Joseph Oo

Part-Time Cross Barrel Oil Trader, Full-time Dad, House Husband in training, Slaves to my offspring.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

3-2-1 crack spread is now $70.32/bbl, highest in history.

[Oil Bandit 🛢️ @OilCfd]

don't bank on China:
Forties: Unipec offered an August 5-7 cargo at dated minus 50 cents, while Phillips 66 offered a July 28-30 cargo at dated minus $1.40.

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@oil_pulse Should be the Japanese or koreans

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@HFI_Research Maybe thats the press release for the boss eyes only. So his PR team can pick it up.

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@HFI_Research Shit market to be honest. Even small position tears VAR like a bitch. whoever have the deepest VAR always ends up a winner...

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

Asian gasoil cracks exploding this afternoon. led by both ipe cracks and e/w, the relentless bid on screen and OTC. With higher risk of Russia extending the diesel ban and NWE and MEDS shortage, the curve is inevitably drag up by the front E/W boxes. If flows from US to Europe stops on the diesel side, its gonna be ugly for the MTM shorts.

My bet is that it will move higher as brent structure wash out all the shorts previously.

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@OilCfd maybe I really am under estimating the outage here...

[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

➡️ Alongside Tatneft’s 340kbd TANECO and Gazprom Neft’s 250kbd Moscow plant - both of which have gone offline since early June - Lukoil Le’s 350kbd Norsi is one of the major refineries in Central Russia.
➡️ In other words, this event only further complicates a difficult fuel supply situation for the broader area.
➡️ The Moscow plant is reportedly down for at least 6 months. We haven’t seen any estimates as to when TANECO might come back on-line. Restarts are generally not publicized.
#oott #Russia

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

To be frank the gasoline import from India into Russia shouldn't be that strong. what is puzzling is the aggressive bidding on the front month including Aug cracks. Perhaps I'm really under estimating the sudden import surge.

Chinese export remains to be seen but if they do comes out to sell cargoes, I would expect a massive move downwards which this much length on the bid. They recently remove the "Most favored nation" list so means they could now sell to anyone in July.

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

Front Asian gasoline and gasoil cracks are roofing today... physical is extremely weak with prem collapsing, What am I missing?

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

Play of the day.. gasoline cracks. Be it 92 cracks, ebob or rbob cracks. Pick your poison. What a wild time to be alive. Just when I though peak summer demand is nearing it's end...

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: Brent Dated-to-Frontline spread, a key indicator of the strength (or weakness) of the physical crude market in the Atlantic. The DFL is at its weakest since mid-2023.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Saudi Aramco Reopens Ras Tanura Oil Loading Operations After Prolonged Halt: Shipping Data

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

*EXCLUSIVE: IRAQ WILL BE COMPELLED TO CONSIDER ALL AVAILIBLE OPTIONS IF IT'S OPEC QUOTA IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. IRAQ IS ENDURING A CRITICAL FINANCIAL CRISIS TRIGGERED BY THE SHARP DECLINE IN OIL EXPORTS DUE TO THE IRAN WAR, ITS OPEC QUOTA INCREASE SHOULD BE TREATED WITH UTMOST SERIOUSNESS. IRAQ OFFICIALS HAVE CONSIDERED LEAVING OPEC, ALTHOUGH CURRENT PLAN IS TO REMAIN MEMBER AND GAIN HIGHER QUOTA - SENIOR OIL OFFICIAL RTRS

As expected, the beginning of the end of OPEC...

#OOTT

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Brent futures curve in USD/bbl (today, one week ago and one month ago) #OOTT

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@HFI_Research Winter is coming....

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

Flatprice under pressured still, London Dated window saw midland traded above the curve but ultimately its forties that set the prints. DFL also went negative for Jul26.

All offers and no bids in window but when offers comes low enough, Buyers comes in to lift the cargoes as evident in yesterday window. CFD also showing all Physical sellers so I'm guessing would need to wait for strength to come in before doing anything. The excess length would have to clear in the front for prices to bounce...

#oott

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@IliaBouchouev @grok Wats the prem on this option pricing

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

Chinese margin still negative tho it did improve slightly with this lower fp. Maybe we will see it in positive territory next week...

#oott
#china
#refining

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

@Rory_Johnston Margin is dismayed in the Chinese market. As long as the export ban remains in place, they just can't due to econs. So prem have to drop further for them to take. That also means Iranians have an incentive to discount their crude further in this market.

[Joseph Oo @Joseph_Oo]

So what's next we ask as the longs got wash out. Maybe we were too early, maybe we were wrong but either way, the spr situation in the US was a factor for Trump accepting the mou in it's current form.

The key at this moment is Iran's crude premium. The major Chinese teapot buyers are losing so much per bbl they refined, and it doesn't help that Chinese govt further reduce domestic product price cap by 5 to 7 percent for gasoil and gasoline. So for the teapots to take bearing in mind that they can't export any products(they can't export in normal times anyway legally), the Iranians crude prem will have to be in deep discount to drive take-up rate. If I was the Iranians, I would sell as much as possible or in this 60days. That leaves a final question. With the Chinese product export ban and deep discount in Iranians crude expected, the Dubai spds and structure will also have to be pressured. The soaring freight demurrage also means a deeper contango structure is needed for storage econs to work.

Welcome any comments if there is.