JohnCanally

Investment management exec. w/ 15+ years exp. in portfolio management, investment & economic analysis & client relations

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..for longer term investors, with PEs elevated, equity returns in next 5-7 years likely to be a lot lower than in last 9 years. And inflation is ramping up.. Stay invested, but stay vigilant.

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

S&P 500 approaching all time high set back in early 2018? Should investors chase? Probably not. S&P 500 EPS growth peaking and no need to be greedy. Balanced investors should be market-weight stocks for now.

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Kansas City Fed will release the program for the symposium at 6 PM MT on Thurs., 8/23. https://t.co/Lh6Hrm3Dqk

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Jackson Hole is a highlight for financial markets this week. FOMC wrestling with increasing bottlenecks and shortages throughout the economy pushing up inflation and deflationary impact of potential global trade slowdown. #JacksonHole

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Record low 5-to-10 yr consumer inflation expectations https://t.co/qUn1Z0TSfy (just 2.2% in March) should help keep Fed on a gradual path

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Battle of the GDP "nowcasts" for Q1 @AtlantaFed: 0.9%; @NewYorkFed : 2.8%; Huh? We explain in our recent commentary https://t.co/jLlri7QTU6

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..but press likely to ask every Fed speaker between now and then about those discussions ...

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

#Yellen's revelation that the balance sheet was discussed today put's more focus on the #FOMC minutes (April 5)...

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

#yellen presser is over.. Her presser didn't really change the overall "less hawkish than feared" view of the day

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q: supervision question..A. Relatively light regulatory agenda right now

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Yellen: We are shooting for inflation near 2%, but there will be deviations above and below.

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..we do know that workers with less skill and education may still be struggling. Consumers can feel good about the economy

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q : Waht message are you sending consumers with this hike A: that the economy is doing well & job mkt is improving...

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q: Glass Steagal question: A: no concrete proposals yet. so i have nothing to react to. Don't think repeal was cause of GFC

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..we expect policy to remain accomodative..

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q: what if we dont see better growth or lower unemp rate? A: we are not on preset path. Data is noisy Wage growth has moved up "some"

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..but even that pace of growth is enough to tighten labor market. Could be room to run on labor mkt

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q: why raise rates now with GDP weak in Q1. A: GDP is noisy indicator, growing near 2% and we expect that to continue..

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

Q: is Fed's growth outlook a point of conflict with Trump Admin?. A: no. i encourage Congress and Trump to enact pro growth policies.

[JohnCanally @JohnCanally]

..shift in sentiment is obvious and notable..