Joshua Packwood

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Brent crude has fully round tripped from beginning of Iran War.

$72 (Feb 28) ↗️ $113 (Mar 27) ↘️ $73 (Jun 29)

Wars / conflicts rarely have lasting impacts on financial markets.

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

CLANCs = Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt.

Copper ripped 30% in Jan, then erased ~1/3 — still ~+20% YTD.

Secular shortage story → oversupply in days as inventories hit multi-year highs.

For decades, digital dominated physical. The physical world is back with a vengeance.

Are in the midst of a commodity super cycle? Yes/No

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

@elonmusk @grok FWIW, mine both said yes…still love @grok but…

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Is this really only going to be $11bn fully built and operational? I can see maybe the shell and cooling being $11bn for 2.2 GW, but I can’t imagine the $11bn includes the GPUs, servers, etc. I would think it closer to at least $80bn if not more when all said and done.

Is it fully grid-connected? Or do they have any 24/7/365 behind-the-meter power?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Amazon makes more money selling ads FOR products
than from SELLING PRODUCTS.

Estimated:
• Makes $50bn/yr profit (ads)
• LOSES $4bn/yr (retail)

Google → Meta → Amazon → Netflix
The money is ads.

Products and content pull you in.
Ads pay the bills.

As @gokulr (Godfather of Google’s ad business) says, “As a company, you either die or live long enough to become an ads company.”

If something is “cheap/free”, what’s being sold?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Everyone talks Nvidia chips or power as the AI bottlenecks.

The next one is memory — what lets AI respond quickly.

High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices are up as much as 300%, with shortages expected until 2027–2028.

AI progress is most limited by…

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

@elonmusk @Tesla_Optimus Are trade schools better value than colleges?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

The rise of the $500k electrician?

I’ve heard this claim on podcasts (e.g., @chamath on @theallinpod and @JigarShahDC on @_LatitudeMedia), but hard data is scarce.

Still, as data centers multiply, demand for electricians is exploding and skilled trade pay is being repriced.

Electricians may be the new coders…

Do you believe this?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

To be clear: I’m not saying $500k is typical.

But the direction is obvious — the digital economy is driving a boom in physical infrastructure labor.

While the average programmer is being replaced by AI, I think it will be a while before @elonmusk’s @Tesla_Optimus robots are shimming between racks and climbing ladders to install thousands of miles of electrical cables in a data center and replacing human electricians.

Kids, consider trade school over college…

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Full episodes for context:

• The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod): https://t.co/kxEUe6Rl7y

• Open Circuit (@_LatitudeMedia): https://t.co/hQAl5tcD17

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

For those asking where this comes from — here are podcast transcripts where the $500k claim is made 👇

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

A big driver: cost curves and supply dynamics.

Lithium prices collapsed after COVID as supply surged. That made batteries much cheaper — driving explosive growth in grid storage globally, even as US EV sales slowed.

At the same time, gas supply surged while renewables + storage reduced demand growth. Great for consumers. Tough for gas producers.

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Despite the noise, battery tech ($LIT) and clean energy ($ICLN) have massively outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPY) and natural gas producers ($FCG) over the last 6 months.

Economics > talking points.

Surprising?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

China is installing 180 GW of battery storage this year alone.

To put that in perspective: that’s power capacity comparable to the entire electricity demand of India — or Texas, California, and Florida combined. 🤯

The scale is unprecedented.

Is the US losing the energy race?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

In 2019, Big Tech lived in the cloud. Today, they own the ground.

Oracle, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft now account for over 1/4 of all US spending on buildings, property, and equipment (~$360bn).

In just 6 years, they went from 3% of US capex to 27%.

The “Digital Revolution” has become a massive construction project.

What is Big Tech today?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Oracle’s AI buildout:

• Future data-center rent: $250bn (~½ the company’s value)
• Rent eats ~66% of its cash flow
• Then it plans $300bn+ more building data centers

That’s like spending 2/3 of your income on rent…
while borrowing to build a new house.

How do you see Oracle’s AI bet?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

The NRF says the U.S. is on track for its first-ever $1 TRILLION holiday shopping season.

Definitely not a recession.

But here’s a twist:

• Total holiday spending +4% YoY
• Number of items bought –2%

So what’s really happening?

Are shoppers trading up to pricier gifts…
or just paying more for the same stuff because of inflation?

Holiday shopping this year?

[Joshua Packwood @JoshuaPackwood]

Kroger’s CEO says middle-income shoppers “are starting to look more like lower-income shoppers… cutting back on discretionary purchases.”

Kroger is the #2 grocer in America and skews more affluent than #1 Walmart, so a real barometer of the middle class.

What’s causing the cutback in spending?