🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱

Former Republican, Politically Homeless,
Never Trump, Never Vance,
Bomb Iran,
Outlaw Unions,
Haley Voter,
Redistricting Expert.
🇺🇦🇮🇱

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

According to State Navigate:
Gov Margin Projection: Spanberger+14.0
My Prediction: Spanberger+14
HoD: 64-36 D
My Prediction: 64-36 D
Unless AC Cordoza pulls off a miracle I will have 100/100 HoD races correct and be within 0.1% of the gov margin.
Please clap.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

FINAL 2025 PREDICTIONS:
VA Gov: Safe D🟦
Spanberger+14
VA LT Gov: Safe D🟦
Hashmi+11.5
VA AG: Leans D🟦
Jones+2
NJ Gov: Likely D🟦
Sherrill+7
VA HoD: Safe D🟦
64-36 D
NJ GA: Safe D 🟦
53-27 D
NYC Mayor: Safe Mamdani🟦
Mamdani 50%
Cuomo 30%
Sliwa 20%
In short, I expect a blue wave

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@KileyStanOR I agree that's the most likely explanation. Other polls have shown the expected result though

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

Well that's odd. If anything I am expecting them to split the other way. Just 1 poll though

[Rémy Numa @remynuma]

🦊🚨 NEW Fox News Poll @BretBaier

OHIO SENATE RACE
Vote Preference
Brown (D) - 53%
Husted (R) - 45%

OHIO GOVERNOR RACE
Vote Preference
Acton (D) - 50%
Ramaswamy (R) - 49%

May 28-Jun 1, RV ±3

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@AndrewJ132 Election day votes have already been counted

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

CA-6 is at near-zero risk for democrats. the most republican leaning ballots have all been counted with 50% in, and a D is just 1 point out of the top 2. It would be astonishing if they did not advance.

[Tim Miller @Timodc]

Another disaster for the California Democratic Party which may end up rake stepping one of the seats the could’ve picked up after redistricting.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@AndrewJ132 Ds voted very late this time because they weren't sure who they wanted for gov

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

I generally dont find internal polls very valuable to look at but given that you can literally rig them to say whatever you want its hilarious Platner would publish this to feed the narrative that he is losing.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

MAINE POLL - Senate (Platner internal)

🟦 Graham Platner: 49%
🟥 Susan Collins: 45%
⬜️ Not sure: 6%

@ppppolls | 6/2-3 | 670 RV | ±3.8%
https://t.co/vfL0RgldSr

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

Week long elections isn't just a CA problem, NV, AZ, UT, OR, WA all operate this way, red and blue states alike. It's a western problem. The eastern states count 95%+ on election night, and deal with late ballots a little later. No good reason for this 3rd world counting process.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@MysteryFountain These are probably the reddest hispanic voters in the state, as its before blue mail and mostly small counties, none of urban socal is included bc they only used whole counties. Plus the jungle primary "margin" is meaningless. I think you understand this, Ingram definitely doesnt

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

Holy data illiteracy

[Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle]

Hilton’s strong showing among Hispanic voters is very encouraging.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@lordpet8 Definitely a drop but they could have lost outright

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

Best piece of news for the GOP tonight is outvoting dems in Iowa by about 3 points

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@thebearpundit no

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@suburbanwinebro I just read that IA was closed, I forgot they had registration, might have helped Rs a bit

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@ColinArtinger I forgot they were closed, that's probably the more relevant part

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@TheANRP Obv doesn't help the Ds, but it's still notable. As long as there is 1 contested race I don't give them too much extra credit for that.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@MassReagan2 he's a random farmer and I believe farther right than Feenstra, so doubt

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

So before any of the late mail, Hilton + Bianco are combining for about 38% of the vote, will likely see a wide partisan margin in the end here with the blue shift later on.

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@RepElections this and ohio have been the only good ones for Rs

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@JustR_02 OH also narrowly stayed R. I think my prediction of blue texas but red ohio and iowa is looking decent. Sand is gonna win but idk if Ds make any real ground with rural whites

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

@FLPolEnjoyer I think she is gonna get 3rd at this rate. but if it were she'd probably be ok

[🇩🇰Joe🇬🇱 @JoeNC05]

yikes