Julien MARION

Journaliste à @BFMbusiness et @BFMbourse. Auparavant à l'agence Agefi-Dow Jones / @AgefiFrance. Aime l'économie, l'athlé, le rock, la F1 et la culture manga

[Julien MARION @Julien_MARION]

@abcbourse Dites @abcbourse ce serait sympa de mettre un lien vers notre papier écrit sur @BFMBourse, comme le veut la bienséance. Vous avez repris (pour ne pas dire plagié) le papier que nous avions écrit 2h avant le votre en changeant trois détails. Merci de nous lire et bonne année

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇯🇵 #Japan’s Tax Revenue Rose to Another Record in Latest Fiscal Year - Bloomberg
https://t.co/RRv8RElFBy

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Five months ago:
"The Dollar is doomed. Gold and Silver are going to the moon."

Five months later:
US Dollar: +7%
Gold: -26%
Silver: -50%

Narratives follow prices far more often than prices follow narratives.

Video: https://t.co/7E6VueT5mc

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Memory ETF is now the fastest ETF in history to hit $10 billion, $15 billion, $20 billion, and $25 billion in assets under management. Was launched less than 3 months ago. $DRAM

Video: https://t.co/Zv08iIKdd4

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

July has been higher for the S&P 500 an incredible 11 years in a row.

[Sonali Basak @sonalibasak]

Yes, but Goldman has also pointed out the following — this year is on track for roughly 100 deals, compared with more than 250 IPOs in 2021. There were 400 in 1999.

Buybacks are also on pace for a record year with the bank expecting it to outweigh supply for 2026.

This says two things. (A) That SpaceX and Anthropic are not necessarily indicative of the broader IPO market’s trajectory and (B) This idea of equity supply outpacing demand is probably way overblown.

[Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS]

"Among the many parallels of the stock market today versus the 1990s, one that continues to be remarkably close is the path the Nasdaq has taken since the release of ChatGPT in 2022 versus the release of the first internet browser, Netscape, in 1996... we’re just getting started if the Nasdaq analogue from the 1990s continues" --@bespokeinvest

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Wall Street Is Abandoning Bets on a Stronger Euro – Bloomberg
https://t.co/LzOVmafJfS

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Nice note from @philrosenn and @ReadOpeningBell this morning. The Mag 7 is no longer driving this 🐂 market.

[Sonali Basak @sonalibasak]

KEVIN WARSH & THE AI ECONOMY

Too many investors are mistaking a boost in GDP (output) as fueling productive capacity -- but to understand productivity, we probably do need better metrics to assess the true impact of AI. Investors have been counting on profits as one measure, but that's not going to account for improvements to quality of life per se.

Here's our @icapitalnetwork walk through of the AI ripples across productivity, workforce and inflation. Ultimately, Warsh is right that we need new means of measurement.

https://t.co/IzGnQTydnh

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

This is the growing concern, that the US’s curbs on the latest Anthropic and OpenAI models will only accelerate a shift to cheaper, open-source Chinese models. Even if they’re not as good as the top US models yet, they’re good enough. (1/2) https://t.co/KDWmGsgdRf

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

As we noted back on June 17, one of the historically weakest times of the year was here.

The S&P 500 is currently down 5 days in a row and lower 7 of 8 days.

Is this really a surprise?

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 The US bank stress test results did not get a huge amount of attention but it signals that the US banking system is not the weak link in the cycle today.

📊 The Fed tested 32 large banks under a severe recession scenario, with unemployment rising to 10%, a sharp correction in both residential and commercial real estate, and significant credit stress. Despite more than $700bn in hypothetical losses, the aggregate capital ratio would only fall from 12.8% to 11.2%.

✅ This is clearly bullish for financials but also positive for the broader US market because a solid banking system reduces the risk of a credit crunch. If banks are well capitalized, they can continue financing the economy instead of sharply cutting credit to households and businesses. This supports risk-on sentiment and reduces the risk of a systemic accident.

🏦 An other important point is that banks can also restart capital returns to shareholders. Several major institutions have already announced dividend increases or share buyback programs. Therefore, banks are not only just surviving the test but they have enough excess capital to reward shareholders.

The United States remains firmly in a position of economic and financial resilience.

*Fed link: https://t.co/7thuva3KJa

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Stocks could be seeing their typical late June swoon, but good time to remember the S&P 500 has never peaked for the year in June. This is the only month to never peak for the year.

Given the most recent ATH was on June 2, could this year be the first? I say no.

[Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq]

BofA labels this chart the "Ultimate K-shape," noting that Korean stocks (KOSPI) have surged sharply even as the Korean won has weakened against the US dollar over the same stretch.

They frame this divergence as unsustainable implying either the equity rally or the currency weakness will need to correct.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The Mag 7 down YTD and the 493 up more than 13% YTD is one of the most incredible stories from an incredible year so far.

It wasn't that long ago that most client meetings were all about why don't we only invest in these 7 stocks?

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Oil prices are no longer the dominant factor driving US Treasury yields, with the correlation between the two breaking down. US 2-year yields have reached the highest levels since February 2025, even while crude continues to decline.

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🚀 🇺🇸 Since SpaceX’s IPO, the stock has clearly outperformed Tesla. The market may be saying that Tesla is no longer necessarily Elon Musk’s purest listed story, and reflect a shift in narrative.

1️⃣ Tesla now has more to prove as the company needs to defend its EV margins, withstand aggressive Chinese competition, turn autonomy and robotaxis into real revenue, and show that its growth drivers outside the core car business can genuinely justify its valuation. The market hasn't given up on Tesla but it no longer gives it the same benefit of the doubt as before.

2️⃣ SpaceX, on the other hand, ticks many of the boxes investors love today such as launch dominance, Starlink, satellites, defense, critical infrastructure, and potentially an AI/data/compute layer built around its network. While Tesla is increasingly seen as an automaker enhanced by technology, SpaceX looks more like a global strategic infrastructure platform that is extremely hard to replicate.

⚠️ However, to me, the price does not only reflect fundamentals as part of the move can also be technical because of limited initial float, lock-ups, retail demand, scarcity of available shares and expectations of future index inclusion.

The market is saying that SpaceX is the new story to buy, while Tesla is the old story to reassess. Maybe the next logical step would be for Elon Musk to merge the two worlds. Who knows ?

*Bloomberg link: https://t.co/3d6a77iILf

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

June 17th historically kicks off one of the worst 10 day periods of the year. Will we see a June Swoon this year?

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🚨 The most important signal for Gold may come from central banks buying it for strategic reasons.

📊 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest level ever recorded in the World Gold Council survey, while only one institution said it plans to reduce its holdings.

🌏 It is worth noting that this demand is largely coming from emerging markets. Many of them are looking to gradually reduce their exposure to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. The “end of the dollar” is not coming tomorrow morning but it does point to a clear diversification of reserves in a world that is becoming more fragmented, more geopolitical, and less confident in traditional sovereign assets.

➡️ The storage issue is also worth watching as some central banks are no longer asking only how much gold they should hold, but where they should hold it. The fact that some are repatriating part of their reserves or diversifying storage locations shows that gold is once again becoming a sovereignty asset, not just a line item on a balance sheet.

In my view, the gold thesis remains solid over the medium and long term as central banks continue to see gold as a strategic asset in a world where trust in traditional reserves is gradually fragmenting.

*Bloomberg link: https://t.co/7t4xAts5og

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 US Import Prices Rise Most in Nearly Four Years on War, AI Boom - Bloomberg
https://t.co/mBnyxyylVf