Jordan Schwartz

Data Science @VoteHub - Harvard '27 - Elections, Polling, and the Youth Vote

[Ryan McComb @ryanjmccomb]

"On Point Polling," which just released a South Carolina poll, is run by the team behind The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI). VoteHub stopped including TPSI in June, citing AI-generated respondents, and FiftyPlusOne dropped it in August after they moved Collins respondents to Fishback.

Its new toplines assign undecided voters a candidate based on how similar respondents answered. That's unusual for a topline, and seems to replace "pushing" undecideds, the much more conventional method.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

NEW — Inside Elections shifts 19 House races toward Democrats, including WYOMING AT-LARGE from Solid R to Likely R.

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

@VoteHub Iowa, 2nd closest Kansas

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

NEWS — VoteHub is going live on Election Night!

We’re partnering with CBS News to power “The Nerd Show,” bringing our precinct results, maps, and models to a national audience.

And of course, we’ll still be posting maps and analysis here nonstop, with live results on our site.

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

@gelliottmorris @admcrlsn We might have some analysis on this coming out soon…

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

RACE RATING CHANGE: Texas Senate

Tilt D → Lean D

James Talarico currently has an 65% chance of winning. Our model puts his projected margin at 2.4 points, smaller than an average polling error.

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

@BruneElections Two McCann internals from GBAO: the June one had McCann up 3 and the one from a few days ago had him up 1. No independent public polling.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🌕 Dark mode is now live all across VoteHub!

A small quality-of-life improvement for anyone still staring at elections at 1 a.m.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

We’re excited to partner with @L2political on our 2026 Early Vote Tracker. Together, we hope to make detailed election data and clear, nonpartisan analysis more accessible to the public.

I’m looking forward to seeing the tracker fill in as ballots come in over the next month!

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🚨 LAUNCH — VoteHub’s 2026 Early Vote Tracker is LIVE.

Track ballot returns and, for the first time, see who we think is actually AHEAD right now, plus what the trailing candidate needs on Election Day to catch up.

Rolling out for every battleground Senate and governor race.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

A large Hispanic swing back to Democrats could push Democrats way over a majority.

Post-redistricting, 7 of the 30 seats Trump won by ten points or less in 2024 are over 20% Hispanic. Three are rated competitive by VoteHub’s forecast and Democrats are favored in six.

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

A tale of two Alaskas today with a Fabrizio/Impact AARP poll finding Peltola up 6, while Co/efficient has Sullivan up 3.

Under the hood, it’s two different electorates:
- 31% vs 44% age 65+
- 74% vs 85% White
- 39% vs 32% College Grads

Which electorate will show up Nov. 3?

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

First long form article from @juanfwulff and it’s a great one! Take a look for rigorous analysis and a bunch of fantastic charts!

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

NEW from @VoteHub: Hispanic voters have more power to shape U.S. House control than any other major demographic group in 2026. VoteHub Fellow @juanfwulff breaks down why.
https://t.co/gDGmUx68c7

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

📣 BIG NEWS — VoteHub is officially teaming up with CBS News for 2026 midterms coverage.

Through our partnership with the @CBSNews Data Desk, our election data, analysis, and maps will be incorporated across CBS’s platforms, including on election night this November.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

RACE RATING CHANGE: IA-02

🔴 Tilt R → 🟡 Tossup

Our model projects a 1 point race this November between Joe Mitchell (R) and Lindsay James (D). Trump won IA-02 by 10 points in 2024.

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

@ElliscbIV @ryanjmccomb @NorthwesternU With a touch of modern history

[Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz]

@ryanjmccomb @ElliscbIV @NorthwesternU Idolizing either Michigan or Northwestern football shouldn’t be tolerated if we want to keep our reputation as serious analysts or statisticians.

Go Buckeyes btw

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Democrats’ path to a Senate majority runs through states Trump won by double digits. In our debut segment on CBS News’ “The Takeout,” @ZacharyDonnini explains why Democrats may need a substantial turnout advantage to break through in at least two of them.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🚨 FORECAST FLIP — Democrats are now favored to take back the Senate.

It’s the first Democratic lead in our Senate forecast since it launched in May. Across individual contests, Democrats hold the edge in enough races for a 52-seat majority; overall control remains a tossup.