Joe Dobrin, MD

Physician-scientist, father, husband, itinerant baseball fan. Tweets are not medical advice.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@Saul_Sadka @GaryHaubold Not confirmed. But serious people in the field are taking the idea seriously. https://t.co/QTjfiOOV3E

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

This gets a like, a repost and a bookmark.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@Saul_Sadka While Israel's multi-layered BMD system, in total, has a >85% success rate, the intercept rate for each fired Arrow 3 is classified, and therefore is unknown to the public. A reasonable estimate would be 50-70%, which is still quite good.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@RWPUSA https://t.co/l9ealYHSJn

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@RWPUSA There's an extensive public record of Joe Kent trafficking in conspiracy theories, antisemitic tropes, J6 denialism, and associating with Nick Fuentes and other Nazi-praising, or Nazi-adjacent actors. It's not wrong to call out his behavior.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@CreekshitinDaws @KMutisi Nice gif, and you're right the footage is old. The video is from October, 2024.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@EarlyLif3 @KMutisi @grok Neither. It's from October, 2024.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@MrClevelandOh @KMutisi @grok October, 2024.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@jimNjue_ This footage was from October, 2024. Of course, you know that. Those following you may not. Now they do.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@FRHoffmann1 Interesting analysis. 2 Q's: 1) As Stunner is an HTK (hit-to-kill) weapon without an explosive warhead, wouldn't the explosion in the video indicate it did, in fact, intercept its target (a second incoming MRBM)? 2) How do u know the featured interception isn't another Stunner?

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@aryehazan @MaxAbrahms @ProfessorPape It's hard to square that with mounting dozens of cluster munitions on their largest missiles, and releasing them at an altitude of 70-100km where they disperse to have essentially zero military value, but are quite effective at terrorizing a large civilian population.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@ka_grieco Doesn't the fast littoral combat ships' new anti-drone and missile packages, and ability to deploy from a safe distance unmanned mine-disabling sea drones, provide the rationale for replacing the old minesweepers with repurposed LCSs?

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@1goodtern What does "end the people who started it" mean?

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@ka_grieco @dawn2042 Thank you for this important analysis. Quick question... We don't hear much about successful drone attacks on Israel during current fighting (although there were a few in 2024/5). Have the Israelis learned from the experience to develop a better anti-drone defense?

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@shdisksgayg @dex_eve @GuyPlopsky @grok It can be engaged during the mid-course (exo-atmospheric) part of its flight by Arrow 3 or SM-3. While there have been many successful intercepts at this stage, I'm not sure it's possible to identify the type of incoming Iranian missile until parts of it strike the ground.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@GrandpaRoy2 @DIPLOMACYnWAR Not so much. Released at this altitude, assuming there were 10 exposed planes on the flight line, you'd have approximately a 1 in 1000 chance of hitting one of them - assuming all of the submunitions survived reentry and exploded on impact.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@rodrigocunha_rj @GrandpaRoy2 Released at this altitude, decoys are the only plausible military purpose. Their dispersal over a roughly 8km radius upon ground impact make them an indiscriminate weapon of terror, but militarily useless.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@RachelBitecofer Over the long-term, insurers may demand the construction of more oil pipelines and terminals outside the Persian/Arabian Gulf. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in Syria or even Israel in coming years. While this won't help in this crisis, it may reduce future risk.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@SethAbramson CNN acknowledges Pleitgen is allowed to report only on topics and in a manner approved by the Islamic Republic. At best, this is war tourism. At worst it is platforming regime propaganda. It doesn't rise to the level of journalism - in the way it is practiced in the West.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@SethAbramson The statement said "active combat", not "dog fight". The most plausible explanation is that the F15s were on an anti-drone/cruise missile mission. While it's reasonable to doubt DoD assertions, that the jets crashed over Kuwait lends some credence to the friendly-fire claim.

[Joe Dobrin, MD @JoeDobrin]

@hippiedaytrader @TheJFreakinC Agreed. I counted at least a few felonies committed by ICE agents in this video. Immigration enforcement in a democracy is typically targeted, painstaking, and methodical work. If they can't do it properly and lawfully, they have no business in this city. They need to go home.