According to State Navigate:
Gov Margin Projection: Spanberger+14.0
My Prediction: Spanberger+14
HoD: 64-36 D
My Prediction: 64-36 D
Unless AC Cordoza pulls off a miracle I will have 100/100 HoD races correct and be within 0.1% of the gov margin.
Please clap.
FINAL 2025 PREDICTIONS:
VA Gov: Safe D๐ฆ
Spanberger+14
VA LT Gov: Safe D๐ฆ
Hashmi+11.5
VA AG: Leans D๐ฆ
Jones+2
NJ Gov: Likely D๐ฆ
Sherrill+7
VA HoD: Safe D๐ฆ
64-36 D
NJ GA: Safe D ๐ฆ
53-27 D
NYC Mayor: Safe Mamdani๐ฆ
Mamdani 50%
Cuomo 30%
Sliwa 20%
In short, I expect a blue wave
CA-6 is at near-zero risk for democrats. the most republican leaning ballots have all been counted with 50% in, and a D is just 1 point out of the top 2. It would be astonishing if they did not advance.
I generally dont find internal polls very valuable to look at but given that you can literally rig them to say whatever you want its hilarious Platner would publish this to feed the narrative that he is losing.
Week long elections isn't just a CA problem, NV, AZ, UT, OR, WA all operate this way, red and blue states alike. It's a western problem. The eastern states count 95%+ on election night, and deal with late ballots a little later. No good reason for this 3rd world counting process.
@MysteryFountain These are probably the reddest hispanic voters in the state, as its before blue mail and mostly small counties, none of urban socal is included bc they only used whole counties. Plus the jungle primary "margin" is meaningless. I think you understand this, Ingram definitely doesnt
So before any of the late mail, Hilton + Bianco are combining for about 38% of the vote, will likely see a wide partisan margin in the end here with the blue shift later on.
@JustR_02 OH also narrowly stayed R. I think my prediction of blue texas but red ohio and iowa is looking decent. Sand is gonna win but idk if Ds make any real ground with rural whites