Ordi

Ordinary investor

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

@TheLongInvest How about $BTC?

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

My base case is simple. UNH does not need a miracle product to recover. It needs uncertainty to shrink. Clearer policy, clearer cost trajectory, and fewer surprise expenses. When those three lines up, the multiple can expand again, and the stock starts acting like a compounder.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

UNH gave me the same “something is sitting on the stock” feeling yesterday. The drop did not look like people suddenly decided the business is broken. It looked like the market yanking away a premium because uncertainty got louder than the numbers.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

The important part is what happens next. The CMS rate is not final yet, and the final decision matters more than the draft. If the final outcome is less harsh than feared, or if UNH shows costs stabilizing, the stock can re rate quickly because the starting point is now low.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

So the stock is pressed by policy and supply flow risk, not by demand. This clears when the China path becomes clear, not when NVIDIA shows another shiny demo.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

NVIDIA feels oddly “held down” lately. Not because demand is weak, but because uncertainty keeps sitting on the stock.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

Hyperscalers are still funding the buildout, even raising more debt to do it. Money is flowing, but the market is getting stricter about how fast it turns into profit.

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

@KillaXBT USD index is decreasing. How do you think about it on BTC?

[Ordi @JkSimhong]

@dylanleclair Where do they get money to buy BTC?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

De facto encouragement of murder

[조재우(Jaewoo Cho)⚡️ @clayop]

#Bitcoin Realized price는 최초로 $40k를 달성했습니다. 바닥을 기준이 되는 대표적인 지표이기 때문에 가끔씩 체크하는 습관을 들이면 좋습니다.
이번 사이클에서 이 수치가 $70~80 정도까지 상승하길 기대하고 있습니다.

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

Outlook for the next 1 week to 6 months and of course, your favourite ALT SEASON.

There are many form of analysis. Fundamental, Technical, Policy, Sentiment, On-chain, Seasonality, Liquidity, Macro, game theory blah blah blah

It’s one ability to adapt to these ever changing correlations.

If I’ve followed liquidity analysis the last 3 months, we’ve probably missed this entire run up.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS
If you followed my post for the last few months, seasonality and liquidations been taking the lead.
From a seasonality perspective going all the way back, you can see eth strength comes in 1st half of the year.

We are few days from January. There’s no fking way you’ll be able to sell at the top and buy back at the bottom within a month timeframe shit coining.

Also this past tweet: So far this seasonal chart been spot on for December. https://t.co/aUdZejwc6Y

MACRO ANALYSIS ( LONG TERM )
Raoul and Julian are good at this, so here’s their analysis
ISM going up = Good

GAME THEORY ANALYSIS
Known “knowns”:
SBR = 100%
Crypto Deregulation = 100%
Every mfer I know, is bearish Jan. Just look at CT’s timeline. Here’s a complete opposite stance:

Trump needs a compelling reason to sign an Executive Order on Day 1 for the SBR. A major country will announce their Bitcoin holdings just before his inauguration front running Trump and the race to accumulate starts. Front-running should start in Jan.

LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
It’s not a secret. Liquidity sucks and it sucks for the past few months yet we climb higher. If there’s a lag effect, January nuke gonna be bad, but a fast wick. So fast 99% can't catch it.

USD strength is also a quick immediate reflection of liquidity. Dollar strength = Bad liquidity. Study Dollar milkshake theory. This chart is interesting because it mirrors 2017 USD strength when Trump was voted in.

If this chart moves inline, Dollar down from here is extreme liquidity positive. Trump likes weak dollar for export. Let’s see how this plays out.

TLDR;
1 week - Positive ( Dec seasonality )
1 month - Negative ( Liquidity )
6 months - Vahalla

My gut feeling telling me a nuke is coming in Jan. But we are so near alt season this quote keeps ringing in my head.

I’m just gonna ride this through. Fk it. MCD or Vahalla.

[The AI Investor @The_AI_Investor]

"Taiwan AI server makers Wiwynn, Wistron, Inventec reported strong monthly revenue in November
- Wiwynn’s revenue rose 93.3% year-on-year to NT$37.5 billion (US$1.16 billion),
- Inventec’s +37.9% to NT$60.9 billion
- Wistron’s +24.6% to NT$95.2 billion. "

$NVDA

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

$AMZN will generate over $575 billion cloud revenue by 2032 if it can just own 25% of the market.

At 30% profit margin and 20 times earnings multiple, this business will alone worth $3.5 trillion.

Now you are basically paying nothing for Amazon’s other businesses.