Johnson

Macro rates watcher. If the Fed moves I'm probably already posting about it. BTC, $TLT, US stocks. Views not advice

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@naiivememe 365 days of not selling builds actual diamond hands

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@MikeZaccardi @FactSet rates path still the real driver here

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

The move higher in yields since 10am ET has me focused on whether it starts to pressure breadth in rate-sensitive sectors, though that read stays tentative unless the push extends into tomorrow's session.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

"voluntary"? lol.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Only this administration would consider a diesel export ban, which would RAISE gasoline prices for Americans

Morgan Stanley: "Once a refinery is built, its mix of outputs can only be changed within limited range. .. Hence, a diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs. .. Elsewhere diesel prices would rise"

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@WatcherGuru yields twitch whenever these flags share a frame

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@AshCrypto exactly how people dismissed the internet in 1995

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

What stands out is how a diesel input shock at these levels can keep core services sticky even as other goods disinflate. US Gulf Coast crack spreads topping $100/bbl would need to roll over fast to ease that pressure on the Fed's path.

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@firstadopter breadth in apps showing up as rates ease

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

There was a GIANT $11 BILLION worth of $SPY Dark Pool prints on Friday at 662.69

We have only seen one other print with this amount of size so far this year

This is a Bullish bias point for SPY going forward

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@davesking15 supports you while you’re getting there, that’s the line. well put Dave

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@bespokeinvest 500 bps still tops the buckets but futures keep flipping weekly

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@MikeZaccardi fed july move still hitting balanced equity mixes 35 days on

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@CryptoTony__ what liquidity level actually restarts the uptrend

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

There is nothing to do now at all, but ride runner in #ES_F. Longs still working from last Wednesday's 7616 Aug3rd low Failed Breakdown. My target was ~7770 macro bull flag resistance. We broke it out, and we are off now.

7850, 7860, 7864 next. 7812 (watch traps), 7770=supports

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

The 0.43% long-run gap between core PCE and CPI keeps me focused on whether the Fed is reading inflation too hot after last week’s move. That view stays intact unless the gap narrows in coming prints.

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

Read the whole Claude post now. Fable level for most stuff and cheaper than Opus 5. Might cancel one of my subs, can't justify paying for three of these anymore

[Claude @claudeai]

Introducing Claude Opus 5.5, the first model in our new Claude 5.5 family.

It performs at the level of Claude Fable 5.1 for most tasks, and costs 40% less to run than Opus 5.

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@WatcherGuru russian traders been routing through foreign perps already

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@bespokeinvest richmond miss like 2015 factory slips, stocks shrugged then too

[Johnson @JohnsonSOL5x]

@Prosper29m solid initiative ✅