Jerikko: Econ & Pol

Unfiltered econ & pol analysis: Markets, migration policies, global power shifts.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Munich Security Conference 2026 wraps with a stark theme: "Under Destruction." Wrecking-ball politics dominate—US as the lead demolition actor in the post-1945 order. Key statements from Rubio and Kallas highlight transatlantic friction and Europe's push for strategic autonomy. Thread 👇 #Geopolitics #MSC2026

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

https://t.co/yvJOwOS4xE

[Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt]

Saving LA - Phase III

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@nicksortor SCOTUS 6-3 limits the old authority but the immediate new 10% tariff shows continuity. Combined with hot core PCE, it layers real trade and inflation risks onto global supply chains and EMs. Volatility up.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@LarkDavis Exactly, 1.4% GDP and 3.0% core PCE is a rough mix. Keeps the Fed cautious and the dollar firm, with ripple effects on global capital flows and commodities. This shifts 2026 pricing noticeably.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@truflation Spot on with the +3.0% core print. Paired with that 1.4% Q4 GDP, it really reinforces higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Stronger USD and tighter global conditions ahead – this one matters for markets everywhere.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Add the SCOTUS 6-3 tariff ruling and the quick follow-on 10% global tariff announcement, and trade uncertainty rises sharply. Global 2026 outlook just got more complicated. How many Fed cuts are you now expecting this year? Drop your number or biggest risk below. (BEA 20 Feb)

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

BEA data yesterday: core PCE came in hot at +0.4% MoM and +3.0% YoY for December – higher than expected and up from last month. Meanwhile Q4 GDP slowed to just +1.4%. Sticky services inflation paired with softening growth. This is the scenario worth watching closely.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

This setup points to the Fed staying on hold longer, with meaningful rate cuts now looking delayed well into 2026. That means higher real yields, a firmer USD, and tighter financial conditions spreading across global markets.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Strong calendar summary. With US markets closed Monday and PCE data landing Friday, the Fed speaker comments mid-week will carry outsized weight. The recent CPI print already tilted sentiment slightly dovish; if PCE follows suit, we could see yields soften further before month-end.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Appreciate the clear weekly framing. The contrast between last week’s softer headline CPI and the still-elevated services component continues to define the Fed’s narrow path. Markets seem to be pricing in gradual disinflation without rushing toward aggressive easing, which feels prudent given the data.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Calling it a “circus” from Iran’s side captures the current fracture lines perfectly. Rubio’s message of shared interests with Europe while pushing recalibration shows the US is still trying to thread the needle between alliance continuity and policy disruption. The real test will be how Europe responds on defense spending and autonomy in the months ahead.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Bottom line: Incremental reform losing ground to destructive impulses. Does this accelerate Europe's defense buildup or deepen divisions? Reply with your read. Follow for daily unfiltered macro + geopol breakdowns. #Markets #Migration

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Munich Security Conference 2026 wraps with a stark theme: "Under Destruction." Wrecking-ball politics dominate—US as the lead demolition actor in the post-1945 order. Key statements from Rubio and Kallas highlight transatlantic friction and Europe's push for strategic autonomy. Thread 👇 #Geopolitics #MSC2026

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Indo-Pacific angle: Pact or fiction? Tariffs and alliances widen growth divergences. BRICS commodity exporters remain vulnerable if US restraint persists. Global power shift accelerating—watch oil/gold/copper for early signals.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@LiveSquawk With the services anchor (shelter contribution) persisting, will enforcement and deportations add meaningful wage-push upside to core inflation? Short-term headwind or long-term fiscal win?

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@financialjuice Futures pricing more easing after softer headline. Contrarian take: Cyclicals/value sectors still outperform tech/AI amid policy-driven inflation persistence. Rotation favored over speculation.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

@zerohedge Headline surprise at 2.4% YoY eases pressure, but core services stickiness persists. Migration enforcement removes low-wage supply → potential +0.5–1 pp wage-push to core over 12M. Short-term inflation risk vs. long-term fiscal/net-benefit. Unfiltered reality.

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Market read: Softer headline eases disinflation worries, but core services holding firm—does this accelerate or delay rate-cut expectations? Reply with your take. Follow for daily unfiltered macro + geopolitics. #Markets #Geopolitics #Migration

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

January 2026 CPI released. Headline: 2.4% YoY (vs exp 2.5%). Core: 2.5% YoY / +0.3% MoM. Headline softer than expected on energy pullback, but services (shelter +0.2% MoM) still anchors stubbornly—Fed path remains data-dependent. Thread below. #CPI #Inflation #Fed

[Jerikko: Econ & Pol @Jerikko69]

Contrarian view: Cyclical/value sectors (transports, industrials) outperforming tech/AI in early 2026 due to policy-driven inflation stickiness. Favor rotation over speculation in positioning.