John Owning

@Cronkite_ASU alum. Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Surveyor of pass rushers. Mostly Cowboys.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

Unfortunately, I was a part of the PFF layoffs today. Really enjoyed my time there, where I met and worked with so many kind, hard-working and incredibly talented people.

Excited to see what's next. Appreciate y'all.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@Bweasey @Marcus_Mosher now let's name all the players who got as much as they could

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

I really don't understand why it matters tbh. Players can change their minds, and if he didn't, players say things to look good to the fanbase but attack negotiations differently **all the time**

[Marcus Mosher @Marcus_Mosher]

Micah can be upset about how the whole thing went down.

But he was very clear at the end of the 2024 season that he wanted to take a team-friendly deal and said so multiple times to ESPN and local beat reporters.

I understand why he changed his views on that, but it's also important to be honest about it.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@timeforjeffrey After ascending. I always thought the same but then saw Brandon say he'd pick Kelsier unless it was in war. Made me rethink it a lot. Maybe I'm underrating the mistborn powers compared to the stromlight? Idk lol

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

I dont think it's understandable to think a player should do something that they 100% wouldn't do if in their situation. Regardless of what they say publicly, players should always maximize their $$, imo. If we start getting mad at every player who lies to the media, we are going to be angry 24/7

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@LionPride8123 I think some but it'll never be his thing, which is fine given his role imo.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

Love this kind of stuff.

[Brandon Loree @Brandoniswrite]

#Cowboys legendary left tackle Tyron Smith passing down some knowledge and giving back to the team.

Here, you could see Smith going through drills with multiple players, including RT Terence Steele. SWEET.

(🎥: @SomosCowboys)

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@LionPride8123 I really like 3/4 of the starters (Hutch, Tyleik and Alim) but am worried about the DE spot opposite Hutch, at least early in Derrick Moore's career. I think the interior depth is a bit better than the edge depth. But overall a pretty good unit.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@LionPride8123 I did not! Wish I could help!

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@LionPride8123 Don't think he's going to make a ton of difference outside of depth and hustle.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@SamMonsonNFL It surpassed my expectations for sure. Had it with some rice and a couple rangoons and I was quite happy

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

you know you live in a BBQ wasteland when Panda Express' new Cantonese brisket is better than 90% of the brisket you can get at local BBQ establishments.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@FellFister13 you are 100% correct

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@SamMonsonNFL exactly. If I didn't do that, I'd never get any BBQ above mid lol

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

https://t.co/oF4UwG4ZYO

[Nick Harris @NickHarrisFWST]

The Dallas Cowboys have signed free agent WR Jaden Smith, per the league wire.

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@InHarmsWay19 the struggle is real

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

@TheCollegeWrR Very excited to see folkstyle Stanich vs Bassett. That'll be fantastic

[Brandon Thorn @BrandonThornNFL]

My take is in the True Sack and True Pressure Rate metrics I put together every year which studies/charts/grades each based on the quality of 'win' + quality of competition

TSR: https://t.co/sgO5utDbqB

TPR: https://t.co/5SuGK57mPy

[John Owning @JohnOwning]

This is a fantastic breakdown of the pressure vs. sack debate and why evaluating players based on sacks is unwise!

[Sam Monson @SamMonsonNFL]

Pressures vs sacks, let's talk about it.

I was dismissive yesterday, let's actually break it down as a valid discussion.

A sack is almost always a better play than a pressure in terms of results. A pressure CAN lead directly to a turnover, forcing an errant throw for an INT etc, so it's not always, but generally, a sack on the play is a far better result for the pass rusher than a pressure would have been.

BUT, that doesn't mean it was qualitatively a better rep from the pass rusher.

There's a wide range of quality in the pass-rush reps that can end in a sack (same thing is true for pressures). You can whoop the LT in 1.5 seconds and smoke the QB in a way that the play never stood a chance, or you could have been dominated by your blocker, but the QB tripped over as he went by you and you touch the guy down for the stat. Box score shows those two plays as the same, but obviously, they're not.

This is where the subjectivity that people hate has some power. It's subjective, placing a distinction between those 2 plays, but clearly it's directionally more correct than acting like they were the same quality of play from the rusher. That's why PFF grades have some predictive power that other stats don't have. They can capture some of that lost info.

That range in quality of rep, added to the small sample size, is largely why sacks aren't a great measure of actual pass-rushing performance.

A rusher can play 1,000 snaps over a season. The difference between a solid season and an All-Pro season is 10 sacks to 20 sacks. 10 snaps. 1% of his season. Intuitively, we know that's just a bad sample size to be leaning on.

This is why people lean on pressures so much. The guy with 10 sacks may have 80 pressures. We're upping the sample size almost by an order of magnitude, which is in turn reducing the impact of outside variables. This is why the better indicator of FUTURE sacks is pressures, not current sack totals.

But pressures are just 'almost' plays.

Sure. But those almost plays aren't necessarily an indication of any failing by the pass-rusher. I can find you dozens of pressures over a season that are qualitatively better reps from a pass rusher than some sacks.

If you whoop the LT instantly, but the QB gets the ball out quickly against a CB who got roasted off the line, you may only end up with a pressure. Hell, if you even bury the QB with a hit but he manages to blindly fling the ball out of his grasp forwards, it's an incomplete pass and your sack becomes a pressure, even if the play was wildly risky by the QB.

The point is that you don't always control the outcome of the play as a pass-rusher, certainly less than people want to ascribe when they're dismissing players with high pressure totals and lower sack numbers.

People like to think of elite pass-rushers as 'finishers', but in reality I think that's pretty rare, and a much lower factor in finishing than the other influences outside of the rusher's control.

There ARE some players who 'finish' pressures into sacks at an unusually high or low rate over a few seasons, but they're rare. Most players regress back to the mean in either direction after an outlier season.

None of the top 10 edge rushers over the last two seasons in terms of pressure to sack rate had an overall pass-rush win rate over 20%. And basically the only guy to rank very highly in both is Myles Garrett, arguably the best single football player in the game.

The bottom line? You want as much data as possible when you're evaluating edge rushers. As big a sample size as you can find.

High pressure totals are a pretty good indicator of pass rushing ability. High pressure rate has signal. PFF pass-rushing grade has power.

Combine as much as you can to build the best picture of a rusher you can get, but sacks would be a few steps down on the list of data points i'd focus on if i was trying to evaluate how good a pass-rusher was.

Sacks are the goal, not the best measure of performance.

[Zain Dhanani @DhananiZain]

Why does earned separation matter and does separating on different routes have different expectations?

TLDR:

1) Some routes are tougher to earn separation than others (varies by coverage too)

2) Earning separation has a 3.5x TPRR boost (varies by route)

3) Earning separation has a 5.5x YPRR boost (varies by route)

4) Not shown, but earned separation is 11x more likely to generate an explosive play (how you win NFL games and fantasy)

These are the top separators by route in 2025 (min 50 routes) 👇

@FantasyPtsData