Let me ruin your June for a second.
Every year when National Gun Violence Awareness Month rolls around, the same people who have not read a single page of John Lott's 13,312-regression peer-reviewed study start posting pictures of children and demanding you feel responsible for deaths you did not cause and had nothing to do with.
So. Let us talk about children. Since they brought it up.
In 2006, the CDC recorded 642 accidental firearm deaths in the entire United States. For children under the age of ten — the number was 31. Thirteen under age five. Eighteen between five and nine.
Tragic? Absolutely. Every single one.
But here is the number that will not appear on a single "Orange Friday" awareness post: 80.
Eighty children under the age of five drown in bathtubs every year. Every. Single. Year.
ALMOST THREE TIMES as many children drown in bathtubs annually as die from ALL firearm accidents combined — including adults. And forty more drown in five-gallon water buckets. The kind you buy at Home Depot for $4.99.
I have given this information at talks and watched jaws drop, because people genuinely believe the number is in the thousands. They have been so thoroughly marinated in "gun violence awareness" content that their perception of actual risk is completely detached from reality. That is not an accident. That is the point of the campaign.
Where is Bathtub Awareness Month? Where is the congressional hearing on five-gallon bucket control? Where is the hashtag? Where are the orange ribbons for the children who drowned while their parents were in the next room?
There are none. Because the campaign was never about children. It was never about safety. If it were about safety, they would be equally outraged about cars — which killed 1,305 children that same year. Or fire. Or drowning. But they are not. The selective fury lands exclusively on firearms. And if you are a scientist, which I happen to be, you do not get to cherry-pick your data based on which conclusion you prefer. Quinn's Law Number Six: facts are the enemy of liberalism.
Now let us talk about what the actual data says about guns and safety, because John Lott ran 13,000-plus statistical regressions across every county in America and the results are not ambiguous.
Fifty-six percent of convicted felons surveyed in a ten-state study said they would NOT attack a target they believed was armed. Fifty-six percent. The deterrence is real, it is documented, and it functions whether or not a shot is ever fired. The firearm you carry protects your neighbor whether your neighbor knows it or not.
When states passed right-to-carry laws, multiple-victim public shootings — what the media insists on calling "mass shootings" to maximize terror — dropped by 67 percent. Deaths in those events dropped by 75 percent. Injuries by 81 percent. States that adopted these laws virtually ELIMINATED mass public shootings within four to five years. The remaining events? They happened almost exclusively in the specific locations where guns remained banned. The gun-free zones. The places we hang the sign that only the law-abiding ever read.
There were between 760,000 and 3.6 million defensive gun uses in the United States last year alone, depending on which of fifteen national polls you consult. A JAMA Network Open study from March 2025 estimated 489,000 DGUs in which a firearm was actually discharged. The Department of Justice's own National Crime Victimization Survey puts the conservative floor at 65,000 defensive uses per year against assaults, robberies, and home invasions.
No dead body. No coverage. No awareness month.
Here is one more number for you: 74. Seventy-four percent of convicted felons in a National Institute of Justice survey said they actively avoided homes they believed were occupied by armed residents. Criminals respond to incentives. That is not ideology — that is basic deterrence theory, and it is confirmed by the people who actually commit the crimes.
I also want you to think carefully about something the Supreme Court already settled. DeShaney v. Winnebago County (1989). Town of Castle Rock v. Gonzales (2005). Two separate rulings establishing that the government has NO legal obligation to protect you as an individual. None. You are your own first responder. That is not my opinion — that is settled constitutional law from the highest court in this country.
So the political class that just told you the government is not required to protect you... is also the one demanding you surrender the tool you use to protect yourself.
I want fewer people dead. That is why I know the data. That is why I read the book. That is why I am furious every June when emotion and fundraising replace science and evidence in a "debate" that has actual life-or-death consequences for real people.
You want to honor the children? Honor ALL of them. The ones who drowned. The ones who died in car crashes. And the ones who will never be born because a woman alone in her house at 2 a.m. had no way to stop what was coming through her door.
But what do I know — I am only a published textbook author, a science teacher, a father of four, and a combat medic who spent his career reducing human suffering and who actually read the peer-reviewed data before forming an opinion.
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COMMENT below — did you know the bathtub number? Or did the narrative keep that from you? Tell me.
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#MAGA #Veterans #Trump
@JoJoFromJerz@GuntherEagleman@catturd2
@MilesTrav That's because most white "racists" have a Christian upbringing.
They know that everyone is one of God's children and treat them with a certain degree of respect... even if they don't like associating with them.
@avidseries Reported rate or actual rate?
I've got no dog in the hunt but it's been a thing that Democrat cities aren't recording crime stats accurately.
@TheJeffPutnam That sucks.
We have GPS trackers hidden on every piece of machinery, trailer, and truck in our fleet.
I lost equipment when my company was small and the loss was financially devastating.
At least with the trackers, we have a chance to catch the bastards next time.
My moderate position is that I’m fine with paying taxes to feed other people’s kids, but only if the deadbeat parents aren’t allowed to vote until they can feed their own kids.
That feeling when your knowledge about how average IQ varies with caste rank in India stops being peculiar arcana and suddenly becomes deeply relevant to US domestic politics...
Anybody who has studied the matter knows that castes in India have been maintaining almost perfect endogamy for thousands of years. About the only significant category of exceptions is that if you have an exceptionally beautiful daughter you *might* succeed in getting her taken as a concubine by a higher-caste man, so their offspring might jump a rank.
With no significant gene flow between jatis, divergences in important traits like IQ and time preference not only don't smooth out, but actually amplify due to genetic drift and differing selective pressures.
Highest-caste Indians have an IQ distribution a lot like Europeans. Low-caste Indians...don't. They're not quite as genetically handicapped as the dimmest populations in sub-Saharan Africa, thankfully, but the spread is wide.
This doesn't mean all low-caste Indians are stupid; Gaussian distributions don't work that way. It does mean that importing 10,000 low-caste Indians has very different implications for the host society then importing 10,000 Brahmins.
Segue to the recent news stories about American families getting killed by illiterate Indian truck drivers doing crazy stupid things on the roadways. Those truck drivers are not Brahmins.
This is a recent phenomenon because, until one of our political parties decided to import the entire Third World for vote-farming purposes, we were cream-skimming India. Now we're not, and this makes a serious difference.
@WatcherontheWeb Truth.
I recently completed a nationwide RV trip.
New England.. fuck those folks.
Everywhere else is decent except Memphis and Chicago.
I met some nice folks in New England but they were the exception, not the rule.
The folks out west seemed genuinely nice.