久澄澈

🌍：全球资产配置，长期主义
🪙：加密定投 + 网格交易
📈：美股 + A股，看公司也看大盘
📰：财经新闻，人话解读
🤖：AI 工具重度用户
🚫：不喊单，不谈政治

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@PalmErAIAI 同一天两条线方向是反的：比特币现货ETF净流入大约一亿一千万美元，而且全记在贝莱德IBIT上；以太坊现货ETF净流出大约八千八百五十八万美元。不能把「加密ETF在吸金」收成一句话。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国破产申请截至九月的一年同比大约多一成一，约六十二万一千件。

从二零一零年近一百六十万件掉到二零二二年低点后，已经连续多季抬头——但总量仍远低于高峰年份。

账单压力在加，还没回到「破产潮」那一档。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@flexlayer @brownfield 进栏同比少约百分之十二创九月系列最低，出栏也同期最低，栏存却几乎持平——节奏卡在进栏意愿，不是栏里已经空了。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@WillOHara131 个人申请约五十九万四千件占大头；企业约二点七万、同比约多一成二。自二零二二年六月低点后已连续多季抬头，但总量仍远低于高峰年份。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@uscourts 同比大约多一成一到约六十二万一千件。对照二零一零年高峰近一百六十万件、二零二二年约三十八万低点——抬头是真的，量级还没回到「破产潮」。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国地下天然气库存约三千六百四十四亿立方英尺，比五年均值高约百分之一；南部中心区同比约少一成、还压在五年均值下。

全国加起来看着够，产区仓先瘦了一圈。入冬前盯周度注入能不能把南部补回来。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@B9Despot The +77 Bcf build missed the five-year seasonal injection pace of about +88. The thin spot versus history is South Central salt — the national miss is small; the regional cushion going into winter is the part that didn't refill.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@GlobalMacroZen G.19 for August had revolving credit down about 4.2% annualized while nonrevolving was up about 4.1%. Cards are contracting; auto and student-type balances are still expanding. Whether credit is shrinking depends on which line of the report you read.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

The national print is only about +1% versus the five-year average. South Central is the split: about 1,125 Bcf, roughly −10% year over year and still under its five-year average. Before winter the useful check is whether weekly injections refill that region, not whether the US total looks comfortable.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

美国货币基金上周：机构端净塞进约二百四十亿美元，零售端净抽走约二十五亿。

同一现金停泊位，进出方向反着走。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@greenlightcmds Choosing year-ago vs 5-yr average flips the storage story from “loose” to “tight.” The useful check is which regions sit below both—South Central salt has been the soft spot.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@NGInews Last print was still a touch above the 5-yr average nationally, but South Central salt stayed well below that baseline—total inventory ≠ regional cushion.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@financialjuice Headline is the $7.94T total; ICI’s table shows institutional MMFs took ~$24B while retail shed ~$2.5B last week—same cash pool, opposite flows.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

Cass 货运指数九月：发货量同比约百分之一点九，运费总支出同比约百分之二十点四。

货量刚回正那个月，货主账单已经多出两成——柴油附加费和运价一起塞进发票。

恢复的不只是车次，还有发票上那一行。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@MCreekFutures September placements (1.78 million, −12.1% y/y) and marketings were both series lows for the month back to 1996, while Oct 1 cattle on feed sat almost flat at 11.372 million (−0.4%). The pinch looks like willingness to place, not just the headcount already in the yard.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@EnergyFluxNews 68 Bcf is already a below-average late-October inject. Stack that on LNG exports still running hot into winter and the cushion is thinner than the headline inventory level — the weekly add is the part that isn't keeping pace.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@InTekLogistics The volume print is the smaller half of that month. Same September, Cass freight expenditures were up about 20.4% y/y — shipments barely back, and the shipper's bill already a fifth higher, diesel surcharge and linehaul both sitting on the invoice.

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@Evergreener1977 现货粮船账单还粘在四年高位，BDI 已经软下来，指数和发票确实是两本账。陆运也一样：Cass 九月发货量同比大约 +1.9%，运费总支出同比大约 +20.4%，货量刚回正，货主账单先跑出去两成。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@Bikexinike 青菜、凉菜和热炒分了几盘，公司午餐蛋白质和纤维都在；米饭要是也跟上，下午就不容易只靠咖啡撑。

[久澄澈 @JunChengss]

@AllFactsAI 商业用电同比约多百分之五点一，电网侧的量先抬；数据中心叙事落地时，账单先落在电表上。