JB

JGL Capital - Commodity Futures & Options

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Remember when we were tagging the upper boundary of the Nov Canola channel? Hello bottom end! Is this a tradeable bounce pre-harvest? And how high can we go before the crop starts coming off?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Nov Canola remains within the overall channel established since the beginning of 2026, but we've broken the most recent aggressive trend from end of June. 21-day EMA held so far but there is risk we could test closer to the 770-775 zone. Would become more worried for fund liquidation if our channel breaks.
Markets remain violently volatile.

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Non-Ag related: Is it time for the Gold bugs to have fun again? Starting to look promising noting the strength divergences and the challenge of our trendline on solid volume.
Why now and not previously? USD. Looking to embed in oversold 5-day RSI and breaking initial chart structure. If confirmed, we could see assets go for a ride.

[Q @QuintinStamler]

Canola is having an extreme week. D4 RINs as well.

Head and shoulders pattern potential - a key factor to watch here is volume. Volume typically fades as the pattern plays out.

Margin requirements on canola increasing = not a helper with volume.

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Nov Canola tagging the 50-day SMA and 5-day RSI approaching oversold territory. Possible bounce spot?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Funds bought how many Soybeans?!

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Developing cup-and-handle in the US Dollar?
Measured move theory would take us toward ~104.500-105.00 zone.
How will this affect asset pricing?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Canola first shifted trend at the beginning of 2026 after being consumed by a long 3-year bear market. Our bullish trend is still in tact but are we getting to the upper ends ahead of harvest?
No immediate signs yet, but the timeliness of this latest move is certainly interesting. (Last grasp of air for the Bears?)
Breakout incoming, or bust down pending? Let me know your thoughts in the comments 🌾🌾🌾

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Dec Spring Wheat futures approaching the highs set in May once again. Different timing and different reasons for each rally. Cash opportunities seeing $9.00/bu in some areas. Dare I say it...... is wheat profitable?!

Some good levels to start considering sales/protection. Is wheat primed to go higher? Yes. We've got a good story brewing amid Black Sea/Sea of Azov export worries. Is it prudent to think about profitable wheat levels with all the recent volatility? Double Yes.

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Canola = 🚀🚀🚀

Signs on longer term charting shows the next stop could be the 840-880 zone. Are we going to get there ahead of harvest?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Crude Oil gap #2 now filled and looks ready to test the 50-day SMA at the bare minimum. Fresh bullish momentum has hit the tape....just need to creep back above the 50-day to reach max bull territory. With the US/Iran looking to reignite instead of fizzle out, could we see $90+ again???

[JGL @JGL_Ag]

Fastest COT report - anywhere. Enjoy. Funds BIG buyers in canola, oil, meal and wheat.

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Trouble in paradise?
S&P500 close to completing a diamond top.... these patterns typically do not regain higher highs without a capitulation event to the downside. Bears in control, or opportunity to trap shorts for the bulls? 🐻🐂

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Sept KC Wheat is up over 40 cents as premium enters the market amid worries about exports within the Black Sea & the Sea of Azov.
We've had one other opportunity to look at some new crop Dec Spring Wheat protection. Is this our next opportunity ahead of harvest?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

August Live Cattle find support @ 200-day SMA today, and signaling near-term oversold conditions. Will it hold?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Amazing what one single post from Trump does to interest rate probabilities ahead of the next FOMC decision in 2 weeks. Coin flip for a rate hike to more certain confirmation of holding rates as is.
Will it change tomorrow? Most likely..... 😵‍💫

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Crude Oil breaks first key resistance @ 21-day EMA after finding support last week @ 200-day SMA.
Continuation gap has been filled on the downside...next stop $80+?

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Feeder Cattle futures found support @ continuation 200-day SMA off the August contract. One more go at the highs? Seasonals friendly into end of July/beg of August, but near-term demand weighing on momentum.

[JB @JonnyBell_]

Crude Oil futures regain 200-day SMA after Hormuz tensions pick up.

How high do we bounce from major support?