Jørd

20 | Trading capital markets. Spot | Leverage | Options | Futures | Crypto. A few years of experience. NFA — I call it how I see it.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

bitcoin:native
We had an extremely clear rejection at the 0.5 level of the weekly FVG I laid out. From an EWT perspective alone, the chart looks like it wants to make a new low (somewhere in the $50K-$55K range). Do we have to make a new low? No, but it is a likely possibility.

Bottom line, you can try to time the bottom exactly, or you can start DCA'ing into projects you believe in (I'd stick with bitcoin:native , ethereum:native , and solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112). We are back in what I'd consider deep value territory and starting to slowly DCA here is probably a smart move (long-term). The timeline is going to get real bad soon "Crypto is over", "All altcoins are dead", "Crypto is all going to $0", "Quantum will kill crypto". Don't let the timeline shake you out of your positions because once everyone has lost all hope, that's exactly when we will bottom out and start the journey back to new highs.
https://t.co/ZR24SjNac4

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

Regardless of whether the macro bottom is in or not, this is looking very bullish. Funding has been net negative since the start of February. As we know, price usually moves against the crowd, and the herd is overwhelmingly short right now. When discussing where max pain is in terms of leverage, funding clearly shows max pain is up from here. Not to mention, we have OBV breaking out, as well as a clean break of our diagonal resistance.

However, we are approaching a major unfilled weekly FVG between $79.5K and $86K, with the 0.5 level at $82.7K. As much as I'd like to be full bull here, a rejection anywhere inside this weekly FVG is more than likely. Considering how negative funding has been recently, I can easily see that fueling a massive short squeeze, possibly filling the entire weekly FVG before reversing.

That being said, if we manage to close the weekly above $78K, it means we close above MBBW1, which should act as a trigger toward UBBW1 ($96.7K). You guys know my main idea. We have already been in deep value territory for months now. I have a strict bottom forming around $58K, so even if we get another leg down, downside seems quite limited IMO.

What I'd be looking for if you weren't accumulating near the lows:

1. Firstly, avoid leverage altogether. Given economic and geopolitical uncertainty, these moves will be fast and aggressive. You could have the right idea but get stopped out before it materializes.

2. Watch for the weekly close. If above $78K, we have a chance to invalidate the weekly FVG backtest (downward continuation). If below $78K, look to possibly de-risk spot positions as a swing trade (I will keep holding regardless).

3. Over the next 2 weeks, this FVG will be tested. If we start closing daily candles (and more importantly, a weekly) above $86K, I'd say the probability that we bottomed at $60K is 99.9%. A sharp reversal from the $82K - $86K level (failure to close dailies and the weekly above $86K) likely means more chop and a return to the lows.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@CastilloTrading When’s the expiration on these calls?

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@SylentTrade Buying here?

[SolanaFloor @SolanaFloor]

BREAKING BIG: @Solana’s double disinflation proposal has passed after Yes votes climbed above the 66.67% threshold in the final hour of voting.

The proposal will double disinflation to 30%, reducing projected $SOL issuance by 18.9M SOL ($1.47B) over six years.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@SolanaFloor @solana It’s up to 67% now 🫡

[Tokens on Solana @tokens]

HUGE: @Solana now executes larger tokenized stock trades at a better price than US exchanges, in regular hours and outside them.

Wall Street built its execution edge over 200 years.
Solana matched it in seven weeks.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds I added to CIFR here. Thanks cheap shares Mr. market🫡

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

I gave you guys the playbook for $Silver back in February. My base case is playing out to near perfection. While we haven’t broken out of the descending wedge price has been correcting in for the last few months, I do believe the bottom is now in. I gave this update in June: https://t.co/aCoDQv65hd stating that I believe $53-$58 will be a strong buy zone. We hit a low of $54.7 and are now trading back above $66.

I’ve mentioned a few times before that I put a lot of faith in TA and often believe the chart moves first, and news comes second. This is a great example of this. SILVER and GOLD are both extremely sensitive to the strength/weakness of the dollar and interest rates. Weaker dollar (rate cuts) make alternative assets/currencies more attractive and vice versa. Back in February when I originally posted my base case, did I know that this war would continue this long, Oil would rise over $100, inflation would spike, and there would be major fears of rate hikes? NO! But the chart showed me that something like that could be expected. On the flip side, over the last few weeks, and the most recent fed meeting (the most uncertain meeting we’ve had in an extremely long time), I believed it would be highly unrealistic to see a rate hike, expected inflation to slightly cool and the fed to flip from hawkish to slightly dovish. “Coincidentally” Silver was in my exact buy range during all of this. While I understand TA is far from perfect, and fundamentals are absolutely required in markets, adding TA as additional confirmation is an extremely helpful tool that I recommend everyone spending even just a bit of time on.

To sum this up, I believe the bottom is in on both $silver and $gold and should continue to rise over the coming months, possibly even years.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

$SILVER
Exactly one week ago, silver lost the 50D SMA for the second time since April 2025. The first breakdown was quickly reclaimed. This time, price has repeatedly tested the 50D SMA and been rejected. Until proven otherwise, the 50D SMA has flipped into short–medium term resistance (currently ~$80.6).

It’s also hard to ignore the potential H&S structure developing on the daily chart. The textbook measured move projects into the $30s. While I view a full extension into that zone as a tail-risk outcome rather than a likely path, it highlights the importance of current support levels.

$73 is the key pivot.
If $73 fails, the probability of a full retest of the prior ATH zone around $50 increases materially. If $50 cannot hold, then the H&S measured move into the $30s becomes a much more realistic outcome.
That said, this is not my base case. This is my bear case.

From a macro perspective, continued monetary easing over the next 12–24 months, ongoing currency debasement, rising physical demand for silver (AI, solar, electrification), and elevated geopolitical uncertainty make a sustained deep bear market in metals structurally difficult to justify. However, price can still correct materially even within strong long-term macro trends.

Base Case:
My base case is that the 50D SMA continues to act as resistance in the short–medium term, price loses $73, and silver trends down toward the prior ATH region around $50. This zone has strong confluence:
• Prior ATH
• 50W SMA (~$48)
• 200D SMA (~$51)

This area represents my highest-probability structural bottoming zone. I would expect an extended period of consolidation/chop to follow. Assuming a bottom near $50, the 0.786 fib retracement from the $121 high projects to ~$106. A sustained reclaim of ~$106 would signal readiness for the next structural leg higher toward ~$150 (macro 3.618). This process could take months or longer, though current market conditions leave room for faster-than-expected resolution.

Bull Case:
$73 holds as support and the bottom is already in near ~$64. In this scenario, price must first reclaim the 50D SMA (~$80), then flip the $87–$88 resistance zone into support. A reclaim of the 0.786 fib (~$109) would open the path toward the ~$150 macro extension.

Bottom Line:
Daily structure is gradually turning bearish, while weekly and monthly charts suggest buyer exhaustion and a temporary cooldown rather than a full macro trend reversal. The speed of the prior move left large structural inefficiencies below price, increasing downside risk if $73 and $50 fail to hold as support.

3 Scenarios:
Bear Case: $30s -> Long consolidation -> re-assess
Base Case: $50 bottom → consolidation → $106 → $150
Bull Case: $64 holds → $88 → $109 → $150

Note: I’m not in any silver positions right now. I’m not trying to predict the future, just laying out potential outcomes, defining key levels, and staying prepared to align price action with evolving macro conditions when those levels are reached.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds I thought their earnings call was fire 🔥

Buy at open?

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds $TE is looking cheap here, thinking about buying for a swing trade

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds @bitcoinbutcher1 @TeraWulfInc Wish I could have tuned in live, I’m sure it was a great chat. I’ll let you know what my thoughts on it tomorrow.

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds @bitcoinbutcher1 @TeraWulfInc Looking forward to listening tomorrow 🫡

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@Agrippa_Inv @IREN_Ltd I see, appreciate the insight 🫡

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds Are you treating this as a swing or a longer term hold?

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@Agrippa_Inv @IREN_Ltd Didn’t they raise their ARR targets after the NVDA deal?

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds Nothing is shut down, health risk was at 11 this morning and completely orange 😂

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds It’s crazy here in Toronto

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@KillaXBT Care to explain a bit?

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

$SILVER
I meant to give an update about a week ago but completely forgot. I not longer believe $73 is support (I mean we are trading at $68 😂). I believe my base case on silver (As laid out a few months ago) will more less fully play out (took longer than I originally expected). Im not sure we still need a complete retest of $50, and believe anywhere in the $53-$58 range will be strong long-term buys.
https://t.co/rsCE7QmcMO

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@accounting_ds Great video @accounting_ds 🙌

Couldn’t agree with you more 🫡

[Jørd @JordanRube32165]

@lourenco_vs @kingcobratrader I agree a bottom is extremely close to being in but you anticipate a high of roughly 150k by 2030?