Auckland small business owner. Retired NZ diplomat. Former Ambassador to China, CT Amb, Amb to Argentina, C-G in Hong Kong, and Chargé in Washington DC.
The US has been having quite a party exploiting its global financial economic primacy but most Americans did not get invitations and the bills are mounting up.
Just watch @scott_colom's closing ad again and let it sink in what his win means for Mississippi. Here's to Senator Colom doing great things for Mississippians and America in the years to come, and now let's elect a Governor in 2027 who actually wants to help Mississippians. Amen!
The arguments in favour of a Grand Coalition government for the next three years, based around National and Labour and with a rotating Prime Ministership, keep growing. Early positioning moves by the smaller parties of a potential National-ACT-NZF coalition suggest triumphalist intent to hold National to ransom and impose extremist agendas. This will include confronting China, our largest trade partner already unhappy about New Zealand’s high handedness, with major trade and economic risks and no upsides.
The prospects for a viable and stable potential alternative centre left coalition appear no better taking into account the track record of TPM and the enormous leverage that it and the Greens would have in any centre left government negotiations based on a knife edge majority.
Disenchantment with the way the MMP electoral system is performing, as currently set up, is loud and escalating. The unfairness of the old FPP system is reappearing under the system meant to cure it. Serious and urgent review is required.
Given the destabilising alternatives, National and Labour need to put ego and personality aside and negotiate in good faith to give New Zealand a three year spell of steady-as-she-goes centrist consensus government while major systemic and structural issues can be addressed and progressed with good faith, balance and inclusiveness.
There is a different potential political path forward staring us in the face. Whatever the challenges in overcoming deeply ingrained tribal prejudices, is this not a moment when the New Zealand electorate should expect our political leaders to at least seriously consider and explore the possibility of a new government based around a National-Labour Coalition? That process could start right now and need not await the special votes. It would be the best possible use of the next three weeks. There is a very significant overlap between the policy positions of the two major parties. The key issues to be overcome are of personality and culture, not policy. Either of the alternatives facing us, given the closeness of the election result, will hand wildly disproportionate influence to fringe parties representing policy positions well outside the broad consensus of the centrist 59% of voters supporting National or Labour. Surely the scale of the challenges New Zealand faces, and the nature of the election outcome with so much consensus in the middle and divergences at the extremes, demand exploring the potential for a Grand Coalition government? There is everything to be gained and nothing to be lost during the next three weeks, while we await special votes, from the leaders of National and Labour sitting down together in good faith and exploring possibilities. They owe it to the country.
I was quoted by @BarakRavid in @axios on the growing risks of Trump's strategy toward Iran.
As I emphasized, Iran has no intention of accepting the current situation indefinitely. Washington may believe that economic strangulation will eventually force Tehran to surrender, but that is a fundamental misreading of the Iranian leadership.
The blockade is a means, not an end. Without a realistic diplomatic strategy, continued pressure is more likely to provoke Iranian escalation than capitulation.
The current status quo is simply unsustainable. The longer it continues, the greater the risk of another military confrontation that neither side necessarily wants.
https://t.co/v5EPF0SecE
Honey trap. The more we get to know about this whole Nvidia mess, the more the narrative built by the media (and various security pundits) makes less sense. What becomes clearer by the day is the viciousness of a deliberate, smearing campaign by certain cliques within the Washington establishment to go after Jensen Huang. Since they lost the argument against limited GPU export restrictions to China, they can only go against the man. And while a tech bro like Elon Musk can happily go inseminating half of white blond female America (and incidentally switch off Starlink to a strategic ally in an existential genocidal war), Jensen Huang is portrayed as your average US middle-aged idiot been duped by a Chinese “girl” (in her mid-forties), supposedly a communist spy (for which claim no one’s brought even a shard of evidence). And thus Nvidia, arguably the only true technological asset left to the US in the global competition, risks being completely destroyed by a bunch of know-it-alls. The only real honey trap is this sweet sense of retribution that has gotten a vast part of America addicted. And nothing is more telling of the current state of that country.
Jensen Huang is lying to cover a Big Secret
I think I know why Jensen Huang admitted he had an affair and was unfaithful to his wife. It was to cover a big secret - the loophole Jensen has been exploiting to keep the Nvidia business growing in China.
The secret was Nvidia has knowingly allowed Megaspeed to operate a neocloud service (Nvidia cloud partner service in Malaysia providing AI as a Service) in 2024 which provided processing service to Alibaba and other Chinese AI labs. Alibaba was financing Megaspeed's operation. As US export law prohibits latest Nvidia chips from being exported to China - it doesn't prohibit selling of neocloud services to Chinese AI lab - so that was the legal loophole that Nvidia & Megaspeed exploited. It kept Nvidia's revenue for China growing without being physically there.
Imagine if you are Oracle and you had been forced by Trump to cancel the USD 7 bil neocloud service out of Malaysia* datacenter with Tencent in late Oct 2026 because it was "unpatriotic" - what would the Oracle legal team say to the White House? "We are providing exactly the same neocloud service to Tencent like Megaspeed is providing to Alibaba for 2 years now - and you never ask them to stop as they are a Chinese company operating out of Malaysia . It is unfair!"
So the Trump had to punish Nvidia and Megaspeed for this infringement which is not illegal - so they claimed that they have info that "Alice Huang is a Chinese spy" and they knew Jensen has special relationship with Alice Huang and will look guilty, this will allow the US Commerce Dept to tighten supervision over Nvidia and all its neocloud services to Chinese AI labs out of Malaysia.
*Take note that most neoclouds are incorporated in Singapore while the datacenter is physically situated in Johor (Malaysia) about 60 km from Singapore where land, electricity ad water are abundant and cheap. So the story about Nvidia chips being sent to "empty datacenters" in Singapore is technically correct as that is the HQ of the neoclouds.
@KarenFactsLover@niubi@RnaudBertrand@AngelicaOung@kyleichan@MaxBlumenthal@baoshaoshan @thecyrusjansse @Jingjing_Li@Kathleen_Tyson_@kyleichan@kenmoriyasu@LukeGromen@NuryVittachi@philippilk@jordanschneider@Glenn_Diesen@zhao_dashuai@BodenViews@jingyanghk@annmarie@shanaka86@willripleyCNN@CollinRugg@JChengWSJ
“Heading into Election Day, the race appeared to be a steep uphill climb for Democrats. President Trump won the state by 20 points in 2024, and the state hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982. But the contest's competitiveness in the final stages of the campaign was illustrative of the broader political environment, which put seats on the map that Democrats wouldn't have dreamed of flipping at the beginning of the cycle.”
Especially in Asia, where great power competition and security balancing matter hugely, people tend to dump on the idea of "middle power" strategies to shape the strategic environment. But that blithe dismissal misunderstands much about the recent evolution of the region—and about the opportunities countries not called "the United States" or "China" have if they focus on function rather than form.
As I explain in this clip from a keynote speech to the @AsiaPacificFdn in Ottawa, Asia is changing dramatically, but the region’s two most significant powers, Washington and Beijing, are losing the plot. Because Asia’s future will not be defined by the Sinocentrism that Washington fears or by the American containment that Beijing seeks to forestall, what may prevail will be fragmentation, shifting coalitions, and a discombobulated patchwork of rules, norms, and standards. And this, in turn, actually gives Asia’s third, fourth, and fifth players the opportunity to define terms of engagement.
Too much of this "middle power" debate is an abstraction, focused on form rather than function. But once you flip that script, the opportunities for countries that don't want to be trapped in a box of American or Chinese making become more apparent.
Watch my take on this here: https://t.co/mSHyVcZvV6
The barrage of media coverage of the Jensen Huang affair over the past week seems too coordinated and produced. The media held off reporting the first affair until after the mid-term. The second affair only appears in the after-hours session.
People with experience in the media must know there is an invisible hand directing these attacks on a particular day at a particular time, aiming for Jensen's removal.
Who is directing this, and what are they aiming to gain politically?
@5amfeeds Only if they do not perform. We could conceivably get a pleasant surprise. In terms of the counterfactual, the current trends for both parties is not encouraging. One of the reasons is constantly being held hostage by the extremism and crankiness of partner parties.
@5amfeeds Only if they do not perform. We could conceivably get a pleasant surprise. In terms of the counterfactual, the current trends for both parties is not encouraging. One of the reasons is constantly being held hostage by the extremism and crankiness of partner parties.
How can Australia keep its Indo-Pacific partnerships strong through election cycles? In @ASPI_org's Strategist, @BassiJustin and I make the case for practical Quad cooperation, formalising the Squad and upgrading ties with the Philippines.
https://t.co/kTiCa6yCbS
People are right to be angry about the Hegseth vote failing. The Democratic Party has not led as an anti-war party. This is another example of that.
Iraq. Libya. Yemen. Israel. Iran.
A new generation must make us an anti-war party.