Jon Tonge

British & Irish politics professor, Univ. of Liverpool. Views mine NOT Univ’s. Retweets/likes NOT endorsements: made me think/laugh. [email protected]

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

@Cheesewright3 Yes - very. Enjoy!

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

Dexys Midnight Runners, Manchester

[Suzanne Breen @SuzyJourno]

Despite her senior colleagues downplaying the chances of Carla Lockhart leaving, she appears to be preparing to walk over Drumcree. Almost a decade ago, her party had 10 MPs. It now has half that number. And if 5 becomes 4, the DUP enters the danger zone.
https://t.co/MzUs3N3Fk5

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament

📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025

📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5

[Belfast Telegraph @BelTel]

DUP MP Carla Lockhart has quit her position as a party officer. The Upper Bann politician’s resignation could be the start of a chain of events leading to her resignation from the DUP.

✍️: @SuzyJourno

https://t.co/phaE6OW10n

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

@Josh_HW @RTPSyndicate What a horse! Bolted up. Great day out🍾

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

We've added new shadings for each party in all our maps, here you can see where our Nowcast thinks the NI parties will get their votes in May.

SF, DUP, AP, UUP

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

Delighted to launch @JohnDoyleDCU’s new book ‘Before the Vote: Planning for a United Ireland’ at the Political Studies Association of Ireland conf at University College Cork. The book is not so much an argument for unity as the need to plan for its possibility/probability #PSAI26

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

NI SOS @RhonddaBryant “I sometimes think the veneer of peace is remarkably thin”. Nonetheless, optimistic re power-sharing: “the Executive is much more resilient than some people suggest”.

[Britain Elects @BritainElects]

‼️ Labour HOLD Holborn and St Pancras

Labour: 45.0% (-3.9)
Green: 32.7% (+22.3)
Conservative: 7.0% (-0.2)
Reform: 5.9% (-0.2)
Liberal Democrats: 3.4% (-2.4)
Restore: 2.5% (+2.5)
Workers: 1.1% (+1.1)

[Sophy Ridge @SophyRidgeSky]

Pledges from Kemi Badenoch:

* Halve NICs for under 25s to help young people get work
*Half of spending cuts will go on cutting deficit
*Defence spending - including Britannia Shield
*50,000 new prison places

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 WATCH: Kemi Badenoch accuses Reform UK of debating "whether my mixed race children are English"

"I don't want to explain to my son when we're watching our brilliant English team play football that some people don't think that black players are English"

[Pippa Norris @PippaN15]

For election reform needs; how different uk electoral systems would transform party competition. https://t.co/5558XB8Efs

[PolliticsUK @PolliticsUK]

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

🌹 LAB: 29% (+2)
➡️ REF: 23% (-1)
🌳 CON: 19% (-2)
🔶️ LDEM: 9% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 9% (+2)
🟣 RSB: 2% (=)

From @Survation
From 29th September
Changes with 23rd September

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

Thanks to the eldest for their perfect birthday gift…

[LBC @LBC]

Burnham's speech was delivered by a leader who believes in himself - and more importantly, the rest of us too, writes Andrew Marr https://t.co/Pr2Oa0cnJT

[Sophy Ridge @SophyRidgeSky]

Quite struck by the lack of reference to "the Tories" or "Nigel Farage" in this conference speech by Andy Burnham

[YouGov @YouGov]

SNAP POLL / By 48% to 28%, Britons support Andy Burnham's proposal to change the triple lock in order to help fund part of a national care service

[YouGov @YouGov]

% who think each of the following should be run in the public sector

Police: 89%
Armed forces: 86%
NHS: 86%
Schools: 83%
Water companies: 82%
Railway companies: 76%
Royal Mail: 76%
Energy companies: 70%
Bus companies: 67%
Universities: 63%
BBC: 62%
Internet/phone providers: 38%
Banks: 31%
Airlines: 20%

[Jon Tonge @JonTonge]

SDLP and Sinn Féin both come and argue their case at Labour’s conference, albeit SF cancelled this year amid Drumcree. Find it slightly odd that NI’s unionist parties don’t come and put their case at the governing party’s main event.