Haider

Investing in stocks, Random thoughts

[Haider @Just_References]

https://t.co/7vDDIYnnl1

[Haider @Just_References]

@RedZoneIsb I remember some insiders buying FFC worth around 10 million, when it was around 100... Dividend yield was way too high then..

[Haider @Just_References]

@BaigShayan1234 So your model predicted war to end 10 days ago.. haha.. just joking.. GAL was beaten alot and it has to cm bk.. it's t9 and trucks are seen quiet alot..

[Haider @Just_References]

@WealthWise15992 Good. In short as you know that growth = ROEx Retention ratio.. if company paying almost all the earnings as dividends then even high ROE , from this formula gives v v little growth .. this is happening with these companies.. including fertilisers.

[Haider @Just_References]

@JawadFaroo94817 I was just checking about airlink.

Airlink at ipo price= 71.5 and
market cap =28 billion in sep 2021

Now airlink at = 155,
market cap = 60 billion

So it's double.

[Haider @Just_References]

@4ValueInvestor @Safdarranaiqbal @Zohaibj07549504 @YousufMFarooq @WealthWise15992 @DoctorInPsx @BaigShayan1234 Brother , 3 billion market cap of SAZEW means when it was at pkr 50...?? But in the end it's difficult to predict that it will sell 2200 in a month even 4/5 months ago

[Haider @Just_References]

@MeherJazibAli 2/n so sys as main IT company will be challenged with AI revolution, however for me airlink growth model is intact

[Haider @Just_References]

@MeherJazibAli Digital labour provided by Indian and Pakistani main IT companies will be given tough time with AI in coming years.. airlink based on this quarter result is expensive but it's growth model is intact with 5G and population shifting towards smartphones

[Haider @Just_References]

@Zohaibj07549504 @YousufMFarooq @4ValueInvestor @WealthWise15992 @DoctorInPsx @BaigShayan1234 bhai i have been investing since 2021 and nobody on X and youtube predicted such a growth from sazew...picking a company basis on fundamentals and believing on its growth story and gain profit from those high growth by not selling require patience and faith in that stock.

[Haider @Just_References]

@BaigShayan1234 problem with our budget and consequently on stocks is there are so many ifs, if this happen then this...Also regarding IT after AI , it has reduced routine digital labour, so it might also effect IT stocks..regarding EV, LUCK and HUBCO have lesser % in core EV business

[Haider @Just_References]

@BaigShayan1234 Brother, what is your take on IT stocks after this AI revolution .. I am asking about ur long-term perspective abt IT..

[Haider @Just_References]

@YousufMFarooq @Zohaibj07549504 @YousufMFarooq , sir are u suggesting ghni then... From what I understand between the lines ,😊

[Haider @Just_References]

@CabinInnWoods @iamlaeeqahmad @TalhaEjaz07ee Mari dividends were restricted till 2021, if I am right, now restriction is removed so they are giving handsome dividends as well.. also before 2012, the gas policy changed and giving more incentives for new discoveries by Mari..

[Haider @Just_References]

@WealthWise15992 According to raamdev , if war ends the oil will fall down not to 60/70 but to 40 USD/ barrel.. his thesis was OPEC members pulling out and flooding the market with oil.. b, c, d, e point will not be problem once war ends permanently..

[Haider @Just_References]

@YousufMFarooq Also mohnish pabrai says there are very few businesses that are great and if you found out one, with great confidence in it, that's enough.. it should be 90% of portfolio. Now he is following this philosophy with 2 businesses making up his 70% of portfolio..

[Haider @Just_References]

The issue of EV vs ICE cars and cd70 Vs electric scooty is debatable but in all such ases the distance travel/ person is increasing so tyreCompanies will definitely benefit.. if input cost is high, it will affect all tyre companies and all will pass on.. #SLM

[Haider @Just_References]

@MeherJazibAli The issue of EV vs ICE cars and cd70 Vs electric scooty is debatable but in all such ases the distance travel/ person is increasing so tyreCompanies will definitely benefit.. if input cost is high, it will affect all tyre companies and all will pass on.. #SLM

[Haider @Just_References]

2. #SLM, #psx #kse100
Forecasts
2026:
PAT=13B
Tyres = 2m
PAT / Tyre= 8125
2027:
PAT=17B
Tyres=2m
PAT/tyre=8500
2028=23.9B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=3.2m
2029:
PAT=30B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=5.1m
2030:
PAT=40B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=5.6m

[Haider @Just_References]

#SLM Service Long March Tyres #ipo #psx
MCap= 155B approx.(price about 18, at IPO)
2026Exp. PAT= 13B
P/E=12
B.V=31B
Annual TBR tyres=1.6m in 2026 increase to 2.6m in 2030
Annual PCR tyre(IPO is for this facility)=currently nil , 1m in 2028, increase to 3m in 2030

[Haider @Just_References]

2. #SLM, #psx #kse100
Forecasts
2026:
PAT=13B
Tyres = 2m
PAT / Tyre= 8125
2027:
PAT=17B
Tyres=2m
PAT/tyre=8500
2028=23.9B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=3.2m
2029:
PAT=30B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=5.1m
2030:
PAT=40B
Tyres(PCR+TBR)=5.6m

[Haider @Just_References]

#SLM Service Long March Tyres #ipo #psx
MCap= 155B approx.(price about 18, at IPO)
2026Exp. PAT= 13B
P/E=12
B.V=31B
Annual TBR tyres=1.6m in 2026 increase to 2.6m in 2030
Annual PCR tyre(IPO is for this facility)=currently nil , 1m in 2028, increase to 3m in 2030