Oil Pulse

A physical oil traders news and views. all views are my own follow at your own risk!

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@ekwufinance Axios happened

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

🇺🇲🇮🇷President Trump Considers Massive Offensive in Iran – Axios
President Trump received several recommendations for new military plans on Tuesday, which include a massive offensive in Iran that would be wider than the current strikes in the region, per Axios.

• The article states the options include bombing Iranian infrastructure such as power plants, conducting more attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to buy their enriched uranium deeper, and bombing the Pockaxe Mountain underground site.

• Axios states President Trump hasn’t made a final decisions yet, but appears willing to escalate to cause enough damage for the Iranians to open the Strait and meet US demands.

• Israeli officials told Axios the US wants to send several dozen additional refueling plans to airports in Israel to get the number back to the same level as the start of the war.

#oil #oott

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

Axios on the headlines

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

I’m by no means an equities analyst, but I am wondering why a handful of refiners in own in my own PA aren’t skyrocketing on margins at the moment!

Maybe only earnings season will tell…

Gas oil crack over $60/bbl and holding😵‍💫

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

⛽️Refining margins are up another 2% today, on top of an already record breaking run.

Crude can fall.

It has fallen, at times, this year.

But the fuel you actually buy is priced off the margin, not just the barrel.

That gap is why pump prices are not moving the way headline crude prices suggest they should.

https://t.co/FnWkWuivTS

source:@ekwufinance

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@OilCfd Vs Trucked over

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@tleilax___ 😭

[Ali @MerruX]

Contrary to some posts Fujairah terminal in the UAE is still exporting Crude at near full capacity. The Number of vessels just waiting to here has increased significantly as Iran has limited the Strait of Homruz

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@Joseph_Oo Both ✌🏻

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

Heard a decent amount of Asian buying US crudes.

#oil #oott

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@JuneGoh_Sparta Trouble is Mo’gas Mo’Problems

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Strait of Hormuz risks deepen despite slight rise in crossings

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on 14 July, with 21 confirmed crossings recorded, according to #MarineTraffic data. Commercial traffic accounted for most movements, including vessels carrying crude oil, LPG, methanol and iron ore.

The security outlook, however, deteriorated further after three additional attacks off Oman were verified, bringing the reported total to 56 confirmed incidents and 17 seafarer fatalities. No vessels used the Omani route, while traffic continued to favour Iranian-approved routing, highlighting declining confidence in the alternative corridor. The Strait remains passable, but renewed security threats and reports that the US may consider a 20% cargo transit toll are adding further legal and geopolitical uncertainty for operators.

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@acemoney21 Magnesium Glycinate before bed.
3L water/day min.
Eat decent amount of carbs (potato/rice) before bed.
Don’t stretch it.

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

You heard it here yesterday! Oil pulse now faster than WSJ!

https://t.co/qSZHpgGhde

#oil #oott

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Iran appears to be trying to shut down a lifeline of the global oil market -- the "shuttle" tankers that are running from Persian Gulf terminals (mostly UAE ports) to the Gulf of Oman where they rendezvous with other tankers in ship-to-ship operations.

https://t.co/5PzFVOFmt2

[Rob Moore @robprogressive]

It’s shocking what’s happened to London Property since peak

Mayfair down 57%
Kensington down 54%
Westminster  down 24%
Belgravia down 18%

Prime central Londond prices have rewound 13 years back to 2013 prices!

If this is not the best opportunity to buy central London property then I don’t know what is

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

Strange old day.

You could be nailed on correct in the morning and the best trader in the world, and by the afternoon all offside and staring at your stop loss 😂🫪🛢️📉📈

#oil

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

Voice of reason.

I said it before and I’ll say it again: If you believe in the glut or not, it seems to be just the time horizon in which you are in the market for.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

People are now like “but what about the oil mini-glut?! 😏”

But important to stress that there was in fact a mini-glut as Hormuz exits surged and Asian (*cough* China) import demand remained weak—it was just temporary and comparatively small, hence the “mini”.

Wouldn’t have seen prompt, contango if there wasn’t at least a brief oversupply of spot-available crude.

Even if the drive lower was mainly paper pressure, a tighter physical market would have provided a more reliable floor before we got there.

Mini-glut now appears to be passed at lease for now, moving back to scarcity signals.

But you’re doing yourself a disservice if you only believe timespreads when they agree with your prior.

(Prompt Brent futures timespread in white, Brent Dated to Frontline—DFL—spread in blue)

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

@Rory_Johnston I dare you to look at Dubai M1-M3

[Oil Pulse @oil_pulse]

Need a bit of time to digest today’s market, because right now I really can’t pick the trade!

In a weeks time this looks like much more likely to be a TACO instead of continued aggressive statements.

But on the other hand, can you really show conviction and back the arguments to be short?

most value long: Brent FP/ Dubai Spreads / Options

most value short: Murban/dubai spread / GO-Cracks

Pick your trade!

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

It’s obvious that Trump has totally lost control of the Iran war which is now following its own dynamic. Going into mid-terms, the cost to Reps will be prohibitive through gasoline prices. Iran has less to lose as they have been preparing for this survival economy for a while.