Jordan Anderson

Political risk analyst – Africa’s Great Lakes & Horn (esp. DRC & Ethiopia). On pourrait dire que je suis demi-congolais? Views my own, RT ≠ endorsement.

[Jordan Anderson @JordTAnderson]

During 2020, I want to read a piece of literature from each of the 55 African Union countries. Twitter, hit me with your (fiction) book & author recommendations! #AfricanLiterature

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

News: #Ethiopia's Abiy could consolidate power as 'executive president'

Addis Abeba — Ethiopia’s Prime Minister #Abiy_Ahmed could consolidate power under a proposed new presidential system that would merge the offices of prime minister and the largely ceremonial presidency into an “executive presidency,” AFP reported.

The proposal emerged from a weeks-long national dialogue that concluded on 22 August, with around 4,000 delegates overwhelmingly backing constitutional changes. The recommendations could be presented to parliament when it reconvenes in October.

Abiy, who has governed Ethiopia since 2018, was absent from the dialogue. However, critics and analysts cited by AFP said he would be the likely beneficiary of the proposed system, given that the president would be selected by a parliament dominated by his #Prosperity_Party following its landslide victory in June elections.

Supporters argue that an executive presidency would provide a more unifying national leadership structure, with the president representing all ethnic groups rather than being elected as a member of parliament from a specific region.

The dialogue also recommended reducing state funding for ethnic-based political parties and promoting parties with a broader national orientation.

Critics, however, warned that the proposed changes could concentrate political power in Abiy’s hands. Political analyst Befekadu Hailu told AFP that the proposal could allow the prime minister to assume the executive presidency while “effectively concentrating power in a single individual.”

The recommendations come as Ethiopia continues to face armed conflicts in #Oromia and #Amhara regions, while concerns persist over a possible resurgence of conflict in #Tigray following the 2020–2022 war.

Opposition groups and armed organisations were excluded from the dialogue, while several major opposition parties boycotted the process. Critics said the dialogue therefore failed to adequately address the country’s need for durable peace and democratic governance. Participants nonetheless described the process as a rare opportunity for debate over Ethiopia’s political future.

[Kjetil Tronvoll @KjetilTronvoll]

New armed confrontations between #Ethiopia ENDF and #Tigray forces reportedly broke out last night.

The reported attack in Western Tigray (close to Shererina) represents a clear military escalation and the most serious confrontation in northern Ethiopia for some time. 1/7

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

News: #US inches closer to lifting #Eritrea sanctions, sending signal to #Ethiopia: new report

Despite the apparent policy shift, criticism has emerged over the prospect of normalizing ties with one of the world’s most closed political systems.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) called on the US to “not consider lifting sanctions until Eritrea has taken major steps toward accountability for violations and demonstrated a clear break from abusive past and present practices.”

However, responding to the latest news, Eritrea expressed its earnest “hope that this act will indeed herald an enduring rectification of misguided policies to ensure justice, legality and fairness.”

https://t.co/UgBEcCgnSJ

[Emmet Livingstone @L4ingstone]

Lots from Tshisekedi’s first press conference in 2 years:

— Says he was misled about the army’s weakness before the fall of Goma.

— Diplomacy + US support now pivotal.

— Not opposed to constitutional change and a third term “if the people want it.

[Emmet Livingstone @L4ingstone]

“Kabila has returned to the DRC with the intent to destabilize the DRC government through his support to M23 and AFC.”
https://t.co/vTosBR8Wzl

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

News: #US weighs sanctions relief, diplomatic reset with #Eritrea: WSJ

Citing current and former officials, the report said the initiative, still under review, aims to reopen high-level diplomatic channels with the long-isolated state, which controls more than 1,120 kms of #Red_Sea coastline.

U.S. officials believe Eritrea’s geographic position could prove pivotal in safeguarding alternative maritime routes critical for global trade and military transit, the WSJ report noted.

https://t.co/0QCM6Pgb3O

[Christophe RIGAUD @afrikarabia]

#RDC #Dédollarisation de l’économie : à partir du 9 avril 2027, « aucune personne, physique ou morale, ne sera plus autorisée à effectuer des transactions en espèces en monnaies étrangères. Toute transaction en espèces, en monnaies étrangères, ne pourra se faire que par voie scripturale. »

[Daniel Michombero /Batubenga @michombero]

#RDC 🇨🇩: la LUCHA dénonce la tentative présumée de modification de la Constitution pour prolonger le pouvoir et appelle les autorités à se concentrer plutôt sur les urgences nationales, notamment la crise sécuritaire dans l’Est de la RDC et la protection de la démocratie.

[Christophe RIGAUD @afrikarabia]

🔴#RDC Un groupe armé nommé « Mouvement Debout #Katanga pour la libération du #Congo » #MDKC revendique avoir pris le contrôle de #Lusinga en territoire de #Mittwaba mardi 3 mars sans faire référence à la mort de 5 agents du parc de l’ICCN. Les autorités congolaises indiquent pourtant qu’un calme précaire était revenu dans la zone. L’armée congolaise y effectue des opérations de ratissage selon Radio Okapi. Le #MDKC affirme se battre contre la mauvaise gouvernance de Kinshasa.

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

The regaining and liberation of Bara by the SAF is another significant tactical victory in the steady drumbeat of strategic gain by the army over the last 3 months. With RSF stressed to the breaking point and UAE now distracted by having to manage Iranian threats, all these gains are feeling much less reversible than before; especially Bara, which has traded hands multiple times in the past 3 years. The question in my mind is when or whether the US and other international actors will begin to modulate their tone and approach to the army in a way that recognizes these gains.

[Christophe RIGAUD @afrikarabia]

🔴#RDC #Kisangani Le gouvernorat de la #Tshopo confirme l’interception de 4 #drones sur l’aéroport de #Bangoka : « le premier à 15h48, le deuxième à 17h30, le troisième à 19h30 et le dernier à 19h48, alors qu'un appareil civil de la Compagnie Africaine d'Aviation (CAA) amorçait déjà son atterrissage ».

[Kristof Titeca @KristofTiteca]

My latest, for the Conversation, in which I explain as to why Kony & the LRA have managed to survive for all this time. Based on my academic article for African Affairs, which can be found here: https://t.co/aPEQE0LY3h

[Christophe RIGAUD @afrikarabia]

🔴#RDC Ce sont au total 4 #drones qui ont été interceptés ce dimanche à l’#aéroport de #Kisangani.

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

News: #Tigray Interim Administration dismisses claims of #ENDF deployment, relocation to Northern Command camps

The Tigray Interim Administration has dismissed as “completely false” reports circulating in recent days alleging that the federal government ordered the #Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to enter Tigray and that the regional administration had agreed to the relocation of federal troops to former Northern Command camps.

In a brief statement issued today, the Interim Administration described the claims as “misinformation and disinformation” intended to mislead the public and create unnecessary tension.

“There are rumors in recent days that the federal government has ordered the Ethiopian Defense Forces to enter Tigray, and the Tigray Interim Administration has agreed for the forces to settle in the former camps of #Northern Command,” the statement said.

“The source and the goal of this strategy of spreading such misinformation and disinformation in society are clear, but the information being spread is completely false.”

These developments come against a backdrop of fresh indications of troop concentrations towards the Tigray Region. Agence France-Presse (AFP) cited a Western diplomatic source reporting that ENDF units and Tigrayan forces were massing along the border of the Tigray Region, raising fears of renewed confrontation.

Read more: https://t.co/aycc2PLkwd

[Bashir Hashi Yussuf @BashirHashiysf]

BREAKING NEWS:
#Ethiopian ENDF troops are in final preparations to attack Mekelle the capital
of #Tigray,

Mekelle, is rapidly becoming a fear of a new war, according to local sources.

Residents of Mekelle are slowly moving out of the city, traveling to Addis Ababa and other safer places.

Residents say, the cost of plane tickets and buses are expensive

A witness said that traffic to Addis Ababa is very busy, with some people passing through Semera to catch a plane from there.

Buses are scarce and tickets are not easily available. Even high school and university students are reported to have stopped studying.

A journalist in Tigray said that there are large-scale military preparations and mobilizations on both sides, with reports of conscription

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

News: Risk of renewed conflict mounts as troop movements reported near #Eritrea– #Tigray border—Bloomberg

Addis Abeba—Ethiopia and Eritrea are deploying troops and military equipment near the northern Tigray region, raising the risk of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa, Bloomberg reported, citing regional diplomats.

Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Ethiopian troops and equipment have been moved northward, including through Bahir Dar, while Eritrean forces have also deployed to areas inside Tigray.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed this week reiterated Ethiopia’s longstanding ambition to secure access to the Red Sea, describing maritime access as key to overcoming logistical constraints on economic growth. Eritrea dismissed what it characterized as threats of war. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel told Bloomberg that claims justifying conflict to obtain “sovereign access to the sea” lack international support.

Eritrean state television also broadcast a naval parade in Massawa last week, marking the anniversary of the city’s capture in 1990.

https://t.co/7ypsPwQxjd

[Sudan Tribune @SudanTribune_EN]

The RSF and SPLM-N seized the strategic town of Deim Mansour in Sudan's Blue Nile region on Tuesday. A Sudanese official accused Ethiopia of facilitating the cross-border assault and alleged that drones were launched from UAE-overseen bases in the Benishangul-Gumuz region.
https://t.co/P0yPQixuHv

[Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe]

The Democratic Republic of Congo will shortly share a list of minerals projects with the US for possible development by American investors https://t.co/x4HYlG3zl2

[Rashid Abdi @RAbdiAnalyst]

Reports emerging Djibouti this week attacked Afar rebel targets in Ethiopia (in Elidar, Afar Regional State) using Turkish-supplied Bayraktar TB2 drones.

Not for the first time.

But the timing of this particular attack is significant. It came in the same week PM Abiy was visiting Djibouti in a bid to repair frayed relations. (Djibouti is convinced Addis will offer Somaliland recognition and shift business to the port of Berbera)

The first aim of the attack is to torpedo Ethiopian diplomacy's attempts to improve relations.

Second, Djibouti wants to show the world the feared secessionist pandora's box has been opened by Somaliland and Israel.

Emboldened by the new Saudi-led anti-UAE axis made up of Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Pakistan, Djibouti wants to demonstrate it is battling Afar 'secessionists' and 'irredentists.'

Third, Djibouti wants to delegitimise Afar discontent and political aspirations and attract external Arab, Muslim support to crush Afar resistance.

This is partially aimed at smoothing the path for Ismael Omar Guelleh to claim another victory at the polls and rule for life.

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

#Israel announces official recognition of #Somaliland as independent state

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that Israel has officially recognized the Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, marking a significant diplomatic development in the Horn of Africa.

In a statement released on Thursday, Netanyahu said the recognition was formalized through a “joint and mutual declaration” signed together with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. He described the declaration as being “in the spirit of the Abraham Accords,” which were signed under the initiative of US President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu said he congratulated President Abdirahman on what he described as a “historic declaration,” praising his leadership and commitment to promoting stability and peace. The Israeli prime minister also extended an invitation to the Somaliland president to pay an official visit to Israel.

According to Netanyahu, President Abdirahman welcomed the move and expressed appreciation for Israel’s role in counterterrorism efforts and advancing regional peace.

The Israeli prime minister further acknowledged the role of Foreign Minister Sa’ar, Mossad Director David Barnea, and Israel’s intelligence services in facilitating the recognition.

Netanyahu said Israel plans to “immediately expand” relations with Somaliland through broad cooperation in agriculture, health, technology, and the economy.