Believe it when you see it …
Francisco Lindor signed a ball after his Disclosure Day commercial and we’re giving it away!
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Y'all, I was REAAALLLY hoping to see some Platinum Chrome odds before the night was through.
But at this point, I've accepted it's just not gonna happen. I've never seen Topps release odds past 11pm.
I have an early morning tomorrow, then I’m leaving town in the afternoon through the rest of the weekend. There’s a chance odds drop tomorrow morning before release, but if that happens, I just don’t see any way I can get a full analysis done before Monday.
So, as much as I’d like to help you decide what to do with your card funds tomorrow, I can only be of limited help until I actually see some odds.
But here’s what we know:
We have three releases tomorrow:
2026 Topps Chrome Platinum
2025 Topps Signature Class Football
2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire UFC
Of the three, we have odds on precisely zero.
Good lookin’ out there, @Topps.
Let me start with Signature Class.
From all appearances, it should be very similar in box/set dynamics to Signature Class NBA. It is cheaper than the NBA version, so at least it has that going for it.
I had some thoughts, and a full analysis, on Signature NBA. You can see that here:
https://t.co/75TltDVRNG
Spoiler alert: I wasn’t very fond of the product. And that hasn’t changed just because I’ve seen it now. In fact, I’m a little surprised at how accurate I was, since that was written before release.
It’s probably safe to assume a large chunk of that analysis also applies to Signature NFL. So tread lightly.
Now Sapphire UFC.
I love a good Sapphire release. And $250/box is toward the low end of what you will ever see a Sapphire drop priced at.
I love that it’s limited, typically around 1,000 cases, except for more niche offerings like Bundesliga Sapphire, which are closer to 500 cases. I’m not quite sure which bucket this one falls into. If there are only 500 cases produced, I like it more. But I suspect it’s probably a 1,000 case product.
I’m also fairly certain it will have the typical Sapphire dynamics:
3 or 4 numbered parallels
1 auto
A couple rare inserts per case
The biggest thing working against this one is the UFC singles market. It’s a finicky, weird animal.
Take a look at UFC Sapphire single sales. Vastly underwhelming, although some obscure names do surprisingly well (and I'm a UFC fan). Across the board, they just don’t hold the value they probably should for a popular worldwide sport.
I know there are die-hard UFC collectors, and honestly, I think that’s a good place to be if you care about value. But for some reason, the UFC card audience doesn’t seem massive enough to prop up values across the multitude of UFC releases we’ve seen recently.
If you are a UFC collector, you could do worse than Sapphire at $250.
I wouldn’t buy it expecting to flip, or even to recoup your spend in singles. But Sapphire is always an exciting rip, and there is definitely nuke potential.
Now on to what the entire baseball community has spent two years waiting for:
2025 Topps Chrome Platinum.
(So glad they retired the word "Anniversary" from the name.)
We last saw this in 2024 with the release of 2023 Platinum Chrome, and it was a mega-hit. 2022 Platinum Chrome was also fantastic. 2021, not so much. The inaugural year ended up being the worst of the bunch due to the bloated 700-card checklist. Thankfully, it has since been trimmed to 500.
Here’s why this product is so beloved now: it’s loaded with parallels.
Of course, it’s Chrome, and everyone loves Chrome. It’s also fairly affordable Chrome, which certainly helps.
In the past, it hasn’t been much on variety. Massive base set, fairly deep rainbow of parallels, and a huge auto checklist of every name you could possibly want.
For 2025, I expect it to be noticeably better because Topps has added some much-needed inserts to the checklist to break up the monotony.
Of course, all the parallels are great.
It looks like we’re seeing 1-2 numbered cards and a handful of unnumbered parallels in blasters.
Hobby boxes appear to be landing around 5-7 numbered cards and a similar number of unnumbered parallels.
All of that is solid.
Another impactful change is the rare insert dynamic.
The only thing resembling a “case hit” in Platty has been the City Variation parallels, but they were fundamentally flawed.
First, in the past, they haven’t looked miles better than your average base card. They just had a cityscape in the background that didn’t really pop. There were ultra-rare refractors with print runs in the neighborhood of 10 copies each, but hardly anyone knew that. Again, they didn’t really stand out.
In my mind, the biggest flaw was the fact they came as a bonus pack of 4 cards, with 1 pack per Hobby case.
That dynamic is exciting when you hit one, but you better be getting your boxes from a trusted source, because it also lends itself to weighing shenanigans. If you bought Hobby boxes off eBay, I assure you the chances of hitting a City Variation pack were less than typical.
This year, they fixed it.
City Variations are seeded into packs like any other parallel. And they look better than they ever have, especially the ultra-scarce City Variation autos, which are a new addition.
They are stunning cards.
This product needed a real case hit, and that’s at least a start. I still believe there’s room for another rare insert or two that isn’t just a parallel of the base card. But hopefully that shows up down the line somewhere.
To get to the point, Platinum Chrome is a very safe buy at the drop price of $150/box.Regardless of what you plan to do with it- rip, flip, or stash- it checks all the boxes.
I don’t love that the price went up while the cards per box went down. But that’s the world we live in now, so whatever.
Without proper analysis of odds, I can’t tell you definitively whether Hobby or Value boxes are better.
Hobby will probably spike more in price. Value boxes will almost certainly produce more parallels for the same spend, but I sense a higher concentration of low-numbered stuff from Hobby.
Value boxes have shown to be a great rip, and they will likely increase in price as they dry up over the next few weeks. If you see some in the wild, I recommend snagging what you can. I will certainly be going after both formats myself. You definitely can’t go wrong with either format.
Of course, when we see odds, I’ll spend time diving in and pulling out all the details. But that’s all I can do for now.
Good luck everyone.
And be good to each other.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics
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Who wants to rip a Topps Chrome Football Mega Box?
- Follow @CardPurchaser
- Like and reply with your favorite NFL player
Winners drawn 6/7 at 9pm central! US shipping please! Scroll my feed daily for cool card stuff.
🚨 NBA FINALS GIVEAWAY 🚨
We’re giving away a FREE Rookie Victor Wembanyama PSA 10 card 👀
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• Like this post
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Bonus:
• Retweet for an extra chance to win
That’s it. Good luck!
Gavin Williams takes the bump tonight against the Yankees 👀
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Star Wars Masterwork drops in an hour on the Topps site via EQL.
Appropriately, I was able to do some analysis on May 4th, so figured I'd throw it back up in case anyone was on the fence about purchasing.
2025 Topps Star Wars Masterwork Factory Sealed Hobby Box #ad
Product Drop open for entries on the Fanatics APP only
Enter Here: https://t.co/7wup3X1ogE