John Ballingall

Economist at Sense Partners, trade geek, rugby ref. All comments my own.

[Michael Reddell @MHReddell]

@Charteddaily Which just illustrates the utter irrelevance of the target, since the bulk of the increase presumably reflects simply rising global gold prices which I suspect not even Shane Jones would attempt to claim credit for.

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@Abhas7654321 @YouTube For NZ, exports could easily double from the current low base. For India, not as much because the NZ market is small and didn't have high tariffs to begin with.

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

Chatting India FTA 'controversies' - investment, tariff clawbacks, visas and a gratuitous comment about Liz Hurley

Coalition parties trade blows over India agreement | Focus on Politics https://t.co/N55BTQYpw9 via @YouTube

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

4. FTAs are always compromises, esp when you're a small ecy seeking concessions from a huge one that isn't a fan of free trade, doesn't need an FTA & holds all the cards. Keen to know what WP would have done differently - what would he have foregone to uphold NZ 'values'?

4/4

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

Once more for the hard of hearing:

1. Obligation is to "promote investment", not achieve the target. If we don't promote it hard enough, then after 18 yrs & a lot of process India *could* temp reimpose tariffs. Exactly $0 of duties saved in that 18 yrs will be clawed back. 1/4

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

We've affirmed/noted UNDRIP in UK, EU and UAE FTAs too, so this is not a new thing.

3/4

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@JNAli09 Nope. We all want one team to win, are corrupt, out of our depth and certainly don't face any consequences of our shocking performances 😉

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

I mean, apart from these points, the tariffs were brilliant

[Erica York @ericadyork]

One year after Liberation Day, the evidence does not support the administration’s core claims.

Tariffs weren't reciprocal, didn't produce an investment surge, generated less revenue than projected, didn't pay down the national debt, and pushed prices up. https://t.co/SPmOVeLhJS

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@Flutemaster6969 @JamieWall2 You seem nice.

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

Time to move levels on the national fuel plan 🚨

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@NewYorkNixon @JamieWall2 Perhaps we should trial a reduced role for the TMO that would have prevented this... but that would be one of the stupid SRP law innovations that are so detested oop North 😉

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@JamieWall2 Agree 100%

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

@MadMaclegend Like I have a life beyond trade policy...🥲

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

NZ is named amongst 60 countries to be investigated. More tariff uncertainty awaits. Sigh.

But it's a big [yuuuge] stretch to say NZ's lack of a ban on forced labour imports burdens or restricts US commerce in any material sense.

Here's why (non-legal take)... brief🧵

1/5

[United States Trade Representative @USTradeRep]

Ambassador Greer launched Section 301 investigations into acts, policies, and practices of 60 economies to determine whether foreign governments have taken sufficient steps to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labor.

Learn more: https://t.co/E8HBZYZcyV

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

NZ has an opp to present its case and I know we'll do so v strongly. So no need to panic yet.

But consideration of some deal, or signs of movement towards more stringent measures on forced labour, may be required, regardless of the lack of economic logic here.

5/5

[John Ballingall @JohnBallingall]

US has never raised this as a concern for NZ in its annual 'National Trade Estimates' doc where it lists trade/reg beefs with each country. And it's usually not shy in flagging gripes, no matter their merits. So this is a very novel line of attack. Grasping at straws?

4/5