在何时？
预计在1月20日，Trump就任总统，市场Sell the news；

大家一起来见证，谁的预测是对的，哈哈
@phyrexni 老倪，你说呢？

Some followers are feeling anxious after reading opinions from various KOLs and have asked me about BTC's outlook.

Here’s a summary of a KOL's views as quoted:
BTC will consolidate for 2-3 months.
A top pullback of 30-40%.
The bottom-buying range is set at 70-80K.

I disagree with all three points:

1.BTC's current trend
Yesterday, $BTC had a flash drop, $ETH dragged down altcoins in a major sell-off. This aligns with my pinned post's forecast of BTC breaking above 100K in early December and beginning a pullback in mid-December.
Depth of BTC pullback

2.The exact target for the pullback
depends on various events and macroeconomic data:
(1) If tomorrow’s U.S. November CPI meets or beats expectations (70% probability), BTC's second-wave pullback will complete through a consolidation between 90K-100K.
(2) If CPI surprises on the high side, with core CPI hitting 0.4% (30% probability), it will significantly increase the odds of the Fed not cutting rates in December.
#BTC might follow U.S. equities down to around 87K.
His claim of a 30-40% pullback is overly alarmist.

3.Duration of the BTC pullback
The second-wave pullback is likely to end before December 22, after which the third wave of growth will begin:
(1) Sentiment and market breadth in U.S. stocks are already at a low point. By late December, U.S. equities will have likely finished their correction.
(2) Historically, in bull markets, #BTC pullbacks typically last 1-2 weeks.
A Santa Rally will drive both #SPX and BTC higher, with the third wave targeting 120K.
The KOL's prediction of 2-3 months of consolidation happening this year-end is unlikely; such a scenario may occur in Q2 2025.

4.Bottom-buying range
If tomorrow’s CPI is favorable, the ideal range for BTC bottom-buying is 95K-91K; you can set staggered limit orders to accumulate.
If CPI surprises negatively, the range shifts to 91K-87K for bottom-buying. Either way, buying at these levels is a profit opportunity.
His forecasted price range might only materialize half a year later.

When will the huge pullback occur?
Likely around January 20, when Trump is inaugurated as president—this will trigger a "sell the news" reaction.

Let’s see together whose prediction proves accurate.

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 我也减了，行情难判断啊

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

这两天69-70K接的 #BTC 等币种，现价69.8K出局了

Harris的胜选赔率已上升到和Trump一致；
民调上显示，选情更焦灼；
宾州提前投票数据，Harris领先；

预计从现在到摇摆州结果出来（预计11月6日到10日），震荡会更剧烈；

所以，避险，出局了。

Just sold $BTC at 69.8K which was bought around 69-70K

Harris's odds of winning have risen to match Trump's, polling shows a tighter race, and early voting data from Pennsylvania shows Harris in the lead.

Due to anticipated volatility in the financial markets driven by the increasing uncertainty in the U.S. election.

I expect market fluctuations to become more intense from now until the swing state results come in (expected between November 6 and 10)

So I decided to exit for risk management.

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

大选后美股风口在哪？大选前后买什么卖什么？

近期美股的关键影响因素，大选、巨头财报、11月1日的就业数据；
#SPX 目前测试MA20，在5768，5670，5630都有支撑，下周可以分批加仓。

一、大选前：
预计下周的Goog，Meta，Amzn财报问题不大，APPL财报预计微弱；
预计下周五的大非农和失业率数据偏好；
若周二AMD的财报利好，则我会盘后第一时间加仓半导体 $SOXL （洗盘充分，伺机而动）;
下周一到周三，我会加仓定投 $META, 这次财报有可能会宣布拆股；

二、大选后：
1、若Trump当选：
他的政策预计是“低利率、低税率、高关税”，利好加密和AI行业及降息利好板块；
大选消息出来后，我会第一时间加仓 $BTC, $Coin, $Clsk, 半导体三倍 $SOXL, 地产 $DHI 和 $TSLA ；
第一时间卖出新能源、中概股。

2、若Harris当选：
她的政策预计是，延续拜登政策+高福利，利好新能源，利空美元；
我会第一时间加仓太阳能 $FSLR, 微软两倍 @MSFU, 半导体 $SOXL ；
第一时间卖出 $TSLA, $Coin, $Clsk, 大减仓数字货币。

三、总结
不论谁当选，都会继续印钞、加大赤字、推动AI等科技创新，这些方向就指向了风口。
不论财报如何，大选后的确定性和Santa Rally将让华尔街交易员加码，11-12月都将是美股最好的月份。

趋吉避凶，顺势而为。

Where Are the Market Opportunities for U.S. Stocks Before and After the Election?

Key Factors Affecting U.S. Stocks in the Near Term are
Election, Earnings Reports of M7, Employment Data on 1st Nov.
$SPX is currently testing the 20-day MA, with support levels at 5768, 5670, and 5630, it could be a good opportunity for phased accumulation next week.

1. Pre-Election Strategy
**Major Earnings**: Expecting solid earnings from GOOG, META, and AMZN next week, with AAPL’s earnings likely to be soft.
**Employment Data**: Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on Friday are expected to show positive trends.
**Specific Trades**:
If $AMD reports strong earnings on Tuesday, I’ll immediately add $SOXL in after-hours.
Between Monday to Wednesday, I’ll DCA $META. Its earnings call may potentially announce a stock split.

2. Post-Election Strategy
1. If Trump Wins:
- Policy Outlook: Lower interest rates, lower taxes, higher tariffs. Bullish for the crypto and AI sectors as well as rate-sensitive sectors.
- First Moves: I will add $BTC, $COIN, $CLSK, 3X semiconductor ETF $SOXL, real estate $DHI, and $TSLA immediately after the election.
- Sell: New energy and Chinese ADRs.

2. If Harris Wins:
- Policy Outlook: Likely to continue Biden’s policies with high social spending, favorable for new energy and bearish for $DXY.
- First Moves: I will add Solar energy $FSLR, 2X MSFT $MSFU, and 3X semiconductor $SOXL.
- Sell: $TSLA, $COIN, $CLSK, and reduce 50% cryptocurrency.

Long-term Outlook
Regardless of who wins, both will likely continue policies of monetary expansion, increased deficit spending, and support for tech innovation, especially in AI. These areas point to key growth drivers for the future.

In summary:
Adapt to circumstances and ride the trends.

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

再次封神！精准预测美国降息点阵图！ $BTC 能涨到哪里？

一、精准预测：
1、根据出炉的美联储SEP和点阵图，2024年底利率降至4.4%；精准落到我前天的100-125个基点年度降息幅度的���测！
2、如预期的降息了50个基点，50个基点的利好和鹰派点阵图，综合了市场的预期；
3、准确预测美国经济稳中有进的态势；

二、市场表现：
1、昨日盘中，美股震荡微跌，把高隐含波动率下的期权多空双杀；
2、盘中，做空美元、做多美债和股指的交易太拥挤，被反向清算；
3、今天盘前，#SPX和 #BTC 已纷纷收复失地，并打出新高；

三、上涨动能：
1、鲍威尔坚定表示没有看到任何衰退迹象。“衰退交易”可以告一段落了；
2、美联储预测失业率2024年底去到4.4%，2025年还是4.4%，这过于乐观了；接下来失业率的惯性上升会让美联储加大降息力度；
3、央行降息潮来临，一直提防被美元虹吸的欧洲央行、英国央行、中国央行预计会加快降息步伐；
4、10月中下旬，FTX清算的150亿美元左右资金会进入市场。

四、 $BTC 走势预测：
1���根据链上数据，鲸鱼已再次启动加仓；
2、Coinbase溢价和CME溢价，显示美国机构恢复做多BTC交易;
3、盘中到盘后，BTC走势稍强于美股，亚洲买盘积极；
4、BTC已经测试站稳MA20，并突破了下降趋势线（如下图）；

五、预测总结：
1、9月下旬季节性回调预期和大选的不确定性，会让很多投资者望而却步，导致踏空；
2、BTC降继续震荡洗盘，锯齿向上；
3、9月底前，BTC第一步先到6.8万的通道上沿；
4、BTC将在10月份，打出历史新高；
5、很多热门山寨已走出下降趋势，蠢蠢欲动；如我2天前预测，山寨季将在10月正式开启！

之前让大家在BTC 5.5万时满仓的现货拿稳，坐等起飞！合约及美股交易机会，我会不定时分享。

欢迎点赞、留言；

Another Perfect Call! Accurate Prediction of the U.S. Rate Cut Dot Plot! How High Can #BTC Go?

I. Accurate Prediction:
1. Based on the newly released Fed's SEP and dot plot, the interest rate is expected to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024. This aligns precisely with my previous prediction of a 100-125 basis point rate cut!
2. As anticipated, the rate cut was 50 basis points. The combination of a 50 bps cut and a hawkish dot plot aligns well with market expectations.
3. I've also accurately predicted that the U.S. economy would continue to show steady growth.

II. Market Performance:
1. Yesterday, SPX fell slightly, triggering a double whammy of long and short options under high implied volatility.
2. Trades like shorting the dollar, going long on U.S. bonds, and stock indices were overcrowded and got squeezed.
3. Ahead of today's session, both #SPX and #BTC have recovered and hit new highs.

III. Upward Momentum:
1. Powell firmly stated that there are no signs of a recession. The "recession trade" can be put aside for now.
2. The Fed predicts the unemployment rate will be 4.4% by the end of 2024, and still 4.4% in 2025. This is overly optimistic. The inertia in rising unemployment will likely force the Fed to accelerate rate cuts.
3. A global rate-cutting wave is imminent. Central banks such as the ECB, BoE, and PBoC, who have been wary of the dollar siphoning effect, are expected to speed up their rate cuts.
4. In mid-to-late October, approximately $15 billion from FTX liquidation is set to flow into the market.

IV. $BTC Price Forecast:
1. According to on-chain data, whales have started accumulating again.
2. The Coinbase and CME premiums indicate that U.S. institutions are resuming long positions in BTC.
3. Throughout the session and afterward, BTC has been performing slightly better than $IXIC, with strong buying interest from Asia.
4. BTC has tested and stabilized above its 20 MA and has broken the downtrend line (as shown in the chart).

V. Summary:
1. The seasonal pullback expected in September and uncertainties around the U.S. election may cause many investors to miss out.
2. BTC will continue its zig-zag upward move through some choppy consolidation.
3. By the end of September, BTC is expected to reach the upper end of the channel at $68k.
4. In October, BTC is poised to hit a new all-time high.
5. Many popular altcoins have already broken out of their downtrend and are starting to look lively. As I predicted two days ago, alt-season will officially kick off in October!

For the followers who took my advice to go all-in on $BTC $ETH $SOL at $55k, hold your spot positions and get ready for liftoff!
I’ll continue to share some stock and crypto trading opportunities as they arise.

Feel free to like, comment, and share!

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

Great prediction

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

再次精准预测���PPI数据！
别怕， $BTC $SPX 回调找买点。

Accurately predicted the PPI data again!
Don't be scared, #BTC #SPX, wait for buying opportunities during the pullback.

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@maxiprotocol 🩵🩵

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

exciting time ahead

[MAX AI @maxiprotocol]

Thrilled to share that our director - Prof. Yu Xiong, was invited to speak at the Innovation and Integration of AI and Security event in Tokyo 🇯🇵

Hosted by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, we are excited about the future of AI and the launch of $MAX AI🤖

[MAX AI @maxiprotocol]

Thrilled to share that our director - Prof. Yu Xiong, was invited to speak at the Innovation and Integration of AI and Security event in Tokyo 🇯🇵

Hosted by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, we are excited about the future of AI and the launch of $MAX AI🤖

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 跟上了！

[Jeremy @Jeremykim03]

@LordWilliamUK 收到

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

美国杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔全面鸽派；
鲍威尔的政策转变已经完成。
加仓了 $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, 美股 $TNA, $DPST 和地产股；

The Powell pivot is complete.
Just added $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $TNA, $DPST etc；

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

跟上了吗？老铁们。 大爆涨，难以想象！
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $TNA, $DPST

Have you followed my alpha call, Mates?
#BTC #SPX