John Dudding

Economic policy & analysis: business; tax; health & anything else... no longer @CentreProPolicy.

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

@carlbaker Appears to be partly NIMs database used as denominator is 'different': it gives 8.3m London adults v. 7.0m in ONS population estimates.
@BBCMoreOrLess did feature on this in Spring. But that adjustment would only take us to 78%, so maybe sample bias too?

[Growth and Reform Network @GrowthandReform]

CPP will be talking to the former Chair of @ofqual, @RTaylorOpenData about what really happened during last year's #exams fiasco and what lessons we might draw on the future of #algorithms, qualifications and fairness in #education.

Join us 👉https://t.co/z4PHoF2ZVb

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

An inspiring challenge from @DianeCoyle1859

[Growth and Reform Network @GrowthandReform]

"There is a resignation that we have to live with rubbish jobs...but I don't buy that"

.@DianeCoyle1859 sharing her vision on how we can improve productivity and working conditions across a range of jobs which our society values

#CPPJobs

https://t.co/dfAkRKBeWR

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

@thomasforth Something makes me think that if the output is presented like this, the 'algorithm' that created it wasn't too rigorous. We'll see.

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

For the geeky:
The unfairness is not just because Westminster historically chose lower council tax rates than Gateshead.
It's also because Gateshead is unitary: residents pay the precept on all their council tax (ex. fire/police). Westminsterians don't pay precept on GLA element.

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

The formulae government choose really matter:

Government chose to make the social care precept 3% of council tax. This seems fair but it's not. It means £55 in Gateshead but only £14 in Westminster (for Band D).

The social care grant then effectively subsidises low tax areas

[The MJ @themjcouk]

If the Govt wants to level-up, fostering inclusive growth and recovery across the country, making #CouncilTax fairer would be a good place to begin, argue @zoe_billingham and John Dudding @CentreProPolicy
⬇️

https://t.co/8e8aLPADbF - free to read

#localgov

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

An easy alternative, specifying the precept in £terms, would have avoided this arbitrary variation, whilst still allowing the social care grant to adjust for differences in need and tax base.

(There are bigger problems with local government finance, but not so easily solved!)

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

@jdportes @rcolvile @thomasforth @sarahoconnor_ @MichaelMarmot This may true, but if it was the sole effect, you would expect the low deprivation areas in London to have worse outcomes than other regions, but they are better.

Education shown to be important but my best guess is that unhealthy people don't move to London

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

Pleased to see no mention of property prices in the actual Green Book review.

Hopefully came from communication error not disingenuous briefing.

As for what it actually says: promising intention but needs to be implemented. https://t.co/k76NBPypxW

@SimonClarkeMP
@faisalislam

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

Very interested to see what they actually do - excluding property prices from Green Book will have little effect.

To level-up - need appraisal to actively bias towards certain places: @RishiSunak needs to be brave and put numbers behind this 1/x

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

#GreenBook review emphasizes the key message that appraisal should assess against what government wants to achieve.👍

Easier said than done.

Ministers need to be clear enough on what their objectives are for analysts to assess how well projects deliver them. #Whatislevellingup

[Growth and Reform Network @GrowthandReform]

We welcome the changes announced to the #GreenBook.

However, the Green Book does not make decisions - it is down to ministers to make the decisions that prioritise #levellingup.

https://t.co/0vDskHgGM5

#levelup #SpendingReview2020 #RishiSunak

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

@MrHarryCole "Tearing-up of the Green Book rules" is a bit strong! The changes are welcome but mainly just emphasize that government should appraise projects against what it wants to achieve. It is and always has been down to ministers to decide where investment goes. https://t.co/skmcUSKY5L

[Rosie Fogden @RosieFogden]

1/7 Last week I argued in the @themjcouk that @RishiSunak should use the #SR to set out a vision for longer term recovery investing in community services, health and skills for a more productive and resilient society.

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

See @CentreforCities @sjeffrey01
(https://t.co/RmfRnhoMeY) for argument of why there isn't bias. (But it ignores that Green Book makes subjective choice of not caring who receives benefit) 6/6

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

Very interested to see what they actually do - excluding property prices from Green Book will have little effect.

To level-up - need appraisal to actively bias towards certain places: @RishiSunak needs to be brave and put numbers behind this 1/x

[Simon Clarke @SirSimonClarke]

This is hugely important from ⁦@RishiSunak⁩. For areas like #Teesside, the rate of return on Government spending has often compared unfavourably to London and the South, but this then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of structural under-investment. https://t.co/J8n7zaEZRz

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

So the Green Book is really just a scapegoat. Levelling-up needs brave political decisions. If that's what's revealed in #SpendingReview, well done! 5/x

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

@lukasz_krebel @arindube @zoe_billingham The memory being intelligent, well-informed discussion... right?

[John Dudding @JohnRDudding]

I'm sure @EdwardJDavey supports this sensible and fair measure (physical proof of settled status for EU citizens)!